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Spatiotemporal variability of winter wheat phenology in response to weather and climate variability in China

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Abstract

Weather and climate variability are predicted to impact food security by altering crop growth, phenology, and yield processes. Adaptation measures are critical for reducing future vulnerability of crop production to warming weather and climate variability. It is therefore vital to investigate the shifts in crop phenological processes in response to weather/climate variability. This study analyzes the trends in the dates of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) phenology in relation to average temperature of different growth stage and the adaptation of the crop to weather/climate variability in China. The results suggest that the phenological phases of winter wheat have specific regional patterns in China. There are also significant shifts in the dates of winter wheat phenology and the duration of the growth stages in the investigated 30-year period of 1980–2009. While the date of sowing winter wheat delays, the dates of post-winter phenological phases (e.g., heading and maturity dates) advances in most areas of China. Detailed analysis shows that the changes in the phenological phases of winter wheat are strongly related to temperature trends. Temporal trends in phenological phases of winter wheat are similar in characteristics to corresponding trends in temperature. Although warming weather and climate variability is the main driver of the changes in winter wheat phenology, temperature is lower than before in most of the investigated stations during the period from heading to maturity—mainly the grain-filling stage. This is mainly due to the early heading and maturity dates, which in turn not only prolong growth stages but also enhance productivity of winter wheat. This could be a vital adaptation strategy of winter wheat to warming weather with beneficial effects in terms of productivity.

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Acknowledgments

This study is supported by the National Science Foundation of China (Project No. 41071030), the Science and Technology Strategic Pilot Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Project No. XDA05090308), the National Key Program for Developing Basic Sciences in China (Project No. 2010CB950902), and Science Foundation of Hebei Academy of Sciences (Project No. 13123). We acknowledge the invaluable comments of the anonymous reviewers during the manuscript stage.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China

    Dengpan Xiao, Juana P. Moiwo, Fulu Tao, He Zhang & Fengshan Liu

  2. Institute of Geographical Sciences, Hebei Academy of Sciences, Shijiazhuang, 050011, China

    Dengpan Xiao, Quanhong Xu & Jianfeng Liu

  3. Center for Agricultural Resources Research, Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shijiazhuang, 050021, China

    Dengpan Xiao, Yonghui Yang & Yanjun Shen

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  1. Dengpan Xiao
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  2. Juana P. Moiwo
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  3. Fulu Tao
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  4. Yonghui Yang
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  5. Yanjun Shen
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  6. Quanhong Xu
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  7. Jianfeng Liu
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  8. He Zhang
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  9. Fengshan Liu
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Fulu Tao.

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Xiao, D., Moiwo, J.P., Tao, F. et al. Spatiotemporal variability of winter wheat phenology in response to weather and climate variability in China. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 20, 1191–1202 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-013-9531-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-013-9531-6

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