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Quantifying the response of cotton production in eastern Australia to climate change

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Abstract

The paper evaluates the effect of future climate change (as per the CSIRO Mk3.5 A1FI future climate projection) on cotton yield in Southern Queensland and Northern NSW, eastern Australia by using of the biophysical simulation model APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator). The simulations of cotton production show that changes in the influential meteorological parameters caused by climate change would lead to decreased future cotton yields without the effect of CO2 fertilisation. By 2050 the yields would decrease by 17 %. Including the effects of CO2 fertilisation ameliorates the effect of decreased water availability and yields increase by 5.9 % by 2030, but then decrease by 3.6 % in 2050. Importantly, it was necessary to increase irrigation amounts by almost 50 % to maintain adequate soil moisture levels. The effect of CO2 was found to have an important positive impact of the yield in spite of deleterious climate change. This implies that the physiological response of plants to climate change needs to be thoroughly understood to avoid making erroneous projections of yield and potentially stifling investment or increasing risk.

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Acknowledgments

This study was part of a larger unpublished study by White N, Mushtaq S, Cockfield G, Power B in 2012 “Relocation of intensive agriculture to northern Queensland: the cotton industry”. The climate change data was sourced from the Queensland Government SILO database (http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/silo). The SILO database, previously operated by QCCCE, is now operated by DSITIA.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, Institute of Agriculture and Environment, University of Southern Queensland, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Australia

    Allyson Williams, Shahbaz Mushtaq, Geoff Cockfield & Louis Kouadio

  2. AgriScience -Queensland—Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Toowoomba, Australia

    Neil White & Brendan Power

Authors
  1. Allyson Williams
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  2. Neil White
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  3. Shahbaz Mushtaq
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  4. Geoff Cockfield
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  5. Brendan Power
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  6. Louis Kouadio
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Correspondence to Allyson Williams.

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Williams, A., White, N., Mushtaq, S. et al. Quantifying the response of cotton production in eastern Australia to climate change. Climatic Change 129, 183–196 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1305-y

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