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An integrated model for the assessment of the greenhouse effect: The Dutch approach

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Abstract

This paper describes a simulation policy model of the combined greenhouse effects of trace gases. With this model, the Integrated Model for the Assessment of the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE) scenarios for the future impact of the greenhouse effect can be made, based on different assumptions for technological and socio-economic developments. The contribution of each trace gas can be estimated separately.

Basically the model, consisting of a number of coupled modules, gives policy makers a concise overview of the problem and enables them to evaluate the impact of different strategies. Because the model covers the complete cause-effect relationship it can be utilized to derive allowable emission rates for the different trace gases from set effect related targets. Regular demonstration sessions with the simulation model have proven the importance of such science based integrated models for policy development.

Four different scenarios are worked out for the most important trace gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, CFC-11 and CFC-12). One of these scenarios can be regarded as a growth scenario unrestricted by environmental concerns. The others are based on different strategic policies. After the simulation of future trace gas concentrations global equilibrium temperature increases are computed. Finally the sea level rise, the most threatening effect of the greenhouse problem for the Netherlands, is estimated.

Simulation results so far emphasize the importance of trace gases other than CO2. The Montreal Protocol on reduction of CFC is found to stabilize the relative contribution of these substances to the greenhouse effect.

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  1. National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection (Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieuhygiëne), 3720 BA, P.O. Box 1, Bilthoven, The Netherlands

    Jan Rotmans, Hans De Boois & Robert J. Swart

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  1. Jan Rotmans
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  2. Hans De Boois
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Rotmans, J., De Boois, H. & Swart, R.J. An integrated model for the assessment of the greenhouse effect: The Dutch approach. Climatic Change 16, 331–356 (1990). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00144508

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