Abstract
A simulation study was carried out to assess the potential sensitivity of wheat growth and water balance components to likely climate change scenarios at Wagga Wagga, NSW, Australia. Specific processes considered include crop development, growth rate, grain yield, water use efficiency, evapotranspiration, runoff and deep drainage. Individual impacts of changes in temperature, rainfall and CO2 concentration ([CO2]) and the combined impacts of these three variables were analysed for 2050 ([CO2] = 570 ppm, T +2.3°C, P −7%) and 2070 ([CO2] = 720 ppm, T +3.8°C, P −10%) conditions. Two different rainfall change scenarios (changes in rainfall intensity or rainfall frequency) were used to modify historical rainfall data. The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) was used to simulate the growth and water balance processes for a 117 year period of baseline, 2050 and 2070 climatic conditions. The results showed that wheat yield reduction caused by 1°C increase in temperature and 10% decrease in rainfall could be compensated by a 266 ppm increase in [CO2] assuming no interactions between the individual effects. Temperature increase had little impact on long-term average water balance, while [CO2] increase reduced evapotranspiration and increased deep drainage. Length of the growing season of wheat decreased 22 days in 2050 and 35 days in 2070 conditions as a consequence of 2.3°C and 3.8°C increase in temperature respectively. Yield in 2050 was approximately 1% higher than the simulated baseline yield of 4,462 kg ha − 1, but it was 6% lower in 2070. An early maturing cultivar (Hartog) was more sensitive in terms of yield response to temperature increase, while a mid-maturing cultivar (Janz) was more sensitive to rainfall reduction. Janz could benefit more from increase in CO2 concentration. Rainfall reduction across all rainfall events would have a greater negative impact on wheat yield and WUE than if only smaller rainfall events reduced in magnitude, even given the same total decrease in annual rainfall. The greater the reduction in rainfall, the larger was the difference. The increase in temperature increased the difference of impact between the two rainfall change scenarios while increase in [CO2] reduced the difference.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Amthor JS (2001) Effects of atmospheric CO2 concentration on wheat yield: review of results from experiments using various approaches to control CO2 concentration. Field Crops Res 73:1–34
Asseng S, Fillery IRP, Anderson GC et al (1998) Use of the Apsim wheat model to predict yield, drainage, and NO_3 leaching for a deep sand. Aust J Agric Res 49:363–377
Asseng S, Van Keulen H, Stol W (2000) Performance and application of the APSIM N wheat model in the Netherlands. Eur J Agron 12:37–54
Asseng S, Jamieson PD, Kimball B (2004) Simulated wheat growth affected by rising temperature, increased water deficit and elevated atmospheric CO2. Field Crops Res 85:85–102
Beare S, Heaney A (2002) Climate change and water resources in the murray darling basin, Australia. In: Conference paper 02.11, Australia Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Canberra
Chen X (2001) The red clay mantle in the Wagga Wagga region, Now South Wales: evaluation of an Aeolian dust deposit (Yarabee Parna) using methods of soil landscape mapping. Aust J Soil Res 39:61–80
Dolling PJ, Fillery IRP, Ward PR et al (2006) Consequences of rainfall during summer–autumn fallow on available soil water and subsequent drainage in annual-based cropping systems. Aust J Agric Res 57:281–296
French RJ, Schultz JE (1984) Water use efficiency of wheat in Mediterranean-type environment. I. The relation between yield, water use and climate. Aust J Agric Res 35:743–764
Hatton TJ, Nulsen RA (1999) Towards achieving functional ecosystem mimicry with respect to water cycling in Southern Australia agriculture. Agrofor Syst 45:202–214
Heng LK, Asseng S, Mejahed K et al (2007) Optimizing wheat productivity in two rain-fed environments of the West Asia–North Africa region using a simulation model. Eur J Agron 26:121–129
Houghton JT, Callander BA, Varney SK (eds) (1992) Climate change 1992: the supplementary report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 200 pp
Howden M, Jones RN (2004) Risk assessment of climate change impacts on Australia’s wheat industry. In: New directions for a diverse planet: proceedings of the 4th international crop science congress, Brisbane, Australia, 26 Sep–1 Oct 2004
Howden SM, Reyenga PJ, Meinke H (1999a) Global change impacts on Australian wheat cropping: studies on hydrology, fertiliser management and mixed crop rotations. Report to the Australian Greenhouse Office, CSIRO Wildlife and Ecology Working Paper 99/13, Canberra, p 24
Howden SM, Reyenga PJ, Meinke H et al (1999b) Integrated global change impact assessment on Australian terrestrial ecosystems. Report to the Australian Greenhouse Office, CSIRO Wildlife and Ecology Working Paper 99/14, Canberra, p 51
Howden SM, Reyenga PJ, Meinke H (1999c) Global change impacts on Australian wheat cropping. Report to the Australian Greenhouse Office. CSIRO, Sustainable Ecosystem, Canberra, 122 pp. http://www.cse.csiro.au/publications/1999/australianwheat-99-4.pdf
Howden SM, Mckeon GM, Meinke H et al (2001) Impacts of climate and climate variability on the competitiveness of wheat and beef cattle production in Emerald, north-east Australia. Environ Int 27:155–160
Howden SM, Soussana JF, Tubillo FN (2007) Adapting agriculture to climate change. PNAS 104:19691–19696
Idso KE, Idso SB (1994) Plant responses to atmospheric CO2 enrichment in the face of environmental constraints: a review of the past 10 years research. Agric For Meteorol 69:154–203
IPCC (2000) Special report: emissions scenarios. Summary for policymakers. IPCC, Geneva, http://www.ipcc.ch/
Keating BA, Meinke H, Probert ME et al (2001) NWheat: documentation and performance of a wheat module for APSIM. CSIRO. Tropical Agriculture Technical Memorandum. Indooroopilly, Queensland, CSIRO Tropical Agriculture
Keating BA, Carberry PS, Hammer GL et al (2003) An overview of APSIM, a model designed for farming systems simulation. Eur J Agron 18:267–288
Kimball BA, Kobayashi K, Bindi M (2002) Responses of agricultural crops to free-air CO2 enrichment. Adv Agron 77:293–368
Lilley JM, Kirkegaard JA, Robertson MJ et al (2003) Simulating crop and soil processes in crop sequences in southern NSW. In: Proceedings of the 11th Australian agronomy conference, Geelong. Australian Society of Agronomy. www.regional.org.au/au/asa/2003/c/12/lilley.htm
Lilley JM, Probert MJ, Kirkegaard J (2004) Simulation of deep drainage under a 13-year crop sequence in southern NSW. In: Proceedings of the 4th international crop science congress, Brisbane, 26 Sept–1 Oct 2004. http://www.cropscience.org.au/icsc2004/
Ludwig F, Asseng S (2006) Climate change impacts on wheat production in a Mediterranean environmental in Western Australian. Agric Syst 90:159–179
Luo Q, Williams MAJ, Bellotti W et al (2003) Quantitative and visual assessment of climate change impacts on South Australian wheat production. Agric Syst 77:173–186
Luo Q, Jones NR, Williams MAJ et al (2005a) Probabilistic distributions of regional climate change and their application in risk analysis of wheat production. Clim Res 29:41–52
Luo Q, Williams MAJ, Bellotti W et al (2005b) Potential impact of climate change on wheat yield in South Australia. Agric For Meteorol 132:273–285
Luo Q, Bellotti W, Williams MAJ et al (2007) Risk analysis of possible impacts of climate change on South Australian wheat production. Clim Change 85:89–101
Meinke H, Hammer GL, Van Keulen H et al (1998) Improving wheat simulation capabilities in Australia from a cropping systems perspective III. The integrated wheat model (I-WHEAT). Eur J Agron 8:101–116
Nonhebel S (1996) Effects of temperature rise and increase in CO2 concentration on simulated wheat yield in Europe. Clim Change 34:73–90
Probert ME, Carberry PS, McCown RL et al (1998) Simulation of legume–cereal systems using APSIM. Aust J Agric Res 49:317–327
Reyenga PJ, Howden SM, Meinke H et al (1999) Modelling global change impacts on wheat cropping in southeast Queensland, Australia. Environ Model Softw 14:297–306
Reyenga PJ, Howden SM, Meinke H et al (2001) Global change impacts on wheat production along an environmental gradient in South Australia. Environ Int 27:195–200
Timmermann A, Obehuber J, Bacher A et al (1999) Increased El Nino frequency in a climate model forced by future greenhouse warming. Nature 398:694–697
van Herwaarden AF, Farquhar GD, Angus JF et al (1998) ‘Haying-off’, the negative grain yield response of dryland wheat to nitrogen fertiliser. I. Biomass, grain yield, and water use. Aust J Agric Res 49:1067–1081
van Ittersum MK, Howden SM, Asseng S (2003) Sensitivity of productivity and deep drainage of wheat cropping systems in a Mediterranean environment to changes in CO2, temperature and precipitation. Agric Ecosys Env 97:255–273
Verburg K, Bond WJ (2003) Use of APSIM to simulate water balances of dryland farming systems in south eastern Australia, Technical report 50/03, November 2003, CSIRO Land and Water and APSRU. http://www.clw.csiro.au/publications/technical2003/tr50-03.pdf
Wang E, Wang J (2007) Modelling the performance of different wheat varieties under changed climate-towards better adaptation. In: 4th International symposium on intelligent information technology in agriculture, Beijing, China, 26–29 Oct 2007
Wang YP, Handoko Jr, Rimmington GM (1992) Sensitivity of wheat growth to increases air temperature for different scenarios of ambient CO2 concentration and rainfall in Victoria, Australia—a simulation study. Clim Res 2:131–149
Wang E, van Oosterom E, Meinke H et al (2003) The new APSIM-Wheat Model—performance and future improvements. In: Solutions for a better environment. Proceedings of the 11th Australian Agronomy Conference, 2–6 Feb 2003, Geelong, Victoria. Australian Society of Agronomy
Wang J, Yu Q, Li J et al (2006) Simulation of diurnal variations of CO2, water and heat fluxes over winter wheat with a model coupled photosynthesis and transpiration. Agric For Meteorol 137:194–219
Wilson SG, Hunt BG (1997) Impact of greenhouse warming on El Niño/southern oscillation behaviour in a high resolution coupled global climatic model. A research project commissioned by the Department of Environment, Sport and Territories, Australia. CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research
Yu Q, Wang E, Smith CJ (2007) A modelling investigation into the economic and environmental values of ‘perfect’ climate forecasts for wheat production under contrasting rainfall conditions. Int J Climatol 28:255–266
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Wang, J., Wang, E., Luo, Q. et al. Modelling the sensitivity of wheat growth and water balance to climate change in Southeast Australia. Climatic Change 96, 79–96 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9599-x
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9599-x