Abstract
The Central Vietnamese coast faces increasing impacts on the local livelihoods of coastal communities as a result of the increasing natural hazards which include tropical storms, heavy rains, and floods. A challenge for the local populations is improving their adaptation capacity to climate change hazards in a sustainable way. This study deals with the impacts of climate change-associated hazards and adaptation capacity in coastal communes of the Ky Anh district, Ha Tinh province along the coast in Central Vietnam. A combination of the Stakeholder Delphi technique and the DPSIR (drivers–pressures–states–impacts–responses) framework was used. Delphi questionnaires allowed assessing the consensus among the respondents of a stakeholder group. Twenty questions and 20 statements were listed reflecting the DPSIR components. Thirty-six panel members, which were randomly selected from four stakeholder groups which included local authorities, farmers, fishermen, and fish traders, were involved in a two-round Delphi process. The results show that, both agricultural and non-agricultural sectors are main drivers (D); migration, calamities, population growth, mineral mining, aquaculture processing, and agriculture are main pressures (P); changes in the frequency of extreme weather events, increasing intensity of storms, floods, and droughts indicate main states (S); changes in agricultural land use and productivity are main impacts (I); construction of and upgrading dykes and irrigation systems should be the principal responses (R) in the vision of the local stakeholders. The Kendall’s W value for the second round is 0.681, indicating a high degree of consensus among the panel members and confidence in the ranks. Overall, the study advocates developing sustainable ecosystems, an upgraded New Rural Planning, and renewable energy strategies as the main local adaptations to climate change hazards in this area.
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Acknowledgments
This study is in partial fulfillment of the key point project QGTĐ.13.10 funded by Vietnam National University (VNU), Hanoi. The authors are in debt to the households, the district and commune authorities who were collaborative in completing the questionnaires, and in providing discussion opportunities on the results.
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Appendices
Appendix 1: Revised open questions in the round 1
Original questions | Revision |
|---|---|
1. The use of scientific terminology, such as “extreme weather,” “climate change,” or “climate change adaptation,” resulted in confusion among the respondents. | These terms were replaced by a simpler, more correct and more understandable vocabulary, including “floods,” “prolonged droughts,” and “tides.” |
2. Fuzzy terms resulted in misunderstandings by the respondents. | For instance, “agricultural human activities” has been changed to “agricultural activities of the local people” |
3. The content of section 1: One question (item 2) has been added: “In your opinion, what are the economic impacts apart from the agricultural sector on the quality of the local environment?” | This replies to the finding that also non-agricultural economic industries have important effects on the climate and the local environment in Ky Anh. |
4. The impacts of climate change on local people: Next to negative effects, climate change also has positive impacts on locals. | Item 5 was added: “In your opinion, does the tidal phenomenon that changes seasonal planting have any positive impact?” If the answer is yes, respondents are requested to move to question 6—Impact “What are these beneficial effects?” |
5. Add the question, “What are the specific measures to reduce the negative impacts of climate change?” | Item 5 has been added: “To reduce global warming, it is indicated to invest more in renewable energy. What are these sustainable energy resources?” |
Appendix 2: Questions on drivers (D) and reply by the respondents in round 1
Code | Question | Most frequently selected alternative | Number of responses/total number of responses | Symbol used in round 2 statement (S-code) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Q_1.1 | What are the main drivers of agriculture adversely affecting the environment? | Over-use and improper use of fertilizers and pesticides | 9/36 | S_1.1 |
Over-use of fertilizers and plant protection chemicals | 8/36 | |||
Q_1.2 | What are the main drivers of non-agricultural activities adversely affecting the environment? | Mining | 17/36 | S_1.2 |
Transport | 6/36 |
Appendix 3: Questions on pressures (P) and reply by the respondents in round 1
Code | Questions | Most frequently selected alternative | Number of responses | Symbol of the round 2 statement (S-code) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Q_2.1 | What are main pressures of change in agricultural production? | Migration | 25/36 | S_2.1 |
Calamities | 21/36 | |||
Population growth | 12/36 | |||
Q_2.2 | Which groups of people were most affected by calamities and climate change hazards? | Farmers, fishermen, and fish traders | 36/36 | S_2.2 |
Q_2.3 | Which sectors were most affected by calamities and climate change? | Mining industry, processing industry and agriculture | 36/36 | S_2.3 |
Appendix 4: Questions on state (S) and reply by the respondents in round 1
Code | Questions | Most frequently selected alternative | Number of responses | Symbol of the round 2 statement (S-code) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Q_3.1 | How long do extreme weather events occur more frequently and more destructive during recent years? | From 10 to 20 years | 18/36 | S_3.1 |
Q_3.2 | What were phenomena of climate change hazards during past years? | The frequency and intensity of storms increase | 18/36 | S_3.2 |
Duration of storms, floods, and droughts increases | 34/36 | |||
Extreme weather events cause more damage | 35/36 | |||
Q_3.3 | How did climate change hazards alter agricultural activities? | Considerable change | 19/36 | S_3.3 |
Q_3.4 | Which type of crops were substantially affected by changes of extreme weather events, particularly in the delta (these result in decreased yields)? | Crop: Rice | 35/36 | S_3.4 |
Q_3.5 | Which type of crops substantially influenced by extreme weather events, particularly along the coast and in the estuary, experience decreased productivity? | Crop: Peanut | 30/36 | S_3.5 |
Appendix 5: Questions on impacts (I) and reply by the respondents in round 1
Code | Questions | Most frequently selected alternative | Number of responses | Symbol of the round 2 statement (S-code) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Q_4.1 | What are main impacts of climate change hazards (storms, floods, and prolonged drought) on agriculture? | Impact on productivity | 32/36 | S_4.1 |
Increased risk of pests and diseases | 29/36 | |||
Q_4.2 | What are main impacts of extreme weather (higher temperature, intensive storms, and prolonged drought) on agriculture? | Changes in agricultural land | 29/36 | S_4.2 |
Increase in pesticides use | 25/36 | |||
Q_4.3 | How do sea level rise affect agriculture? | Harmful | 20/36 | S_4.3 |
Q_4.4 | Does sea level rise has beneficial effects on agriculture? | Local authorities provide support for agriculture | 25/36 | S_4.4 |
Appendix 6: Questions on responses (R) and reply by the respondents in round 1
Code | Questions | Most frequently selected alternative | Number of responses | Symbol of the round 2 statement (S-code) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Q_5.1 | How do local measures help farmers adapt to climate change and reduce the impact of extreme weather? | Construction and upgrading dykes and irrigation systems | 22/36 | S_5.1 |
Providing support to deal with the damage caused by natural hazards | 19/36 | |||
Q_5.2 | What about the assessment of current adaptation measures to cope with climate change? | Inadequate | 25/36 | S_5.2 |
Q_5.3 | How do you assess diversifying economic activities next to agriculture? | Necessary | 27/36 | S_5.3 |
Q_5.4 | How to reduce the negative impacts of greenhouse gasses by saving energy? | At home and in daily life | 30/36 | S_5.4 |
Q_5.5 | What are measures to alleviate the impact of climate change? | Planting trees | 24/36 | S_5.5 |
Improvement of waste management | 15/36 | |||
Q_5.6 | Which type of renewable energy should be developed? | Wind energy | 24/36 | S_5.6 |
Solar energy | 19/36 |
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Nguyen, A.T., Vu, A.D., Dang, G.T.H. et al. How do local communities adapt to climate changes along heavily damaged coasts? A Stakeholder Delphi study in Ky Anh (Central Vietnam). Environ Dev Sustain 20, 749–767 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-017-9908-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-017-9908-x