Skip to main content

Advertisement

Log in

The economics (or lack thereof) of aerosol geoengineering

Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the Earth’s climate and impose substantial risks for current and future generations. What are scientifically sound, economically viable, and ethically defendable strategies to manage these climate risks? Ratified international agreements call for a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Recent proposals, however, call for a different approach: to geoengineer climate by injecting aerosol precursors into the stratosphere. Published economic studies typically neglect the risks of aerosol geoengineering due to (i) the potential for a failure to sustain the aerosol forcing and (ii) the negative impacts associated with the aerosol forcing. Here we use a simple integrated assessment model of climate change to analyze potential economic impacts of aerosol geoengineering strategies over a wide range of uncertain parameters such as climate sensitivity, the economic damages due to climate change, and the economic damages due to aerosol geoengineering forcing. The simplicity of the model provides the advantages of parsimony and transparency, but it also imposes severe caveats on the interpretation of the results. For example, the analysis is based on a globally aggregated model and is hence silent on intragenerational distribution of costs and benefits. In addition, the analysis neglects the effects of learning and has a very simplistic representation of climate change impacts. Our analysis suggests three main conclusions. First, substituting aerosol geoengineering for CO2 abatement can be an economically ineffective strategy. One key to this finding is that a failure to sustain the aerosol forcing can lead to sizeable and abrupt climatic changes. The monetary damages due to such a discontinuous aerosol geoengineering can dominate the cost-benefit analysis because the monetary damages of climate change are expected to increase with the rate of change. Second, the relative contribution of aerosol geoengineering to an economically optimal portfolio hinges critically on, thus far, deeply uncertain estimates of the damages due to aerosol forcing. Even if we assume that aerosol forcing could be deployed continuously, the aerosol geoengineering does not considerably displace CO2 abatement in the simple economic optimal growth model until the damages due to the aerosol forcing are rather low. Third, substituting aerosol geoengineering for greenhouse gas emission abatement can fail an ethical test regarding intergenerational justice. Substituting aerosol geoengineering for greenhouse gas emissions abatements constitutes a conscious risk transfer to future generations, in violation of principles of intergenerational justice which demands that present generations should not create benefits for themselves in exchange for burdens on future generations.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Adams JB, Mann ME, Ammann CM (2003) Proxy evidence for an El Niño-like response to volcanic forcing. Nature 426:274–278

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Alley RB, Marotzke J, Nordhaus W, Overpeck J, Pielke R, Pierrehumbert R, Rhines P, Stocker T, Talley L, Wallace JM (2002) Abrupt climate change: inevitable surprises. National Research Council

  • Alley RB, Marotzke J, Nordhaus WD, Overpeck JT, Peteet DM, Pielke RA, Pierrehumbert RT, Rhines PB, Stocker TF, Talley LD, Wallace JM (2003) Abrupt climate change. Science 299:2005–2010

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Anthoff D, Tol RSJ, Yohe GW (2008) Risk aversion, time preference, and the social cost of carbon. Environ Res Lett 4(2009):024002

    Google Scholar 

  • Archer D, Brovkin V (2008) The millennial atmospheric lifetime of anthropogenic CO2. Clim Change 90:283–297

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barker T, Bashmakov I, Bernstein L, Bogner J, Bosch P, Dave R, Davidson O, Fisher B, Grubb M, Gupta S, Halsnaes K, Heij B, Ribeiro SK, Kobayashi S, Levine M, Martino D, Cerutti OM, Metz B, Meyer L, Nabuurs GJ, Najam A, Nakicenovic N, Rogner HH, Roy J, Sathaye J, Schock R, Shukla P, Sims R, Smith P, Swart R, Tirpak D, Urge-Vorsatz D, Dadi Z (2007) IPCC, 2007. Climate change 2007: mitigation. Contribution of working group III to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, summary for policymakers. IPCC Secretariat, c/o WMO, 7bis, Avenue de la Paix, C.P. N° 2300, 1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland

  • Barrett S (2008) The incredible economics of geoengineering. Environ Resour Econ 39:45–54

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bernoulli D (1738) Exposition of a new theory on the measurement of risk (english translation, 1954). Econometrica 22:23–36

    Google Scholar 

  • Bernstein L, Bosch P, Canziani O, Chen Z, Christ R, Davidson O, Hare W, Huq S, Karoly D, Kattsov V, Kundzewicz Z, Liu J, Lohmann U, Manning M, Matsuno T, Menne B, Metz B, Mirza M, Nicholls N, Nurse L, Pachauri R, Palutikof J, Parry M, Qin D, Ravindranath N, Reisinger A, Ren J, Riahi K, Rosenzweig C, Rusticucci M, Schneider S, Sokona Y, Solomon S, Stott P, Stouffer R, Sugiyama T, Swart R, Tirpak D, Vogel C, Yohe G (eds) (2008) IPCC, 2007: climate change 2007: synthesis report. Contribution of working groups I, II and III to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland

  • Blackstock JJ, Battisti DS, Caldeira K, Eardley DM, Katz JI, Keith DW, Patrinos AAN, Schrag DP, Socolow RH, Koonin SE (2009) Climate engineering responses to climate emergencies. Novim, Santa Barbara

    Google Scholar 

  • Bradford DF (1999) On the uses of benefit-cost reasoning in choosing policy toward global climate change. In Portney PR, Weyant JP (eds) Discounting and intergenerational equity. Resources for the Future, Washington, pp 37–44

    Google Scholar 

  • Broome J (1991) Utility. Econ Philos 7:1–12

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Broome J (1994) Discounting the future. Philos Public Aff 23:128–156

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bunzl M (2008) An ethical assessment of geoengineering. Bull At Sci 64(2):18–18

    Google Scholar 

  • Carlin A (2007) Global climate change control: is there a better strategy than reducing greenhouse gas emissions? Univ PA Law Rev 155:1401–1497

    Google Scholar 

  • COSEPUP (1992) Policy implications of greenhouse warming: mitigation, adaptation, and the science base. National Academy of Science, Committee on Science Engineering and Public Policy (COSEPUP), National Academy Press

  • Crutzen PJ (2006) Albedo enhancement by stratospheric sulfur injections: a contribution to resolve a policy dilemma? Clim Change 77:211–219

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • de Shalit A (1995) Why posterity matters: environmental policies and future generations. Routledge, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Feely RA, Sabine CL, Lee K, Berelson W, Kleypas J, Fabry VJ, Millero FJ (2004) Impact of anthropogenic CO2 on the CaCO3 system in the oceans. Science 305:362–366

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Frame DJ, Booth BBB, Kettleborough JA, Stainforth DA, Gregory JM, CollinsM, AllenMR (2005) Constraining climate forecasts: the role of prior assumptions. Geophys Res Lett 32:L09702. doi:10.1029/2004GL022241

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gardiner SM (2009) A contract on future generations? Axel Gosseries and Lukas H. Meyer Intergenerational justice. Oxford University Press, Oxford

    Google Scholar 

  • Helton JC, Davis FJ (2003) Latin hypercube sampling and the propagation of uncertainty in analyses of complex systems. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 81:23–69

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Irvine PJ, Ridgwell A, Lunt DJ (2010) Assessing the regional disparities in geoengineering impacts. Geophys Res Lett 37. doi:10.1029/2010gl044447

  • Jamieson D (1996) Ethics and intentional climate change. Clim Change 33:323–336

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Joos F, Mueller-Fuerstenberger G, Stephan G (1999) Correcting the carbon cycle representation: how important is it for the economics of climate change? Environ Model Assess 4:133–140

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kahneman D, Sugden R (2005) Experienced utility as a standard of policy evaluation. Environ Resour Econ 32:161–181

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Keith DW (2000) Geoengineering the climate: history and prospect. Annu Rev Energy Environ 25:245–284

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Keller K, Tan K, Morel FMM, Bradford DF (2000) Preserving the ocean circulation: implications for climate policy. Clim Change 47:17–43

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Keller K, Bolker BM, Bradford DF (2004) Uncertain climate thresholds and optimal economic growth. J Environ Econ Manage 48:723–741

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Keller K, Hall M, Kim SR, Bradford DF, Oppenheimer M (2005) Avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Clim Change 73:227–238

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Keller K, Robinson A, Bradford DF, Oppenheimer M (2007) The regrets of procrastination in climate policy. Environ Res Lett 2. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/1082/1082/024004

  • Keller K, McInerney D, Bradford DF (2008a) Carbon dioxide sequestration: when and how much? Clim Change 88:267–291

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Keller K, Schlesinger M, Yohe G (2008b) Managing the risks of climate thresholds: uncertainties and information needs. Clim Change 91:5–10

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Knutti R, Hegerl G (2008) The equilibrium sensitivity of the Earth’s temperature to radiation changes. Nature Geosciences 1:735–743

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kriegler E (2005) Imprecise probability analysis for integrated assessment of climate change. PhD thesis, University of Potsdam, Potsdam

  • Lempert RJ (2002) A new decision sciences for complex systems. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 99:7309–7313

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lempert RJ, Schlesinger ME, Bankes SC, Andronova NG (2000) The impacts of climate variability on near-term policy choices and the value of information. Clim Change 45:129–161

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lempert R, Popper S, Bankes S (2002) Confronting surprise. Soc Sci Comput Rev 20:420–440

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Louis MES, Hess JJ (2008) Climate change impacts on and implications for global health. Am J Prev Med 35:527–538

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ludwig D, Brock WA, Carpenter SR (2005) Uncertainty in discount models and environmental accounting. Ecol Soc 10(2):13. http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol10/iss2/art13/

    Google Scholar 

  • Lunt DJ, Ridgwell A, Valdes PJ, Seale A (2008) Sunshade world: a fully coupled GCM evaluation of the climatic impacts of geoengineering. Geophys Res Lett 35:L12710. doi:10.1029/2008GL033674

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Manne AS, Richels RG (1991) Buying greenhouse insurance. Energy Policy 19:543–552

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Matthews HD, Caldeira K (2007) Transient climate-carbon simulations of planetary geoengineering. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104:9949–9954

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McInerney D, Keller K (2008) Economically optimal risk reduction strategies in the face of uncertain climate thresholds. Clim Change 91:5–10

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Morrow DR, Kopp RE et al (2009) Toward ethical norms and institutions for climate engineering research. Environmental Research Letters 4(4)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Newell RG, Pizer WA (2004) Uncertain discount rates in climate policy analysis. Energy Policy 32:519–529

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nordhaus WD (1992) An optimal transition path for controlling greenhouse gases. Science 258:1315–1319

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nordhaus WD (1994a) Expert opinion on climatic-change. Am Sci 82:45–51

    Google Scholar 

  • Nordhaus WD (1994b) Managing the global commons: the economics of climate change. The MIT Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Nordhaus WD (2001) Global warming economics. Science 294:1283–1284

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nordhaus WD (2007) Alternative measures of output in global economic-environmental models: purchasing power parity or market exchange rates? Energy Econ 29(3):349–372

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nordhaus W (2008) A question of balance. Yale University Press, New Haven

    Google Scholar 

  • Nordhaus WD, Popp D (1997) What is the value of scientific knowledge? An application to global warming using the PRICE model. Energy J 18:1–45

    Google Scholar 

  • Oppenheimer M, O’Neill BC, Webster M (2008) Negative learning. Clim Change 89:155–172

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Page E (2006) Climate change, justice and future generations. Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham

    Google Scholar 

  • Partridge E (1981) Responsibilities to future generations: environmental ethics. Prometheus Books, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Pogge T (2002) World poverty and human rights: cosmopolitan responsibilities and reforms. Polity Press, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Ramsey F (1928) A mathematical theory of saving. Econ J 37:543–559

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rasch PJ, Tilmes S, Turco RP, Robock A, Oman L, Chen CC, Stenchikov GL, Garcia RR (2008) An overview of geoengineering of climate using stratospheric sulphate aerosols. Philos Trans Royal Soc, Math Phys Eng Sci 366:4007–4037

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rawls J (1971) A theory of justice. Oxford University Press, Oxford

    Google Scholar 

  • Rawls J (2001) Justice as fairness. Harvard University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Rey G, Jougla E, Fouillet A, Pavillon G, Bessemoulin P, Frayssinet P, Clavel J, Hemon D (2007) The impact of major heat waves on all-cause and cause-specific mortality in France from 1971 to 2003. Int Arch Occup Environ Health 80:615–626

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ricke KL, Morgan G, Allen MR (2010) Regional climate response to solar-radiation management. Nature Geosci 3:537–541

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Robine JM, Cheung SLK, Le Roy S, Van Oyen H, Griffiths C, Michel JP, Herrmann FR (2008) Death toll exceeded 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003. Comptes Rendus Biologies 331:171–175

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Robock A (2000) Volcanic eruptions and climate. Rev Geophys 38:191–219

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Robock A (2008) 20 reasons why geoengineering may be a bad idea. Bull At Sci 64:14–18

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Robock A, Oman L, Stenchikov G (2008) Regional climate responses to geoengineering with tropical and Arctic SO2 injections. J Geophys Res 113:D16101. doi:10.1029/2008JD010050

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Savage LJ (1954) The foundations of statistics. Wiley, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Schelling TC (1996) The economic diplomacy of geoengineering. Clim Change 33:303–307

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schneider SH (1996) Geoengineering: could or should we do it? Clim Change 33(3):291–302

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schneider S, Broecker W (2007) Geoengineering may be risky but we need to explore it. New Sci 195:44–45

    Google Scholar 

  • Schneider SH, Semenov S, Patwardhan A, Burton I, Magadza CHD, Oppenheimer M, Pittock AB, Rahman A, Smith JB, Suarez A, Yamin F, Corfee-Morlot J, Finkel A, Füssel HM, Keller K, MacMynowski D, Mastrandrea MD, Todorov A, Sukumar R, van Ypersele J-P, Zillman J (2007) Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 779–810

    Google Scholar 

  • Schulz PA, Kasting JF (1997) Optimal reduction in CO2 emissions. Energy Policy 25:491–500

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shepherd J et al (2009) Geoengineering the climate; science, governance and uncertainty. The Royal Society

  • Shue H (2000) Climate, companion to environmental ethics. Blackwell Publishers, Malden

    Google Scholar 

  • Solomon KR (2008) Effects of ozone depletion and UV-B radiation on humans and the environment. Atmos Ocean 46:185–202

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stoll HM, Shimizu N, Archer D, Ziveri P (2007) Coccolithophore productivity response to greenhouse event of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. Earth Planet Sci Lett 258:192–206

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Storn R, Price K (1997) Differential evolution - a simple and efficient heuristic for global optimization over continuous spaces. J Glob Optim 11:341–359

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stott PA, Stone DA, Allen MR (2004) Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003. Nature 432:610–614

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Teller E, Hyde R, Ishikawa M, Nuckolls J, Wood L (2003) Active stabilization of climate: Inexpensive, low risk, near term options for preventing global warming and ice ages via technologically varied solar radiative forcing. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

  • Tilmes S, Muller R, Salawitch R (2008) The sensitivity of polar ozone depletion to proposed geoengineering schemes. Science 320:1201–1204

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tol RSJ (1996) The damage costs of climate change - towards a dynamic representation. Ecol Econ 19:67–90

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tol RSJ (2001) Equitable cost-benefit analysis of climate change policies. Ecol Econ 36:71–85

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tol RSJ (2008a) Climate, development and malaria: an application of FUND. Clim Change 88:21–34

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tol RSJ (2008b) Why worry about climate change? A research agenda. Environ Values 17:437–470

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tol RSJ, Yohe GW (2007) Infinite uncertainty, forgotten feedbacks, and cost-benefit analysis of climate policy. Clim Change 83(4):429–442

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Trenberth KE, Dai A (2007) Effects of Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption on the hydrological cycle as an analog of geoengineering. Geophys Res Lett 34:L15702. doi:10.1029/2007GL030524

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Trigo RM, García-Herrera R, Díaz J, Trigo IF, Valente MA (2005) How exceptional was the early August 2003 heatwave in France? Geophys Res Lett 32:L10701. doi:10.1029/2005GL022410

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • UNFCCC (1992) UN framework convention on climate change. Palais des Nations, Geneva. http://www.unfccc.de/index.html

  • Urban NM, Keller K (2009) Complementary observational constraints on climate sensitivity. Geophys Res Lett 36:L04708. doi:10.1029/2008GL036457

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Urban NM, Keller K (2010) Probabilistic hindcasts and projections of the coupled climate, carbon cycle, and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation system: a Bayesian fusion of century-scale observations with a simple model. Tellus 62A:737–750

    Google Scholar 

  • Vanderheiden SJ (2008) Atmospheric justice: a political theory of climate change. Oxford University Press, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Varian HR (1974) Equity, envy, and efficiency. J Econ Theory 9:63–91

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Victor D, Granger Morgan M, Apt J, Steinbruner J, Ricke K (2009) The geoengineering option a last resort against global warming? Foreign Aff 88(2):64–76

    Google Scholar 

  • Wigley TML (2006) A combined mitigation/geoengineering approach to climate stabilization. Science 314:452–454

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wolf C (2009) Intergenerational justice, human needs, and climate policy. Oxford University Press, Oxford

    Google Scholar 

  • Yohe GW, Andronova NG et al (2004) To hedge or not to hedge against an uncertain future climate. Science 306:416–417

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Klaus Keller.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Goes, M., Tuana, N. & Keller, K. The economics (or lack thereof) of aerosol geoengineering. Climatic Change 109, 719–744 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9961-z

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9961-z

Keywords

Navigation