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Consumption-related emotions over time: Fit between prediction and experience

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Abstract

Consumers base many decisions on affective forecasts, i.e., predictions about future emotions. These predictions, however, are susceptible to systematic biases. The present paper examines the accuracy of predicting emotional change in the consumer context. The goals of the study were to examine whether predictions of a change in consumption-related emotions fit actual experienced change and whether original predictions are remembered correctly. A two-wave longitudinal survey with 86 consumers in Austria and the UK showed that consumers who had bought shoes overestimated the decrease of positive consumption-related emotions over time. Results indicate that the intuitive theory of adaptation is related to the prediction bias. Moreover, participants misremembered original predictions as more consistent with actual experienced emotions. This hindsight bias hinders consumers from learning from previous prediction errors.

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Notes

  1. An ANCOVA was also conducted, including the variables age and general feeling at wave two as covariates, as these variables were found to differ between conditions or countries. The analysis revealed the same results with a significant time effect, F(3, 246) = 9.97, p < .01, a non-significant group effect, F(1, 80) = 2.37, p = .13, a non-significant country effect, F(1, 80) = 0.93, p = .34, and non-significant interactions (group × country: F(1, 80) = 0.03, p = .86; group × time: F(3, 246) = 0.17, p = .91; country × time: F(3, 246) = 0.52, p = .67; group × country × time: F(3, 246) = 0.49, p = .69). Neither age (β = −0.11, p = .38) nor general feeling at wave two (β = 0.09, p = .41) had a significant effect.

  2. This difference between predictions and current emotions at wave two also remained significant accounting for current emotions at wave one as covariate, F(1, 85) = 5.58, p = .02.

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Acknowledgments

We thank Nina Stonitsch for her help in data collection.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Psychology, Institute of Economic Psychology, Educational Psychology and Evaluation, University of Vienna, Universitaetsstrasse 7, 1010, Vienna, Austria

    Maria Pollai & Erik Hoelzl

  2. School of Psychology, Washington Singer Laboratories, University of Exeter, Perry Road, Exeter, EX4 4QG, UK

    Flavia Possas

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  1. Maria Pollai
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  2. Erik Hoelzl
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Correspondence to Maria Pollai.

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Pollai, M., Hoelzl, E. & Possas, F. Consumption-related emotions over time: Fit between prediction and experience. Mark Lett 21, 397–411 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11002-009-9090-5

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