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Assessment of shallow landslide risk mitigation measures based on land use planning through probabilistic modelling

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Abstract

On October 25, 2011, an extreme rainfall event affected a wide area along the coasts of Cinque Terre (eastern Liguria, northern Italy). Particularly, in the Vernazza catchment, the event triggered hundreds of shallow landslides and a debris flood that caused three casualties. Investigation of the slope stability after the event was carried out aiming at defining the most effective mitigation measures which may be adopted in future land use planning. To this objective, a susceptibility model was produced and a series of scenarios were simulated using probabilistic methods. The susceptibility model has provided information about landslide conditioning factors on which to act for reducing landslide occurrence and therefore the associated risk. The simulations have taken into consideration the following alternative types of mitigation measures: (1) restoration of abandoned terraces, (2) reforestation of abandoned terraces, (3) use of local structural measures over stretches of potentially unstable hillsides and (4) avoidance of any intervention. The advantages and the disadvantages of the proposed mitigation measures for shallow landslide risk are discussed considering the results of the simulations and taking into account their complex interaction with environmental, historical, cultural and socio-economic aspects. The results show that the most effective mitigation strategy for reducing landslide risk at short term consists of applying structural measures over potentially unstable slopes. However, a long-term programme promoting the development of agricultural or forestry practices on terraced slopes is necessary. In fact, the simulations indicate that if no measures are applied to avoid the degradation of the terraced areas, landslide areal frequency would inevitably increase.

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Acknowledgments

J.P. Galve would like to thank the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness for his postdoctoral fellowship. The paper is also part of the PRIN 2010-11 MIUR Project on the “Dynamics of morphoclimatic systems as a response of global changes and induced geomorphological risks” (co-ordinator: C. Baroni; research unit responsible: M. Soldati). The authors are grateful to three anonymous reviewers for constructive comments.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Departamento de Ciencias de la Tierra, Universidad de Zaragoza, C/Pedro Cerbuna 12, 50009, Zaragoza, Spain

    Jorge Pedro Galve

  2. Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, dell’Ambiente e della Vita, Università di Genova, Corso Europa 26, 16132, Genoa, Italy

    Andrea Cevasco & Pierluigi Brandolini

  3. Dipartimento di Scienze Chimiche e Geologiche, Università di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Largo S. Eufemia 19, 41121, Modena, Italy

    Mauro Soldati

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  1. Jorge Pedro Galve
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  2. Andrea Cevasco
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Correspondence to Jorge Pedro Galve.

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Galve, J.P., Cevasco, A., Brandolini, P. et al. Assessment of shallow landslide risk mitigation measures based on land use planning through probabilistic modelling. Landslides 12, 101–114 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-014-0478-9

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