Abstract
The increasingly globalized and networked world coupled with enlarging spatial scope and severity of natural and man-made hazards are leading to significant cross-boundary impacts. It has not been adequately addressed that how those impacts transmit from one (sub-) system/network to another and how the socioeconomic systems respond. This paper examines the impact of the global economic crisis and the Tohoku earthquake on Sino–Japan trade based on trade data released by the Japanese Ministry of Finance. Our time series analysis model shows that in the short term, the economic crisis has an impact of 66 % larger than that of the earthquake. The impact of economic crisis is more acute and deep due to the collapse of consumers’ and investors’ confidence, but for the earthquake, it is more gradual as the impact spreads via production chain and supply chain across industries and regions. The pattern implies critical difference in disaster risk reduction strategies for the two types of catastrophes.
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Acknowledgments
This work was supported by 111 project “Hazard and Risk Science Base at Beijing Normal University” under Grant B08008, Ministry of Education and State Administration of Foreign Experts Affairs, People’s Republic of China and the 973 project “Adaptation Paradigms to Global and China’s Environmental Risks” under Grant 2012CB955404, Ministry of Science and Technology of China. Last but not least, the authors would also like to thank the Editor and anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments and remarks.
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Li, M., Ye, T., Shi, P. et al. Impacts of the global economic crisis and Tohoku earthquake on Sino–Japan trade: a comparative perspective. Nat Hazards 75, 541–556 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1335-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1335-9