Abstract
A stochastic study of long-term forecasts of seawater intrusion with an application to the Korba aquifer (Tunisia) is presented. Firstly, a geostatistical model of the exploitation rates was constructed, based on a multi-linear regression model combining incomplete direct data and exhaustive secondary information. Then, a new method was designed and used to construct a geostatistical model of the hydraulic conductivity field by combining lithological information and data from hydraulic tests. Secondly, the effects of the uncertainties associated with the pumping rates and the hydraulic conductivity field on the 3D density-dependent transient model were analysed separately and then jointly. The forecasts of the impacts of two different management scenarios on seawater intrusion in the year 2048 were performed by means of Monte Carlo simulations, accounting for uncertainties in the input parameters as well as possible changes of the boundary conditions. Combining primary and secondary data allowed maps of pumping rates and the hydraulic conductivity field to be constructed, despite a lack of direct data. The results of the stochastic long-term forecasts showed that, most probably, the Korba aquifer will be subject to important losses in terms of regional groundwater resources.
Résumé
On présente ici une étude stochastique des prévisions à long terme de l’intrusion marine, avec son application à l’aquifère de Korba (Tunisie). En premier lieu, un modèle géostatistique des débits d’exploitation a été construit sur la base d’un modèle de régression multilinéaire combinant des données directes incomplètes et des informations secondaires exhaustives. Ensuite, on a élaboré et utilisé une nouvelle méthodologie de construction d’un modèle géostatistique du champ de conductivité hydraulique en combinant des données lithologiques et des données issues des tests hydrauliques. Dans un second temps, on a analysé séparément puis conjointement les effets des incertitudes associées aux débits de pompage et au champ de conductivité hydraulique sur le modèle transitoire 3D avec effet de densité. Les prévisions des impacts sur l’intrusion saline de deux scénarios différents de gestion à l’horizon 2048 ont été calculés au moyen de simulations de Monte Carlo, tenant compte à la fois de l’incertitude sur les paramètres d’entrée et de possibles changements dans les conditions aux limites. La combinaison de données principales et secondaires a permis la construction de cartes de débits d’exploitation et de champ de conductivité hydraulique malgré le manque d’information directe. Les résultats des prévisions stochastiques à long terme montrent que l’aquifère de Korba subira très probablement d’importantes pertes des ressources en eaux souterraines.
Resumen
Se presenta un estudio estocástico a largo plazo de pronóstico de la intrusión de agua de mar con una aplicación al acuífero de Korba (Túnez). En primer lugar, se construyó un modelo geoestadístico de los caudales de explotación, basado en un modelo de regresión multi linear combinando datos directos incompletos y información secundaria exhaustiva. Luego, se diseñó y usó un método para construir un nuevo modelo geoestadístico del campo de conductividad hidráulica combinando información litológica y datos de ensayos de bombeo. En segundo lugar, se analizaron separada y conjuntamente, los efectos de las incertezas asociadas con los caudales de bombeo y el campo de conductividad hidráulica en un modelo transitorio tridimensional dependiente de la densidad. Se realizaron pronósticos de los impactos de dos escenarios diferentes de gestión sobre la intrusión de agua de mar en el año 2048 por medio de simulaciones de Monte Carlo, teniendo en cuenta las incertezas en los parámetros de entrada así como posibles cambios de las condiciones de borde. La combinación de datos primarios y secundarios permitió construir mapas de los caudales de bombeo y de los campos de conductividad hidráulica, a pesar de una falta de datos directos. Los resultados de los pronósticos estocásticos a largo plazo mostraron que, muy probablemente, el acuífero de Korba estará sujeto a pérdidas importantes en términos de los recursos regionales de agua subterránea.
摘要
本文研究了对海水入侵的长期预测随机模型在Korba含水层(突尼斯)的应用。首先,本文在结合了不完全的直接资料和详尽的次级资料的多线性回归模型的基础上,建立了开采率的地质统计模型。然后,文中设计了一种新方法,通过与岩性资料和水力试验得到数据相结合来建立渗透系数场的地质统计模型。第二,文中单独并联合分析了与抽水率、在密度有关的3D传导模型中的渗透系数场有关的不确定性的影响。利用蒙特卡罗模拟,本文预测了到2048年时两种不同的管理情景对海水入侵的影响,解释了输入参数的不确定性和边界条件可能发生的变化。虽然缺乏直接资料,通过综合考虑主要资料和次级资料,文中建立了抽水率和渗透系数场图。随机长期预测的结果显示,就区域地下水资源而言,Korba含水层的水量很有可能会大幅度减少。
Resumo
É apresentado um estudo estocástico de previsões a longo prazo de intrusão marinha com aplicação ao aquífero Korba (Tunísia). Em primeiro lugar foi construído um modelo geoestatístico das taxas de extração, baseado num modelo de regressão multi-linear que combina dados diretos incompletos com informação secundária exaustiva. Depois, foi desenvolvido e utilizado um novo método para construir um modelo geoestatístico do campo de condutividade hidráulica, através da combinação de informação litológica com dados de ensaios hidráulicos. Em segundo lugar, foram analisados, separadamente e depois conjuntamente, os efeitos das incertezas associadas às taxas de bombagem e ao campo de condutividade hidráulica no modelo 3-D transitório dependente da densidade. Foram realizadas as previsões dos impactes de dois cenários distintos de gestão na intrusão marinha no ano de 2048, através de simulações de Monte Carlo, tendo em conta as incertezas nos parâmetros de entrada, assim como eventuais alterações das condições de fronteira. Não obstante a escassez de dados diretos, a combinação de dados primários e secundários permitiu construir mapas de taxas de bombagem e do campo da condutividade hidráulica. Os resultados das previsões estocásticas a longo prazo mostraram que, muito provavelmente, o aquífero Korba vai estar sujeito a perdas importantes em termos de recursos hídricos subterrâneos regionais.
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Acknowledegments
This work has been funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation under Grants: 207020-110017 and PP002-106557. The authors thank Ghislain de Marsily, Rachid Ababou, Jesus Carrera as well as Ellen Milnes and Philip Brunner for providing valuable suggestions on the manuscript. The authors are also grateful to Gregoire Mariethoz and three anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments.
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Kerrou, J., Renard, P., Cornaton, F. et al. Stochastic forecasts of seawater intrusion towards sustainable groundwater management: application to the Korba aquifer (Tunisia). Hydrogeol J 21, 425–440 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-012-0911-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-012-0911-x