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Beyond Replication: the Quantification of Route Models in the North Jazira, Iraq

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Abstract

The primary aim of this paper is to present a solution to the issue of the statistical validation of route models. In addition, it introduces a body of theory taken from the broader field of route studies, isolates individual physical variables commonly used to predict route locations and quantifies them against the preserved hollow ways in the North Jazira Survey area, ending with a discussion of the complexity of human travel and the paramount importance of cultural variables.

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Notes

  1. This approach assumes that the optimization of routes is a spatial problem. This is not always the case, particularly in mountainous terrain. Anonymous reviewer 2 correctly points out that the fastest route and the second fastest route to a location may be spatially distant to each other. The best example of this scenario is a mountainous area where two parallel valleys lead to the same destination in nearly the same amount of time. If a researcher is interested in finding out how much a preserved route overlaps the optimal route model (k) and the nearly optimal route models (k − 1, k − 2,…, k − n), then it will be necessary to construct these precise models, use the method described here to record the overlap of the preserved routes to each of the constructed models, then add the rates together for a total rate overlap for k to k − n. In some cases, as anonymous reviewer 2 critiqued, the difference between optimal route model (k) and the slightly less optimal model (k − n) may be insignificant, for example: a route that is 5 h and 23 min long compared to a route that is 5 h and 21 min long.

  2. In this case, the underlying data are an SRTM (version 2) DEM projected using WGS_1984.

  3. A two-tailed Z-test is useful, because it informs not only if the model variable significantly accounts for the location of the hollow ways, but also if it significantly does not account for their location. The latter is informative for thinking of other variables to test that might have played a (positively) significant role.

  4. Bootstrapping advice provided in the Stats4Grads seminar series at the Mathematics Department, Durham University.

  5. The volume and frequency of repeated travel along a route necessary to create a hollow way in the Jazira (or elsewhere) remain unknown.

  6. In a previous study, the physical variable ease accurately predicted the location of the historically known High Road, also a branch of the so-called “Silk Road”, through the North Central Zagros Mountains (de Gruchy 2008).

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Acknowledgments

I would like to thank Graham Philip and Tony Wilkinson who have both been extremely supportive reading through the many earlier drafts of this article, providing endless constructive feedback and advice. Also, acknowledgements are due to Nick Vivyan who did not know how to compare two lines quantitatively but said that whatever the solution is, it involves turning my lines into numbers that can be entered into a table somehow; Jason Ur who kindly gave permission to make use of his vector file which provides a digitized map from CORONA imagery of the hollow ways across the North Jazira; and Andy Bevan who, several years ago, gave me full permission to use a SRTM DEM that he had prepared, which is the same DEM file used for the analysis presented here. Finally, the four anonymous reviewers have been enormously helpful, providing a wealth of constructive criticism that has served to strengthen the article.

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Correspondence to Michelle W. de Gruchy.

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de Gruchy, M.W. Beyond Replication: the Quantification of Route Models in the North Jazira, Iraq. J Archaeol Method Theory 23, 427–447 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10816-015-9247-x

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