Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Managing Alaska’s National Parks in an era of uncertainty: an evaluation of scenario planning workshops

  • Original Article
  • Published:
Regional Environmental Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Scenario planning is a flexible tool used to assess a broad range of plausible, relevant, divergent, and challenging futures, for short-term responses and long-term planning. Scenario planning has gained popularity in natural resource management for addressing uncertainties associated with climate change, but the literature contains few retrospective assessments of scenario planning. In this paper, we use a case study of a climate change scenario planning process conducted by National Park Service in Alaska to evaluate this tool and its outcomes. Five planning workshops, each addressing an Inventory and Monitoring Network in Alaska, were held between 2010 and 2012. In 2015, we conducted 30 interviews with workshop participants to evaluate the outcomes of these workshops. Participants described individual outcomes, including increased knowledge of climate change, increased awareness of uncertainty, and the ability to learn from others across disciplines and backgrounds. Challenges include ensuring adequate feedback and follow-through after the initial process, making products tangible and meaningful to participants, and providing specific mechanisms for applying the process beyond the workshop. The evaluation showed that the workshops were well organized and facilitated, and that they fostered individual learning and helped participants develop adaptive capacity. Suggestions for improvement included institutionalizing the process so that it can have more impact at the organizational level, and recognizing and preparing for the challenges of co-production of knowledge.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Alkin MC (2011) Evaluation essentials from A to Z. Guildford Press, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Allen CR, Fontaine JJ, Pope KL, Garmestani AS (2011) Adaptive management for a turbulent future. J Environ Manage 92:1339–1345. doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2010.11.019

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Amer M, Daim TU, Jetter A (2013) A review of scenario planning. Futures 46:23–40. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2012.10.003

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Archie KM, Dilling L, Milford JB, Pampel FC (2012) Climate change and western public lands: a survey of U.S. federal land managers on the status of adaptation efforts. Ecol Soc 17(4):20. doi:10.5751/ES-05187-170420

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Baron JS, Gunderson L, Allen CD, Fleishman E, McKenzie D, Meyerson LA, Oropeza J, Stephenson N (2009) Options for national parks and reserves for adapting to climate change. Environ Manage 44(6):1033–1042. doi:10.1007/s00267-009-9296-6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bennett EM, Carpenter SR, Peterson GD, Cumming GS, Zurek M, Pingali P (2003) Why global scenarios need ecology. Front Ecol Environ 1(6):322–329. doi:10.2307/3868093

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bentham J (2014) The scenario approach to possible futures for oil and natural gas. Energ Policy 64:87–92. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2013.08.019

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Berkes F (2008) Sacred ecology. Routledge, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Bryman A (2012) Social research methods. Oxford University Press, Oxford

    Google Scholar 

  • Carlsen H, Dreborg KH, Wikman-Svahn P (2013) Tailor-made scenario planning for local adaptation to climate change. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 18(8):1239–1255. doi:10.1007/s11027-012-9419-x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cash DW, Clark WC, Alcock F, Dickson NM, Eckley N, Guston DH, Jäger J, Mitchell RB (2003) Knowledge systems for sustainable development. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 100:8086–8091. doi:10.1073/pnas.1231332100

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Caves JK, Bodner GS, Simms K, Fisher LA, Robertson T (2013) Integrating collaboration, adaptive management, and scenario-planning: experiences at Las Cienegas National Conservation Area. Ecol Soc 18(3):43. doi:10.5751/ES-05749-180343

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • CEQ (Council on Environmental Quality) (2011) Federal agency climate change planning: Implementing instructions. Instructions for implementing climate change adaptation planning in accordance with Executive Order 13514. CEQ, Washington, DC, USA

  • Chapin FS, Kofinas G, Folke C (eds) (2009) Principles of ecosystem stewardship. Springer, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Chermack TJ (2004) Improving decision-making with scenario planning. Futures 36(3):295–309. doi:10.1016/S0016-3287(03)00156-3

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cobb AN, Thompson JL (2012) Climate change scenario planning: a model for the integration of science and management in environmental decision-making. Environ Model Softw 38:296–305. doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.06.012

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cole DN, Yung L (2010) Beyond naturalness: rethinking park and wilderness stewardship in an era of rapid change. Island Press, Washington

    Google Scholar 

  • Denzin NK, Lincoln YS (2005) SAGE handbook of qualitative research. Sage Publications, Thousand Oaks

    Google Scholar 

  • (EEA) European Environmental Agency (2009) Looking back on looking forward: a review of evaluative scenario literature. Copenhagen, Denmark

  • Ernst KM, van Riemsdijk M (2013) Climate change scenario planning in Alaska’s National Parks: stakeholder involvement in the decision-making process. Appl Geogr 45:22–28. doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2013.08.004

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fazey I, Fazey JA, Fazey DMA (2005) Learning more effectively from experience. Ecol Soc 10(2):4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guest G, Bunce A, Johnson L (2008) How many interviews are enough?: an experiment with data saturation and variability. Field Method 18:59–82. doi:10.1177/1525822X05279903

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hauser KM (2012) Public land in a changing climate: planning for an uncertain future. Master’s Thesis, University of Tennessee

  • Hegger D, Lamers M, van Zeijl-Rozema A, Dieperink C (2012) Conceptualising joint knowledge production in regional climate change adaptation projects: success conditions and levers for action. Environ Sci Policy 18:52–65. doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2012.01.002

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hobbs R, Cole DN, Yung L, Zavaleta S, Aplet GH, Chapin FS, Landres PB, Parsons DJ, Stephenson NL, White PS, Graber DM, Higgs ES, Millar CI, Randall JM, Tonnessen KA, Woodley S (2010) Guiding concepts for park and wilderness stewardship in an era of global environmental change. Front Ecol Environ 8:483–490. doi:10.1890/090089

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kahn H, Weiner AJ (1967) The year 2000: a framework for speculation on the next thirty years. MacMillan, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Knapp CN, Trainor SF (2013) Adapting science to a warming world. Glob Environ Change 23(5):1296–1306. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.07.007

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Miller TR, Baird TD, Littlefiled CM, Kofinas G, Chapin FS, Redman CL (2008) Epistemological pluralism: reorganizing interdisciplinary research. Ecol Soc 13(2):46

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moore S, Seavy NE, Gerhart M (2013) Scenario planning for climate change adaptation: a guidance for resource managers. Point Blue Conservation Science and California Coastal Conservancy, Petaluma

    Google Scholar 

  • Moser SC, Ekstrom JA (2010) A framework to diagnose barriers to climate change adaptation. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107(51):22026–22031. doi:10.1073/pnas.1007887107

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Nakicenovic N, Swart R (eds) (2000) Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) special report on emission scenarios (SRES). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • National Park Service (2010) National Park Service climate change response strategy. National Park Service Climate Change Response Program, Fort Collins

    Google Scholar 

  • National Park Service (2012) Climate action plan: 2012–2014. National Park Service Climate Change Response Program Office. Department of the Interior, Washington, DC

  • National Park Service (2013) Using scenarios to explore climate change: a handbook for practitioners. National Park Service Climate Change Response Program, Fort Collins

    Google Scholar 

  • Newman J (2011) Boundary troubles: working the academic–policy interface. Policy Polit 39(4):473–484. doi:10.1332/030557310X550150

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pelling M, High C, Dearing J, Smith D (2008) Shadow spaces for social learning: a relational understanding of adaptive capacity to climate change within organisations. Environ Plan 40(4):867–884. doi:10.1068/a39148

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peterson GD, Cumming GS, Carpenter SR (2003) Scenario planning: a tool for conservation in an uncertain world. Conserv Biol 17(2):358–366. doi:10.1046/j.1523-1739.2003.01491.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Phelps R, Chan C, Kapsalis SC (2001) Does scenario planning affect performance? Two exploratory studies. J Bus Res 51(3):223–232. doi:10.1016/S0148-2963(99)00048-X

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rickards L, Wiseman J, Edwards T, Biggs C (2014) The problem of fit: scenario planning and climate change adaptation in the public sector. Environ Plan C Gov Policy 32:641–662

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rowland EL, Cross MS, Hartmann H (2014) Considering multiple futures: scenario planning to address uncertainty in natural resource conservation. US Fish and Wildlife Service, Washington

    Google Scholar 

  • Schwartz P (1996) The art of the long view: planning for the future in an uncertain world. Doubleday, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Voinov A, Bousquet F (2010) Modeling with stakeholders. Environ Model Softw 25(11):1268–1281. doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.03.007

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Winfree R, Rice B, Fresco N, Krutikov L, Morris J, Callaway D, Weeks D, Mow J, Swanton N (2014a) Climate change scenario planning for southwest Alaska parks: Aniakchak National Monument and Preserve, Kenai Fjords National Park, Lake Clark National Park and Preserve, Katmai National Park and Preserve, and Alagnak Wild River. Natural Resource Report NPS/AKSO/NRR2014/832. National Park Service, Fort Collins, Colorado

  • Winfree R, Rice B, Fresco N, Krutikov L, Morris J, Callaway D, Mow J, and Swanton N (2014b) Climate change scenario planning for northwest Alaska parks: Cape Krusenstern and Bering Land Bridge. Natural Resource Report NPS/AKSO/NRR—2014/830. National Park Service, Fort Collins, Colorado

  • Winfree R, Rice B, Fresco N, Krutikov L, Morris J, Callaway D, Weeks D, Mow J (2014c) Climate change scenario planning for southeast Alaska parks: Glacier Bay, Klondike, Sitka, and Wrangell-St. Elias. Natural Resource Report NPS/AKSO/NRR—2014/831. National Park Service, Fort Collins, Colorado

  • Winfree R, Rice B, Fresco N, Krutikov L, Morris J, Callaway D, Mow J, Swanton N (2014d) Climate change scenario planning for interior arctic Alaska parks: Noatak – Gates of the Arctic – Kobuk Valley. Natural Resource Report NPS/AKSO/NRR—2014/833. National Park Service, Fort Collins, Colorado

  • Winfree R, Rice B, Fresco N, Krutikov L, Morris J, Callaway D, Mow J, Swanton N (2014e) Climate change scenario planning for central Alaska parks: Yukon-Charley, Wrangell-St. Elias, and Denali. Natural Resource Report NPS/AKSO/NRR—2014/829. National Park Service, Fort Collins, Colorado

  • Wollenberg E, Edmunds D, Buck L (2000) Using scenarios to make decisions about the future: anticipatory learning for the adaptive co-management of community forests. Landsc Urban Plan 47(1–2):65–77. doi:10.1016/S0169-2046(99)00071-7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wright G, Bradfield R, Cairns G (2013) Does the intuitive logics method—and its recent enhancements—produce ‘effective’ scenarios?”. Technol Forecast Soc 80(4):631–642. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2012.09.003

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We would like to thank NPS and the NPS Alaska Regional Office for leading and funding the scenario planning process. We would also like to offer special thanks to both participants who made the time to be interviewed and all of those who contributed to the process.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Environment and Sustainability, Western State Colorado University, 600 N Adams St, Gunnison, CO, 81231, USA

    Corrine Noel Knapp

  2. Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA

    Nancy Fresco & Lena Krutikov

Authors
  1. Corrine Noel Knapp
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Nancy Fresco
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Lena Krutikov
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Corrine Noel Knapp.

Ethics declarations

Ethical approval

This research involved human participants and we used a process of informed consent. We received approval to conduct this research through the Institutional Review Board (IRB) at Western State Colorado University (HRC2015-02-100R7).

Additional information

Editor: James Ford.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Knapp, C.N., Fresco, N. & Krutikov, L. Managing Alaska’s National Parks in an era of uncertainty: an evaluation of scenario planning workshops. Reg Environ Change 17, 1541–1552 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1126-4

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1126-4

Keywords

Search

Navigation