Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Coasts, water levels, and climate change: A Great Lakes perspective

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The North American Laurentian Great Lakes hold nearly 20 % of the earth’s unfrozen fresh surface water and have a length of coastline, and a coastal population, comparable to frequently-studied marine coasts. The surface water elevations of the Great Lakes, in particular, are an ideal metric for understanding impacts of climate change on large hydrologic systems, and for assessing adaption measures for absorbing those impacts. In light of the importance of the Great Lakes to the North American and global economies, the Great Lakes and the surrounding region also serve as an important benchmark for hydroclimate research, and offer an example of successful adaptive management under changing climate conditions. Here, we communicate some of the important lessons to be learned from the Great Lakes by examining how the coastline, water level, and water budget dynamics of the Great Lakes relate to other large coastal systems, along with implications for water resource management strategies and climate scenario-derived projections of future conditions. This improved understanding fills a critical gap in freshwater and marine global coastal research.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Anderson EJ, Schwab DJ, Lang GA (2010) Real-time hydraulic and hydrodynamic model of the St. Clair River, Lake St. Clair, Detroit River system. J Hydraul Eng 136(8):507–518

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Angel J, Kunkel K (2010) The response of Great Lakes water levels to future climate scenarios with an emphasis on Lake Michigan-Huron. J Great Lakes Res 36:51–58

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Assel R, Quinn F, Sellinger C (2004) Hydroclimatic factors of the recent record drop in Laurentian Great Lakes water levels. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 85(8):1143–1151

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Augustine J, Woodley W, Scott R, Changnon S (1994) Using geosynchronous satellite imagery to estimate summer-season rainfall over the Great Lakes. J Great Lakes Res 20(4):683–700

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Austin JA, Colman SM (2007) Lake Superior summer water temperatures are increasing more rapidly than regional air temperatures: a positive ice-albedo feedback. Geophys Res Lett 34(6):L06604

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bruce JP (1984) Great Lakes levels and flows: past and future. J Great Lakes Res 10(2):126–134

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bunch J (1970) Mission of US Lake survey. Journal of the Surveying and Mapping Division 96(2):181–189

    Google Scholar 

  • Buttle J, Muir T, Frain J (2004) Economic impacts of climate change on the Canadian Great Lakes hydro-electric power producers: a supply analysis. Can Water Resour J 29(2):89–110

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Changnon S (1993) Changes in climate and levels of Lake Michigan: shoreline impacts at Chicago. Clim Chang 23(3):213–230

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cohen SJ (1986) Impacts of CO2-induced climatic change on water resources in the Great Lakes basin. Clim Chang 8(2):135–153

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Coordinating Committee on Great Lakes Basic Hydraulic and Hydrologic Data (1978) History of water level gauges. Upper Great Lakes and the St. Clair - Detroit Rivers. Tech. rep., Chicago, IL and Cornwall, Ontario

  • Croley T (1989) Verifiable evaporation modeling on the Laurentian Great Lakes. Water Resour Res 25(5):781–792

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Croley T (1990) Laurentian Great Lakes double-CO2 climate change hydrological impacts. Clim Chang 17(1):27–47

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Croley T (1992) Long-term heat storage in the Great Lakes. Water Resour Res 28(1):69–81

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Croley T (2002) Large basin runoff model, chap 17. In: Singh V, Frevert D, Meyer S (eds) Mathematical models of large watershed hydrology, pp 717–770

  • Croley T (2003) Weighted-climate parametric hydrologic forecasting. J Hydrol Eng 8:171

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Croley T, Assel R (1994) A one-dimensional ice thermodynamics model for the Laurentian Great Lakes. Water Resour Res 30(3):625–639

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Croley T, Hunter T (1994) Great Lakes monthly hydrologic data: Technical Memorandum 083. US Dept. of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory

  • Croley TE, Hartmann HC (1985) Resolving Thiessen polygons. J Hydrol 76(3–4):363–379

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Donner S (2012) Sea level rise and the ongoing Battle of Tarawa. Eos, Trans Am Geophys Union 93(17):169

    Google Scholar 

  • Ekman M (1999) Climate changes detected through the world’s longest sea level series. Global Planet Chang 21(4):215–224

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Field C, Mortsch L, Brklacich M, Forbes D, Kovacs P, Patz J, Running S, Scott M (2007) North America. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, PJ van der Linden, Hanson CE (eds) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK

  • Ghanbari R, Bravo H (2008) Coherence between atmospheric teleconnections, Great Lakes water levels, and regional climate. Adv Water Resour 31(10):1284–1298

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gronewold AD, Fortin V (2012) Advancing Great Lakes hydrological science through targeted binational collaborative research. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93(12):1921–1925

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gronewold AD, Clites A, Hunter T, Stow C (2011) An appraisal of the Great Lakes advanced hydrologic prediction system. J Great Lakes Res 37:577–583

    Google Scholar 

  • Gronewold AD, Stow CA, Crooks JL, Hunter TS (2013) Quantifying parameter uncertainty and assessing the skill of exponential dispersion rainfall simulation models. Int J Climatol 33(3):746–757

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hanrahan J, Kravtsov S, Roebber P (2009) Quasi-periodic decadal cycles in levels of lakes Michigan and Huron. J Great Lakes Res 35(1):30–35

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hartmann HC (1990) Climate change impacts on Laurentian Great Lakes levels. Clim Chang 17(1):49–67

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hayhoe K, VanDorn J, Croley T, Schlegal N, Wuebbles D (2010) Regional climate change projections for Chicago and the US Great Lakes. J Great Lakes Res 36:7–21

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Herdendorf CE (1990) Distribution of the world’s large lakes. Springer-Verlag

  • Hobbs B, Chao P, Venkatesh B (1997) Using decision analysis to include climate change in water resources decision making. Clim Chang 37(1):177–202

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Holgate S, Woodworth P (2004) Evidence for enhanced coastal sea level rise during the 1990s. Geophys Res Lett 31(7):L07, 305

    Google Scholar 

  • Holgate SJ, Matthews A, Woodworth PL, Rickards LJ, Tamisiea ME, Bradshaw E, Foden PR, Gordon KM, Jevrejeva S, Pugh J (2012) New data systems and products at the permanent service for mean sea level. J Coast Res 29(3):493–504

    Google Scholar 

  • Holman K, Gronewold A, Notaro M, Zarrin A (2012) Improving historical precipitation estimates over the Lake Superior basin. Geophys Res Lett 39(3):L03, 405

    Google Scholar 

  • Keillor J (1990) Planning for a wider range of water levels along Great Lakes and ocean coasts. Coast Manag 18(1):91–103

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kerr R (2011) Vital details of global warming are eluding forecasters. Science 334(6053):173–174

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kutzbach JE, Williams JW, Vavrus SJ (2005) Simulated 21st century changes in regional water balance of the Great Lakes region and links to changes in global temperature and poleward moisture transport. Geophys Res Lett 32:L17, 707

    Google Scholar 

  • Lehner B, Döll P (2004) Development and validation of a global database of lakes, reservoirs and wetlands. J Hydrol 296(1):1–22

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lofgren B, Quinn F, Clites A, Assel R, Eberhardt A, Luukkonen C (2002) Evaluation of potential impacts on Great Lakes water resources based on climate scenarios of two GCMs. J Great Lakes Res 28(4):537–554

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lofgren BM, Hunter TS, Wilbarger J (2011) Effects of using air temperature as a proxy for potential evapotranspiration in climate change scenarios of Great Lakes basin hydrology. J Great Lakes Res 37(4):744–752

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lyons R, Kroll C, Scholz C (2010) An energy-balance hydrologic model for the Lake Malawi Rift Basin, East Africa. Glob Planet Chang 75(1–2):83–97

    Google Scholar 

  • Magnuson J, Webster K, Assel R, Bowser C, Dillon P, Eaton J, Evans H, Fee E, Hall R, Mortsch L, et al (1997) Potential effects of climate changes on aquatic systems: Laurentian Great Lakes and Precambrian Shield Region. Hydrol Process 11(8):825–871

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mainville A, Craymer M (2005) Present-day tilting of the Great Lakes region based on water level gauges. Geol Soc Am Bull 117(7–8):1070–1080

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Manabe S, Wetherald R, Milly P, Delworth T, Stouffer R (2004) Century-scale change in water availability: CO2-quadrupling experiment. Clim Chang 64(1):59–76

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mesinger F, DiMego G, Kalnay E, Mitchell K, Shafran P, Ebisuzaki W, Jovic D, Woollen J, Rogers E, Berbery E, et al (2006) North American regional reanalysis. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 87(3):343–360

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Millerd F (2005) The economic impact of climate change on Canadian commercial navigation on the Great Lakes. Can Water Resour J 30(4):269–280

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Millerd F (2011) The potential impacts of climate change on Great Lakes international shipping. Clim Chang 104:629–652

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Milly P, Dunne K (2011) On the hydrologic adjustment of climate-model projections: the potential pitfall of potential evapotranspiration. Earth Interact 15(1):1–14

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Milly P, Dunne K, Vecchia A (2005) Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate. Nature 438(7066):347–350

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mortsch L (1998) Assessing the impact of climate change on the great lakes shoreline wetlands. Clim Chang 40(2):391–416

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mortsch L, Hengeveld H, Lister M, Lofgren B, Quinn F, Slivitzky M, Wenger L (2000) Climate change impacts on the hydrology of the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence system. Can Water Resour J 25(2):153–179

    Google Scholar 

  • Moulton RJ, Cuthbert DR (2000) Cumulative impacts/risk assessment of water removal or loss from the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River system. Can Water Resour J 25(2):181–208

    Google Scholar 

  • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (1975) The coastline of the United States. Tech. Rep. NOAA/PA 71046 (Rev. 1975)

  • Nicholls RJ, Hoozemans FM, Marchand M (1999) Increasing flood risk and wetland losses due to global sea-level rise: regional and global analyses. Global Environ Chang 9:S69–S87

    Google Scholar 

  • Quinn F (1981) Secular changes in annual and seasonal Great Lakes precipitation, 1854–1979, and their implications for Great Lakes water resource studies. Water Resour Res 17(6):1619–1624

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Revenga C, Murray S, Abramovitz J, Hammond A, et al (1998) Watersheds of the world: ecological value and vulnerability. World Resources Institute

  • Schwab DJ, Bedford K (1994) Initial implementation of the Great Lakes forecasting system: a real-time system for predicting lake circulation and thermal structure. Water Pollut Res J Can 29(2–3):203–220

    Google Scholar 

  • Schwartz R, Deadman P, Scott D, Mortsch L (2004) Modeling the impacts of water level changes on a Great Lakes community. J Am Water Resour Assoc 40(3):647–662

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sellinger CE, Stow CA, Lamon EC, Qian SS (2007) Recent water level declines in the Lake Michigan-Huron system. Environ Sci Technol 42(2):367–373

    Google Scholar 

  • Spence C, Blanken P, Hedstrom N, Fortin V, Wilson H (2011) Evaporation from Lake Superior: 2: spatial distribution and variability. J Great Lakes Res 37(4):717–724

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stow CA, Lamon E, Kratz T, Sellinger C (2008) Lake level coherence supports common driver. Eos, Trans Am Geophys Union 89(41):389

    Google Scholar 

  • US Environmental Protection Agency, Government of Canada (1995) The Great Lakes: an environmental atlas and resource book. Great Lakes National Program Office, US Environmental Protection Agency

  • Wang J, Bai X, Leshkevich G, Colton M, Clites A, Lofgren B (2010) Severe ice cover on Great Lakes during winter 2008–2009. EOS 91(5):41–42

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang J, Bai X, Hu H, Clites A, Colton M, Lofgren B (2012) Temporal and spatial variability of Great Lakes ice cover, 1973–2010. J Clim 25:1318–1329. doi:10.1175/2011JCLI4066.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Watkins Jr D, Li H, Cowden J (2007) Adjustment of radar-based precipitation estimates for great lakes hydrologic modeling. J Hydrol Eng 12:298

  • Willard DA, Bernhardt CE (2011) Impacts of past climate and sea level change on Everglades wetlands: placing a century of anthropogenic change into a late-Holocene context. Clim Chang 107(1–2):59–80

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Willis J, Church J (2012) Regional sea-level projection. Science 336(6081):550–551

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilson J (1977) Effect of Lake Ontario on precipitation. Mon Weather Rev 105:207–214

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Woodford A (1991) Charting the inland seas: a history of the US Lake Survey. Wayne State Univ Pr

  • Woodworth P (1999) High waters at Liverpool since 1768: the UK’s longest sea level record. Geophys Res Lett 26(11):1589–1592

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang X, Church JA (2012) Sea level trends, interannual and decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean. Geophys Res Lett 39(21):L21701

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This paper is GLERL contribution number 1635. The authors thank Erika Washburn and Bryan Comer, as well as two anonymous reviewers who, along with the handling editor, provided helpful comments which improved the clarity of the paper. Funding for this research was provided by the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) and the International Upper Great Lakes Study (IUGLS). We also thank Cathy Darnell for providing graphics and editorial support.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. NOAA, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI, USA

    Andrew D. Gronewold, Brent Lofgren, Anne Clites, Craig A. Stow & Frank Quinn

  2. Environmental Numerical Weather Prediction Research Section, Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada, Dorval, Quebec, Canada

    Vincent Fortin

Authors
  1. Andrew D. Gronewold
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Vincent Fortin
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Brent Lofgren
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Anne Clites
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Craig A. Stow
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Frank Quinn
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Andrew D. Gronewold.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Gronewold, A.D., Fortin, V., Lofgren, B. et al. Coasts, water levels, and climate change: A Great Lakes perspective. Climatic Change 120, 697–711 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0840-2

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0840-2

Keywords

Search

Navigation