Abstract
Many have studied whether China will democratize in the near future, but few have asked what would happen to China if China were to democratize. This paper sets out to explore this question in light of lessons from new democracies. Four lessons are drawn from new democracies. First is the importance of balancing state capacity and social power. Second is that the role of political elites can sometimes be more decisive than structural factors. Third is that culture might matter more than institutions. Fourth is the need to avoid the pitfall of economic populism. Reviewing China’s conditions through the lens of these lessons, this paper argues that factors such as state capacity, socio-economic conditions and a culture of pragmatism favor democratic consolidation in China, but the lure of “strongman” populist-authoritarianism, the tradition of uncompromising political elites and fundamentalist nationalism could sabotage a transition to democracy.
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Notes
Admittedly, each country is unique, so there is no universal rule, but problems tend to emerge in patterns, and some patterns could be more relevant than others.
[8]. P.12
But different scholars often mean different things by the concept of “state capacity.” For Fearon/Laitin, state capacity is measured by the economic level of a country.
“Dictatorship of cousins” is a term Fukuyama used in his book Origins of Political Order to describe political repression from a horizontal direction. [7].
[21]. P.98.
There are certainly some exceptions. For example, Mainwaring and Perez-Linan argued that a political actor’s normative preference mattered more than economic development in determining democratic breakdown or survival in Latin America between 1945 and 2005. See [18].
There has been a Muslim separatist insurgency in the southern tip of Thailand. But it did not become seriously violent until 2001, after Thaksin came to power.
Certainly there has been some recent degeneration of leadership in South Africa, but in general its leaders have leaned more towards unifying rather than dividing the country.
The data is from the World Development Indicators of the World Bank.
They used the concept of “self-expression values” to describe a “democratic” culture, but there are five components in the “self-expression values,” ranging from material satisfaction to activism in political participation. Later Welzel updated the concept to “emancipation values,” but the new concept is still very broad, having four components.
Egypt during its short-lived democracy adopted a mixed electoral system, but the majority of its parliamentary seats were elected through the PR system.
Yue Fei was a Han Chinese general of the Southern Song Dynasty, famous for fighting the Jurchen-ruled Jin Dynasty in northern China. Although he was sentenced to death by the emperor in 1142, his case was posthumously rectified, and his name became a symbol of heroic patriotism in China.
Although China belonged the victory camp in WWI, the major participants of the Paris Peace Conference proposed yielding German concessions in China to Japan, infuriating most Chinese. After the outbreak of protests, representatives from China eventually refused to sign the treaty.
Some elements of economic liberalism, such as financial openness or fiscal austerity during economic crises, are more debatable.
Zimbabwe had a civil war in the 1980s immediately after its independence in 1980. To blame the economic failure of Zimbabwe in the twenty-first century on the civil war of 1980s, however, would be far-fetched.
During the 2001 riots caused by an economic crisis, President Fernando De La Rua had to evacuate by helicopter.
The power of the Peronist parties can be seen from their electoral successes. Among the 12 free elections in Argentina, the Peronist party won 9.
I am certainly not suggesting dogmatic neo-liberalism, since that will often polarize a society too much, and political instability often in turn leads to economic instability. Also, some aspects of neo-liberalism, such as rapid financial liberalization and extreme austerity during crisis, can be economically harmful, as many have argued in recent years. But mild economic liberalism probably needs to be in place to avoid economic disasters.
There are different estimates regarding China’s inequality level, with the upper estimate reaching 0.61 (almost the highest in the world) and the official estimate below 0.5. Xie, an expert on this subject, estimates that the number closest to reality is 0.52. See [25].
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Liu, Y. Lessons of New Democracies for China. J OF CHIN POLIT SCI 23, 105–120 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11366-017-9493-8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11366-017-9493-8