Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

The sustainability of tourism income on economic growth: does education matter?

  • Published:
Quality & Quantity Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This article examines the impact of detailed tourism expenditure on the long-run economic growth by employing autoregressive distributed lag approach and Hatemi causality test to investigate causality for 2005:I to 2012:1 in Turkey. New data set tourism detailed expenditure—is employed that has not previously been used for the causality of tourism expenditure on economic growth. The results of the bounds test show that there is a sustainable long-run relationship between each of the tourism expenditure and economic growth. The results of the causality test, on the other hand, show that there is bidirectional causality between university graduate tourists’ expenditure and economic growth and a causal flow from high school tourism expenditure to GDP growth which is verified growth-led tourism hypothesis. Results reveal that university and post graduate degree with tourists’ expenditure is more successful on explaining the long-run relationship between tourism expenditure and economic growth in Turkey. This result implies a policy that, although Turkey need to focus more on tourism development for all level of education to reach higher real income levels; policy makers should concentrate on attracting the attention of university graduate tourist to gain more from tourism industry.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. Asymmetric causal effects stemming from asymmetric information phenomenon and absence of no separation between the causal impacts of positive or negative shocks are some of the most important factors that determine causality among variables. Since Toda-Yamamoto procedure does not take this asymmetric structure into account, this paper uses causality test developed by Hatemi (2012) which is good at dealing with this problem.

References

  • Arslanturk, Y., Balcilar, M., Ozdemir, Z.A.: Time-varying linkages between tourism receipts and economic growth in a small open economy. Econ. Model. 28(2011), 664–671 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Aslan, A.: Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyüme ve Turizm İlişkisi Üzerine Ekonometrik Analiz. Erciyes Üniversitesi SBE Dergisi 24, 1–11 (2008)

    Google Scholar 

  • Balaguer, L., Cantavella-Jorda, M.: Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: the Spanish case. Appl. Econ. 34, 877–884 (2002)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brown, R.L., Durbin, J., Evans, J.M.: Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relationships over time. J. Roy. Stat. Soc. 37, 149–163 (1975)

  • Chien-Chiang, Lee, Chun-Ping, Chang: Tourism development and economic growth: a closer look at panels. Tour. Manag. 29, 180–192 (2008)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Demiroz, D.M., Ongan, S.: The contribution of tourism to the long run Turkish economic growth. Ekonomický Časopis 9, 880–894 (2005)

    Google Scholar 

  • Gunduz, L., Hatemi, J.A.: Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey? Appl. Econ. Lett. 12, 499–504 (2005)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Halicioglu, F.: An econometric analysis of the aggregate outbound tourism demand of Turkey. Tour. Econ. 16(1), 83–97 (2010). March 2010 (15)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hannan, E.J., Quinn, B.G.: The determination of the order of an autoregression. J. Roy. Stat. Soc. 41, 190–195 (1979)

    Google Scholar 

  • Hatemi, J.A.: A new method to choose optimal lag order in stable and unstable VAR models. Appl. Econ. Lett. 10, 135–137 (2003)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hatemi, J.A.: Asymmetric causality tests with an application. Empirical Economics (2012). doi:10.1007/s00181-011-0484-x

  • Hazari, B.R., Ng, A.: An analysis of tourists’ consumption of non-traded goods and services on the welfare of the domestic consumers. Int. Rev. Econ. Financ. 2, 43–58 (1993)

  • Husein, Jamal, Kara, S.Murat: Research note: re-examining the tourism-led growth hypothesis for Turkey. Tour. Econ. 17(4), 917–924 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Katircioglu, S.T.: Revising the tourism-led-growth hypothesis for Turkey using the bounds test and Johansen approach for cointegration. Tour. Manag. 30, 17–20 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kumar, R.R.: Exploring the nexus between tourism, remittances and growth in Kenya. Qual. Quant. 48(3), 1573–1588 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lanquar, R.: Tourism in the Mediterranean: scenarios up to 2030. MEDPRO Report No. 1 (2013)

  • Leybourne, S.J., Kim, T., Newbold, P.: Examination of some more powerful modifications of the Dickey–Fuller test. J. Time Ser. Anal. 26, 355–369 (2005)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ozturk, I., Acaravci, A.: On the causality between tourism growth and economic growth: empirical evidence from Turkey. Transylv. Rev. Adm. Sci. 25E(2009), 73–81 (2009)

    Google Scholar 

  • Park, H.J., Fuller, W.A.: Alternative estimators and unit root tests for the autoregressive process. J. Time Ser. Anal. 16, 415–429 (1995)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., Smith, R.J.: Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. J. Appl. Econ. 16, 289–326 (2001)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schwarz, G.: Estimating the dimension of a model. Ann. Stat. 6, 461–464 (1978)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wan-Chen, Po, Bwo-Nung, Huang: Tourism development and economic growth—a nonlinear approach. Phys. A 387(2008), 5535–5542 (2008)

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Economics, Nevsehir Hacı Bektas Veli University, 50300, Nevsehir, Turkey

    Alper Aslan

Authors
  1. Alper Aslan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Alper Aslan.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Aslan, A. The sustainability of tourism income on economic growth: does education matter?. Qual Quant 49, 2097–2106 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-014-0095-7

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-014-0095-7

Keywords

Search

Navigation