Abstract
In recent years, guidelines have been developed for supporting water managers in dealing with uncertainty in integrated water resources management (IWRM). Usually such guidelines have concentrated on certain aspects of processes in IWRM, notably on uncertainty associated with the modelling process and monitoring data. While this is of undisputed importance for supporting water managers in making well balanced and informed decisions, less attention has been paid to guiding policy makers in where uncertainty may emerge when considering the whole water management process. In this paper it is assessed in what way the policy makers can benefit from support in accounting for uncertainty at various stages in the water management process. Point of departure is an analysis of a broad range of uncertainty guidelines and their categorization in the water management process using a recently developed framework. Emphasis is on linking sources of uncertainty to uncertainty guidelines from an applied point of view in water management by developing a way to assist water managers to deal with uncertainty in IWRM and make informed and robust decisions. To support this, the Upper Guadiana basin in Spain and three Rhine basins are used as cases for water management issues in which it is demonstrated how water managers potentially can benefit from uncertainty guidelines in support of policy making, for instance with respect to implementation of the Water Framework Directive (WFD).
Similar content being viewed by others
References
ACLASS (2007) Available at: http://www.aclasscorp.com/docs/aclassguidance/ACLASSGuidance-UncertaintyCalibration.pdf
Antunes P, Santos R, Videira N (2006) Participatory decision making for sustainable development—the use of mediated modelling techniques. Land Use Policy 23:44–52
Beven K (2009) Environmental modelling: an uncertain future? Routledge, Oxon, UK, p 305
Bouwen R, Dewulf A, Craps M (2005) Participatory development of technology innovation projects: collaborative learning among different communities of practice. Anales Revista de la Universidad de Cuenca
Bromley J, Jackson NA, Clymer OJ, Giacomello AM, Jensen FV (2005) The use of HUGIN to develop Bayesian networks as an aid to integrated water resources planning. Environ Model Softw 20:231–242
Brouwer R (2005) Uncertainties in the economic analysis of the European Water Framework Directive. Report number E05-03. July 14, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam / IVM
Brouwer R, De Blois C (2008) Integrated modelling of risk and uncertainty underlying the cost and effectiveness of water quality measures. Environ Model Softw 23:922–937
Brown JD (2004) Knowledge, uncertainty and physical geography: towards the development of methodologies for questioning belief. Trans Inst Br Geogr 29:367–381
Brown JD, Heuvelink GBM (2007) The data Uncertainty Engine (DUE): a software tool for assessing and simulating uncertain environmental variables. Comput Geosci 33:172–190
Brugnach M, Pahl-Wostl C (2007) A broadened view on the role for models in natural resources management. In: Pahl-Wostl C, Kabat P, Möltgen J (eds) Adaptive and integrated water management. Coping with complexity and uncertainty. Springer, Berlin, ISBN 978-3-540-75940-9
Brugnach M, van der Keur P, Henriksen H-J, Mysiak J (2009) Uncertainty and adaptive water management. Concepts and guidelines. A NeWater SP-2 product. Prepared under contract from the European Commission. Contract no 511179 (GOCE). Integrated Project in PRIORITY 6.3 Global Change and Ecosystems in the 6th EU framework programme. ISBN forthcoming
Cooke RM (1991) Experts in uncertainty. Oxford University Press, pp 321, ISBN 0-19-506465-8
Costanza R (2000) Visions of alternative (unpredictable) futures and their use in policy analysis. Conservation Ecology 4(1), (on-line)
De Marchi B, Funtowicz S, Lo Cascio S, Munda G (2000) Combining participative and institutional approaches with multicriteria evaluation. An empirical study for water issues in Troina, Sicily. Ecol Econ 34:267–282
Deltacommissie (2008) Working together with water. A living land builds for its future. Findings of the Deltacommissie 2008. Available from: http://www.deltacommissie.com/doc/deltareport_full.pdf
Dewulf A, Craps M, Bouwen R, Pahl-Wostl C (2005) Integrated management of natural resources dealing with ambiguous issues, multiple actors and diverging frames. Water Sci Technol 52(6):115–124
EPA (1997) Guiding principles for Monte Carlo analysis. Risk assessment forum, US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC 20460. Available from: http://www.epa.gov/raf/publications/guiding-monte-carlo-analysis.htm
Funtowicz SO, Ravetz JR (1990) Uncertainty and quality in science for policy. Kluwer, Dordrecht, p 229
Grontmij (2007a) GGOR watergebiedsplan Kromme Rijngebied, Grontmij, April 2007 (in Dutch)
Grontmij (2007b) GGOR watergebiedsplan ‘Tussen Kromme Rijn en Amsterdam-Rijnkanaal’—resultaten scenarioberekeningen, Grontmij, July 2007 (in Dutch)
Grontmij (2007c) Hydraulische analyse Kromme Rijn gebied, Grontmij, April 2007 (in Dutch)
Helling A (1998) Collaborative visioning: proceed with caution!: results from evaluating Atlanta’s Vision 2020 project. J Am Plan Assoc 64:335–350
Henriksen HJ, Barlebo HC (2008) Reflection on the use of Bayesian belief networks for adaptive management. J Environ Manag 88:1025–1036
Henriksen HJ, Rasmussen P, Brandt G, von Bülow D, Jensen FV (2007a) Public participation modelling using Bayesian belief networks in management of groundwater contamination. Environ Model Softw 22:1101–1113
Henriksen HJ, Rasmussen P, Bromley J, Portillo ADLH, Llamas MR (2007b) Bayesian belief networks as a tool for participatory integrated assessment and adaptive groundwater management: the Upper Guadiana Basin, Spain. Geol Surv Den Greenl Bull 13:62–72
Henriksen HJ, Refsgaard JC, Højberg AL, Ferrand N, Gijsbers P, Scholten H (2009) Harmonised principles for public participation in quality assurance of integrated water resources modelling. Water Resour Manage 23:2539–2554
Hill T, Westbrook R (1997) SWOT analysis: it’s time for a product recall. Long Range Plan 30(1):46–52
Hommes S, Vinke-de Kruijf J, Otter HS, Bouma G (2009) Knowledge and perceptions in participatory policy processes: lessons from the delta-region in The Netherlands. Water Resour Manage 23:1641–1663
IPCC (2005) Guidance notes for lead authors of the IPCC fourth assessment report on addressing uncertainties. Available at: http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Report/AR4_UncertaintyGuidanceNote.pdf
IPCC (2007) Uncertainty management in the IPCC: agreeing to disagree. Glob Environ Change 17:8–11
Isendahl N, Dewulf A, Brugnach M, Francois G, Möllenkamp S, Pahl-Wostl C (2009) Assessing framing of uncertainties in water management practice. Water Resour Manage 23:3191–9429
Janssen PHM, Petersen AC, van der Sluijs JP, Risbey JS, Ravetz J (2003) RIVM/MNP, 2003. Quickscan Hints & Actions List. Available from www.rivm.nl
Janssen PHM, Petersen AC, van der Sluijs JP, Risbey JS, Ravetz JR (2005) A guidance for assessing and communicating uncertainties. Water Sci Technol 52(6):125–131
Jønch-Clausen T (2004) Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) and water efficiency plans by 2005. Why, What and How? TEC Background Paper No 10, Global Water Partnership, Stockholm
Jones KE (2005) Understanding risk in everyday policy-making. DEFRA report. Available at: www.defra.goc.uk
Kallis G, Hatzilacou D, Mexa A, Coccossis H, Svoronou E (2009) Beyond the manual: practicing deliberative visioning in a Greek island. Ecol Econ 68:979–989
Kanning W, van Gelder P (2007) Analysis and influence of uncertainties on the reliability of flood defence systems. FLOODsite report. http://www.floodsite.net
Kloprogge P, van der Sluijs JP, Wardekker A (2007) Uncertainty communication. Issues and good practice. Report NWS-E-2007-199. ISBN 978-90-8672-026-2. Available from www.mnp.nl
Krupnick A, Morgernstern R, Batz M, Nelson P, Burtraw D, Shih JS, McWilliams M (2006) Not a sure thing: making regulatory choices under uncertainty. Resources for the future. http://www.rff.org/rff/Documents/RFF-Rpt-RegulatoryChoices.pdf
Matott LS, Babendreier JE, Purucker ST (2009) Evaluating uncertainty in integrated environmental models: a review of concepts and tools. Water Resour Res 45:W06421
Middelkoop H, van Asselt MBA, van Klooster SA, van Deursen WPA, Kwadijk JCJ, Buiteveld H (2004) Perspectives on flood management in the Rhine and Meuse rivers. River Res Appl 20:327–342
Morgan MG, Henrion M (1990) Uncertainty. A guide to dealing with uncertainty in quantitative risk and policy analysis. Cambridge University Press, Melbourne, p 325
Munda G (2004) Social multi-criteria evaluation: methodological foundations and operational consequences. Eur J Oper Res 158:662–677
National Civic League (2000) The community visioning and strategic planning handbook. The National Civic League, Denver, CO
Neuman SP, Wierenga PJ (2003) A comprehensive strategy of hydrogeologic modeling and uncertainty analysis for nuclear facilities and sites. University of Arizona, Report NUREG/CR-6805. http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/nuregs/contract/cr6805/cr6805.pdf
Newig J, Pahl-Wostl C, Sigel K (2005) The role of public participation in managing uncertainty in the implementation of the water framework directive. Eur Environ 15:333–343
Pahl-Wostl C, Sendzimir P (2005) The relationship between IWRM and adaptive management. Newater working paper no. 3.
Pascual P, Stiber N, Sunderland E (2003) Draft guidance on the development, evaluation, and application of regulatory environmental models. http://www.epa.gov/osp/crem/
Petersen AC (2006) A philosophical study of computer-simulation uncertainties and their role in climate science and policy advice. Doctoral thesis, ISBN 978 90 5598 280 8. Spinhuis Publishers, Apeldoorn, The Netherlands
Petersen AC, Janssen PHM, van der Sluijs JP, Risbey J, Ravetz JR (2003) RIVM/MNP guidance for uncertainty assessment and communication. Mini-Checklist and Quickscan Questionnaire. RIVM report, ISBN 90-6960-104-4. http://www.nusap.net
Raadgever GT, Mostert E, van de Giesen NC (2008) Identification of stakeholder perspectives on future flood management in the Rhine basin using Q methodology. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 12:1097–1109
Refsgaard JC, Nilsson B, Brown J, Klauer B, Moore R, Bech T, Vurro M, Blind M, Castilla G, Tsanis I, Biza P (2005a) Harmonised techniques and representative river basin data for assessment and use of uncertainty information in integrated water management (HarmoniRiB). Environ Sci Policy 8:267–277
Refsgaard JC, Henriksen HJ, Harrar WG, Scholten H, Kassahun A (2005b) Quality assurance in model based water management—review of existing practice and outline of new approaches. Environ Model Softw 20:1201–1215
Refsgaard JC, van der Sluijs JP, Brown J, van der Keur P (2006) A framework for dealing with uncertainty due to model structure error. Adv Water Resour 29:1586–1597
Refsgaard JC, van der Sluijs JP, Højberg AL, VanRolleghem P (2007) Uncertainty in the environmental modelling process—a framework and guidance. Environ Model Softw 22:1543–1556
Risbey J, van der Sluijs JP, Kloprogge P, Ravetz J, Funtowicz S, Corral Quintana S (2005) Application of a checklist for quality assistance in environmental modelling to an energy model. Environ Model Assess 10(1):63–79
Schaafsma M, Brouwer R (2006) Overview of existing guidelines and manuals for the economic valuation of environmental and resource costs and benefits. An AquaMoney document. http://www.aquamoney.ecologic-events.de/sites/download/aquamoney-overview-guidelines.pdf
Scholten H, Kassahun A, Refsgaard JC, Kargas T, Gavardinas C, Beulens AJM (2007) A methodology to support multidisciplinary model-based water management. Environ Model Softw 22:743–759
Shipley R (2002) Visioning in planning: is the practice based on sound theory?. Environ Plan A 34:7–22
Stael von Holstein CS, Matheson JE (1979) A manual for encoding probability distributions. SRI International, Menlo Park, CA
van der Keur P, Henriksen HJ, Refsgaard J-C, Brugnach M, Pahl-Wostl C, Dewulf A, Buiteveld H (2008) Identification of major sources of uncertainty in current IWRM practice. Illustrated for the Rhine Basin. Water Resour Manage 22:1677–1708
van der Sluijs JP, Risbey JS, Kloprogge P, Ravetz JR, Funtowicz S, Quintana SC, Pereira AG, De Marchi B, Petersen AC, Janssen PHM, Hoppe R, Huijs WF (2003) RIVM/MNP guidance for uncertainty assessment and communication. RIVM/MNP report. http://www.nusap.net
van der Sluijs JP, Janssen PHM, Petersen AC, Kloprogge P, Risbey JS, Tuinstra W, Ravetz JR (2004) RIVM/MNP guidance for uncertainty assessment and communication tool catalogue for uncertainty. Utrecht University. http://www.nusap.net
van der Sluijs JP, Craye M, Funtowicz SO, Kloprogge P, Ravetz J, Risbey J (2005) Combining quantitative and qualitative measures of uncertainty in model based foresight studies: the NUSAP system. Risk Anal 25(2):481–492
van der Sluijs JP, Petersen AC, Janssen PHM, Risbey JS, Ravetz J (2008) Exploring the quality of evidence for complex and contested policy decisions. Environ Res Lett 3:024008
van Loon E, Refsgaard J-C (eds) (2005) Guidelines for assessing data uncertainty in river basin management studies. Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Copenhagen. http://www.harmonirib.com
Van Stokkom HT, Smits AJ, Leuven RS (2005) Flood defence in The Netherlands, a new era a new approach. Water Int 30(1):76–87
Visser H, Petersen AC, Beusen AHV, Heuberger PSC, Janssen PHM (2006) Guidance for uncertainty assessment and communication: checklist for uncertainty in spatial information and visualising spatial uncertainty. MNP report. http://www.mnp.nl/bibliotheek/rapporten/550032001.pdf
Walker WE, Harremoës P, Rotmans J, van der Sluijs JP, van Asselt MBA, Janssen P, Krayer von Krauss MP (2003) Defining uncertainty. A conceptual basis for uncertainty management in model based decision support. Integr Assess 4(1):5–17
Wardekker JA, van der Sluijs JP, Janssen PHM, Kloprogge P, Petersen AC (2008) Uncertainty communication in environmental assessments: views from the Dutch science–policy interface. Environ Sci Policy 11:627–641
Weisbord M, Janoff S (2000) Future search. An action guide to finding common ground in organizations and communities. Berrett-Koehler Publishers, San Francisco
Xu YP, Tung YK (2009) Decision making in water management under uncertainty. Water Resour Manage 22:535–550
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
van der Keur, P., Brugnach, M., Dewulf, A. et al. Identifying Uncertainty Guidelines for Supporting Policy Making in Water Management Illustrated for Upper Guadiana and Rhine Basins. Water Resour Manage 24, 3901–3938 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-010-9640-x
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-010-9640-x