Abstract
We investigate how weather affects the UK’s electricity network, by examining past data of weather-related faults on the transmission and distribution networks. By formalising the current relationship between weather-related faults and weather, we use climate projections from a regional climate model (RCM) to quantitatively assess how the frequency of these faults may change in the future. This study found that the incidences of both lightning and solar heat faults are projected to increase in the future. There is evidence that the conditions that cause flooding faults may increase in the future, but a reduction cannot be ruled out. Due to the uncertainty associated with future wind projections, there is no clear signal associated with the future frequency of wind and gale faults, however snow, sleet and blizzard faults are projected to decrease due to a reduction in the number of snow days.
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Notes
Following the completion of this work the licence areas owned by Central Networks were subsequently purchased in March 2011 by Western Power Distribution.
UKCP09 is the most recent set of climate change scenarios released by the UK Climate Impacts Programme (see http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk).
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Acknowledgements
This study was commissioned by the ENA on behalf of the distribution and transmission network operators who funded the work. We would like to thank the study’s working group for their input and advice: David Spillett (ENA), Neil Dunn-Birch (CE Electric), Nigel Johnson (Central Networks), Phil McFarlane (Electricity Northwest), Olympia Siolou (National Grid), David Fidler (National Grid), David Brogden (Scottish and Southern Energy), Jamie McWilliam (Scottish Power Energy Networks), Allan Boardman (UK Power Networks) and Phil West (Western Power Distribution).
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McColl, L., Palin, E.J., Thornton, H.E. et al. Assessing the potential impact of climate change on the UK’s electricity network. Climatic Change 115, 821–835 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0469-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0469-6