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Tailor-made scenario planning for local adaptation to climate change

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Abstract

This paper presents a tailor-made scenario approach for climate change adaptation planning, which emphasises involvement of stakeholders in the development of socioeconomic scenarios and relates to the planning situation and interest of the planning entity. The method was developed and tested in case studies in three different sectors in Sweden (the health sector, the tourism sector and water resource management). The result of the case studies is that the tailor-made scenario approach facilitated the engagement of the local planning body in climate change adaptation and helped them to analyse consequences and possible solutions in a structured way. However, the scenarios that emerged mainly focused on socioeconomic drivers on which the planning body had a large impact or drivers that can be influenced through cooperation with other actors at the local or regional level. While this result underlines the need for local stakeholder involvement in scenario processes, it also indicates a local bias that could be remedied by a stronger representation of national and global perspectives in the scenario development process. Finally, we discuss how a “bottom-up” approach could be combined with a “consistency” approach, which points towards a possible way forward to a hybrid methodology that is compatible with the scenario framework currently being developed in connection to the fifth assessment report of the IPCC.

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Notes

  1. The climate scenario was based on the climate modelling of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI, 2011). Starting with a global climate model (ECHAM4/OPYC3), SMHI performs calculations with finer resolution over Europe using the regional climate model RCA3. The heat wave scenario was constructed as follows. If for example the minimum temperature in Paris on a particular date during the heat wave of 2003 was 3 standard deviations above the average in Paris, then we assumed a corresponding temperature anomaly over Umeå with a minimum temperature that was 3 standard deviations above the projected climate in Umeå in the year 2030. During the projected 2-week heat wave in Umeå, July 2030 (the hottest month in Umeå), the minimum temperature peaked at 20 °C (3 days) and the maximum temperature reached 33 °C (2 days). These figures should be compared to the 30-year averages for minimum and maximum temperature in July in Umeå, which are 11 and 19.5 °C respectively. Hence, the modelled heat wave represents a substantial alternation of normal conditions.

  2. The regional climate projection used in the study meant that the mean temperature during winter (summer) in 2030 will increase by 2.5 (1.5) °C. In the medium climate scenario for 2060 the mean temperature during winter (summer) will increase by 3.5 (2–2.5) °C, while the high climate change scenario imply increased winter (summer) temperature by 5.5 (3–3.5) °C.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank all participants in the three case studies and especially the municipal civil servants that helped organise the studies. The Swedish Environmental Protection Agency is acknowledged for financial support through the research programme CLIMATOOLS. We also give a special thanks to the anonymous reviewers for many useful suggestions for improvement.

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  1. Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI), SE-164 90, Stockholm, Sweden

    Henrik Carlsen, Karl Henrik Dreborg & Per Wikman-Svahn

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  1. Henrik Carlsen
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  2. Karl Henrik Dreborg
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  3. Per Wikman-Svahn
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Correspondence to Per Wikman-Svahn.

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Carlsen, H., Dreborg, K.H. & Wikman-Svahn, P. Tailor-made scenario planning for local adaptation to climate change. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 18, 1239–1255 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-012-9419-x

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