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How well do integrated assessment models simulate climate change?

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Abstract

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are regularly used to evaluate different policies of future emissions reductions. Since the global costs associated with these policies are immense, it is vital that the uncertainties in IAMs are quantified and understood. We first demonstrate the significant spread in the climate system and carbon cycle components of several contemporary IAMs. We then examine these components in more detail to understand the causes of differences, comparing the results with more complex climate models and earth system models (ESMs), where available. Our results show that in most cases the outcomes of IAMs are within the range of the outcomes of complex models, but differences are large enough to matter for policy advice. There are areas where IAMs would benefit from improvements (e.g. climate sensitivity, inertia in climate response, carbon cycle feedbacks). In some cases, additional climate model experiments are needed to be able to tune some of these improvements. This will require better communication between the IAM and ESM development communities.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO Box 303, 3720 AH, Bilthoven, The Netherlands

    Detlef P. van Vuuren, Elke Stehfest & Andries F. Hof

  2. MetOffice Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK

    Jason Lowe & Laila Gohar

  3. Department of Meteorology, The University of Reading, Earley Gate, Reading, RG6 6BB, UK

    Jason Lowe & Laila Gohar

  4. Judge Business School, Cambridge University, Trumpington Street, Cambridge, CB2 1AG, UK

    Chris Hope

  5. Tyndall Centre, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK

    Rachel Warren

  6. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Analysis, Telegrafenberg A31, PO Box 60 12 03, 14412, Potsdam, Germany

    Malte Meinshausen

  7. Environmental Physics, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, ETH Zürich, Universitätstrasse 16, 8092, Zürich, Switzerland

    Gian-Kasper Plattner

  8. Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Siedlerstrasse 5, 3012, Bern, Switzerland

    Gian-Kasper Plattner

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  1. Detlef P. van Vuuren
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  2. Jason Lowe
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  5. Andries F. Hof
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  7. Rachel Warren
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  8. Malte Meinshausen
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  9. Gian-Kasper Plattner
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Correspondence to Detlef P. van Vuuren.

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van Vuuren, D.P., Lowe, J., Stehfest, E. et al. How well do integrated assessment models simulate climate change?. Climatic Change 104, 255–285 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9764-2

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