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BSHAP seismic source characterization models for the Western Balkan region

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Abstract

This manuscript presents the seismic source characterization models that were developed and used for the Western Balkan region in the framework of Harmonization of Seismic Hazard Maps in the Western Balkan Countries Project (BSHAP II) funded by NATO-Science for Peace and Security Program. Relevant knowledge about the geological and seismotectonic structure of Western Balkans and surrounding region was collected and utilized along with the BSHAP focal mechanism database and the BSHAP earthquake catalogue (Markušić et al. in Bull Earthq Eng 14(2):321–343, 2016. doi:10.1007/s10518-015-9833-z) to delineate seismic source models for different purposes. The super zone model of large zones bounds the regions with similar seismotectonic characteristics and catalogue completeness levels and was used for calculating the regional b-value of the magnitude recurrence relationship. Additionally, two models of smaller zones that represent the epistemic uncertainty in source geometry, maximum magnitude and style-of-faulting, were developed to be employed in the two-stage (circular and elliptical) smoothing procedure. Sets of sensitivity analyses are performed to support final estimates of some models’ parameters affecting the smoothed seismicity rate. The seismic source models and the logic-tree presented here are to be implemented in the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the seismic hazard maps of the Western Balkan region.

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Notes

  1. Bosnia and Hercegovina did not take part in BSHAP II partnership.

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Acknowledgements

This work is funded by NATO SfP Program under: “Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries” project” (NATO SfP Award Number: 984374). BSHAP participants are indebted to the institutions/data providers for positive cooperative attitude in data releasing and continuous support. We, the BSHAP projects teams and authors of this paper, do expect that NATO, Public Diplomacy Divisions’ expectations and policies are met, in terms of technical and synergic achievements, and that BSHAP’s results justify granting that we highly acknowledge. We would like to extend our sincere gratitude to Prof. M. Herak who kindly provided his FPS calculation software. The MathLab computer code used for Kijko and Sellevoll (1992) tests was the courtesy of Prof. Kijko, provided for research purposes only.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Hydrometeorology and Seismology, Podgorica, Montenegro

    Jadranka Mihaljević & Nataša Kaluđerović

  2. Slovenian Environment Agency, Ljubljana, Slovenia

    Polona Zupančič & Mladen Živčić

  3. Institute of Geosciences, Energy, Water and Environment, Polytechnic University, Tirana, Albania

    Neki Kuka, Rexhep Koçi, Edmond Dushi, Enkela Begu & Llambro Duni

  4. Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia

    Snježana Markušić, Ines Ivančić & Tomislav Fiket

  5. Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Seismology (IZIIS), Ss. Cyril and Methodius University, Skopje, Macedonia

    Radmila Šalić & Zoran Milutinović

  6. Seismological Survey of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia

    Svetlana Kovačević & Vladan Kovačević

  7. Civil Engineering Department, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey

    Marjan Vakilinezhad & Zeynep Gülerce

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  1. Jadranka Mihaljević
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  2. Polona Zupančič
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  3. Neki Kuka
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Correspondence to Jadranka Mihaljević.

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Mihaljević, J., Zupančič, P., Kuka, N. et al. BSHAP seismic source characterization models for the Western Balkan region. Bull Earthquake Eng 15, 3963–3985 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-017-0143-5

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