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Rainfall regime changes and trends in Botswana Kalahari Transect’s late summer precipitation

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Abstract

Sixty-year-long January–March (JFM) rainfall data from four (4) stations along the Kalahari Transect were analyzed for long-term trends and abrupt changes in rainfall regimes. On average, JFM rainfall accounts for more than 50 % of annual rainfall in the region. Mann–Kendall trend test has shown an insignificant heterogeneous trend in the seasonal rainfall of −1.097, 0.029, −0.407, and −1.327 mm/year for Maun, Ghanzi, Tsabong, and Tshane, respectively. An abrupt change in rainfall regimes in these areas was investigated and was found to occur in the year 1982 for all stations. The change is related to large-scale atmospheric circulations. Analysis of large-scale atmospheric circulations before 1982 over the region has shown the formation of a tropical low pressure convective system over the Kalahari Transect. The tropical system shifted eastward after 1982 to be centered over southeastern southern Africa with a significant reduction in rainfall over the Kalahari. A direct impact of this is the livestock-induced overgrazing which has lead to excessive removal of palatable herbaceous species thereby giving woody species, such as Accacia mellifera and Grewia flava, a competitive edge for dominance in the ecosystems. Seed production of A. mellifera depends on rainfall; therefore, abrupt changes in rainfall regimes impact livelihood and eco-tourism industry. The correlation studies between rainfall anomalies and NINO3.4 indices show a reduction in the influence of El-Niño Southern Oscillation on the Kalahari Transect rainfall after 1982.

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Acknowledgments

We would like to gratefully acknowledge the Department of Science and Technology of the Government of India through Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) for funding this project as it is part of CV Raman Internal fellowship for African Researcher for which the leading author has been granted in 2011. We are also thankful to Botswana Department of Meteorological Service and NCEP/NCAR for the provision of data used in the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Physics Department, University of Botswana, P/Bag 0022, Gaborone, Botswana

    K. M. Mphale & A. Adedoyin

  2. Center of Atmospheric Sciences, IIT Delhi, Hauz Khaz, New Delhi,, 110 016, India

    S. K. Dash & S. K. Panda

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  1. K. M. Mphale
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  3. A. Adedoyin
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  4. S. K. Panda
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Correspondence to K. M. Mphale.

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Mphale, K.M., Dash, S.K., Adedoyin, A. et al. Rainfall regime changes and trends in Botswana Kalahari Transect’s late summer precipitation. Theor Appl Climatol 116, 75–91 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-0907-z

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