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Too little, too early: California’s transient advantage in the photovoltaic solar industry

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Abstract

Throughout its brief history, California has established itself as a national or international leader in key industries—such as aerospace, computing and entertainment—through early mover pre-emption and strong clustering effects. California firms were the initial world leaders in producing photovoltaic (PV) solar cells and dominated the initial aerospace niche market. However, these early efforts failed to create a durable cluster, and when the U.S. market lost interest in renewable energy during the 1990s, California firms were largely surpassed by Japanese, German and Chinese producers that focused on the mass market of using PV to displace fossil fuels for electricity generation. This paper reviews the history of the California PV producers in three phases: aerospace niche markets of the 1950s and 1960s, a brief policy-induced effort at electricity generation in the 1980s, and a twenty first century resurgence fueled by Silicon Valley venture capital. It then discusses why the early entry of the California firms failed to translate to sustained advantage for the firms or the region.

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Notes

  1. A summary of solar hot water and solar thermal power in California from 1900 to 2010 can be found in West (2011).

  2. Company president H. Leslie Hoffman moved to Los Angeles in 1929, and in 1941 “took over a bankrupt Los Angeles radio manufacturing company” (Hoffman 1957: vi).

  3. The manned Gemini and Apollo missions lasted less than two weeks and were powered by fuel cells.

  4. Such a calculation would not include mounting, installation or DC/AC conversion, which today account for about half the price of a completed solar system. Still, recently such a system (fully installed) would cost about $80,000 (Pinkham 2009), about a 20-fold improvement in 50 years.

  5. In contrast to JPL’s $21 million average annual allotment, NSF funding for all US solar research in FY1974 totaled $12 million (Los Angeles Times 1973). However, total Energy Dept. funding for photovoltaic research and other expenditures reached $159 m in FY1980 (Roessner 1982).

  6. PV facilities are customarily measured by their peak total panel (DC) power output, even though 10–20% of that power is lost in the conversion (via an inverter) to AC.

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Acknowledgments

Thanks to Steve Casper, David McFeeley and two anonymous reviewers for helpful suggestions. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 2011 Technology Transfer Conference.

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Correspondence to Joel West.

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West, J. Too little, too early: California’s transient advantage in the photovoltaic solar industry. J Technol Transf 39, 487–501 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10961-012-9291-6

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