Biodiversity and Conservation

, Volume 19, Issue 3, pp 695–723

Assessing the vulnerability of European butterflies to climate change using multiple criteria


    • Research Programme for Biodiversity, Research DepartmentFinnish Environment Institute
  • Miska Luoto
    • Department of GeographyUniversity of Oulu
  • Niko Leikola
    • Nature Division, Expert Services DepartmentFinnish Environment Institute
  • Juha Pöyry
    • Research Programme for Biodiversity, Research DepartmentFinnish Environment Institute
  • Josef Settele
    • Department of Community EcologyUFZ, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research
  • Otakar Kudrna
    • Naturmuseum Südtirol
  • Mathieu Marmion
    • Department of GeographyUniversity of Oulu
  • Stefan Fronzek
    • Research Programme for Global Change, Research Department, Finnish Environment Institute
  • Wilfried Thuiller
    • Laboratoire d’Ecologie AlpineUMR CNRS 5553, Université Joseph Fourier
Original Paper

DOI: 10.1007/s10531-009-9728-x

Cite this article as:
Heikkinen, R.K., Luoto, M., Leikola, N. et al. Biodivers Conserv (2010) 19: 695. doi:10.1007/s10531-009-9728-x


Vulnerability of 100 European butterfly species to climate change was assessed using 13 different criteria and data on species distributions, climate, land cover and topography from 1,608 grid squares 30′ × 60′ in size, and species characteristics increasing the susceptibility to climate change. Four bioclimatic model-based criteria were developed for each species by comparing the present-day distribution and climatic suitability of the occupied grid cells with projected distribution and suitability in the future using the HadCM3-A2 climate scenario for 2051–2080. The proportions of disadvantageous land cover types (bare areas, water, snow and ice, artificial surfaces) and cultivated and managed land in the occupied grid squares and their surroundings were measured to indicate the amount of unfavourable land cover and dispersal barriers for butterflies, and topographical heterogeneity to indicate the availability of potential climatic refugia. Vulnerability was also assessed based on species dispersal ability, geographical localization and habitat specialization. Northern European species appeared to be amongst the most vulnerable European butterflies. However, there is much species-to-species variation, and species appear to be threatened due to different combinations of critical characteristics. Inclusion of additional criteria, such as life-history species characteristics, topography and land cover to complement the bioclimatic model-based species vulnerability measures can significantly deepen the assessments of species susceptibility to climate change.


Bioclimatic modelClimate changeLand coverLepidopteraRange shiftSpecies characteristicsSusceptibilityTopographical heterogeneity

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009