Summary
The dominant climatic mode responsible for seasonal rainfall variability across central southern Africa has been well-established as ENSO. Hence, the El Niño signal of the equatorial Pacific has been used extensively to predict droughts in this sub-region. Although this paper acknowledges that El Niño influences rainfall deficits over eastern southern Africa, an earlier signal of extreme positive sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies at Darwin for the averaged March to June period (MAMJ Darwin) has proved to have a superior remote connection to droughts in the sub-region. Simple linear statistical tools including composite techniques and correlation methods have been employed on century long data sets (1901–2000) to identify the emerging paramount connection between MAMJ Darwin SLP anomalies and southern African rainfall.
Both MAMJ Darwin SLP anomalies and the Zimbabwe seasonal rainfall time series are significantly correlated (above the 95% significant level) with sea surface temperature anomalies. These represent the Indian Ocean Dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean and ENSO in the tropical Pacific for the averaged September to December period. ‘Pure’ MAMJ Darwin (that occur in the absence of El Niño in the Pacific) coincide with droughts more significantly (83% hit rate) than ‘pure’ El Niño events (not preceded by a high MAMJ Darwin) (38% hit rate). Co-occurrences (MAMJ Darwin preceded by El Niño) do not only have the highest hit rate of 93% but subsequent droughts are noticeably more severe. The ‘pure’ El Niños however, are not only poorly related to Zimbabwe seasonal rainfall deficits, but are apparently not connected to extreme droughts of the 20th century. Thus, MAMJ Darwin is a good simple predictor of droughts associated with or without ENSO in the Pacific. The high prediction skill of these results, especially the inherent longer lead-time than ENSO, makes MAMJ Darwin SLP anomalies an ideal additional input candidate for sub-regional drought monitoring and forecasting schemes. In this way, drought early warning and disaster preparedness activities can be enhanced over the sub-region.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
CT Agnew (1999) ArticleTitleUsing the SPI to identify drought Drought Network News 12 IssueID1 6–12
R Allan D Chambers W Drosdowsky H Hendon M Latif N Nicholls I Smith R Stone Y Tourre (2001) ArticleTitleIs there an Indian Ocean Dipole, and is it independent of the El Niño – Southern Oscillation? CLIVAR Exchanges 6 18–22
K Ashok Z Guan T Yamagata (2003) ArticleTitleInfluence of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the Australian Winter rainfall Geophys Res Lett 30 1821 Occurrence Handle10.1029/2003GL017926
A Baquero-Bernal M Latif (2002) ArticleTitleOn dipole-like variability in the tropical Indian Ocean J Climate 15 IssueID11 1358–1368 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1358:ODVOSS>2.0.CO;2
SK Behera T Yamagata (2003) ArticleTitleInfluence of the Indian Ocean dipole on the Southern Oscillation J Meteor Soc Japan 81 IssueID1 169–177 Occurrence Handle10.2151/jmsj.81.169
SK Behera J Luo S Masson (2005) ArticleTitleParamount impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the East African Short Rains J Climate 18 IssueID21 4514–4530 Occurrence Handle10.1175/JCLI3541.1
MA Cane G Eshel RW Buckland (1994) ArticleTitleForecasting Zimbabwean maize yields using eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature Nature 370 204–205 Occurrence Handle10.1038/370204a0
DP Chambers BD Tapley RH Stewart (1999) ArticleTitleAnomalous warming in the Indian Ocean coincident with El Niño J Geophys Res 104 10523–10533 Occurrence Handle10.1029/1998JC900085
CO Clark JE Cole PJ Webster (2000) ArticleTitleIndian Ocean SST and Indian summer rainfall: predictive relationships and their decadal variability J Climate 13 2503–2519 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<2503:IOSAIS>2.0.CO;2
CO Clark PJ Webster JE Cole (2003) ArticleTitleInterdecadal variability of the relationship between the Indian Ocean zonal mode and East African coastal rainfall anomalies J Climate 16 548–554 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<0548:IVOTRB>2.0.CO;2
N Fauchereau S Trazaska M Rouault Y Richard (2003) ArticleTitleRainfall variability and changes in southern Africa during the last 20th century in the Global Warming context Nat Hazards 29 139–154 Occurrence Handle10.1023/A:1023630924100
NE Graham (1994) ArticleTitleDecadal-scale climate variability in the 1970s and 1980s: observations of model results Clim Dynam 10 135–159 Occurrence Handle10.1007/s003820050040
NB Guttman (1999) ArticleTitleAccepting the Standardized Precipitation Index: a calculation algorithm J Amer Water Resources assn 35 311–322 Occurrence Handle10.1111/j.1752-1688.1999.tb03592.x
S Iizuka T Matsuura T Yamagata (2000) ArticleTitleThe Indian Ocean SST Diploe simulated in coupled general circulation model Geophys Res Lett 27 3369–3372 Occurrence Handle10.1029/2000GL011484
MR Jury DB Enfield J Me’lice (2002) ArticleTitleTropical monsoons around Africa: stability of El Niño Southern Oscillation associations and links with continental climate J Geophys Res 107 IssueIDC10 3151 Occurrence Handle10.1029/2000JC000507
MR Jury ND Mwafulirwa (2002) ArticleTitleClimate variability in Malawi. Part: 1. Dry summers, statistical associations and predictability Int J Climatol 22 IssueID11 1289–1302 Occurrence Handle10.1002/joc.771
WA Landman SJ Mason (1999) ArticleTitleChange in the association between Indian Ocean sea-surface temperatures and summer rainfall over South Africa and Namibia Int J Climatol 19 IssueID13 1477–1492 Occurrence Handle10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(19991115)19:13<1477::AID-JOC432>3.0.CO;2-W
Makarau A (1995) Intra-seasonal oscillatory modes of southern African African summer circulation. PhD thesis, University of Cape Town
SJ Mason (1997) ArticleTitleRecent changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation events and their implications for southern African climate Transact Roy Soc South Africa 52 377–403
CH Matarira (1990) ArticleTitleDrought over Zimbabwe in a regional and global context Int J Climatol 10 609–625 Occurrence Handle10.1002/joc.3370100605
McKee TB, Doesken NJ, Kleist J (1993) The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scale. In: Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology, Anaheim, CA (USA), pp 179–184
R Murtugudde JP McCreary SuffixJr AJ Busalacchi (2000) ArticleTitleOceanic processes associated with anomalous events in the Indian Ocean with relevance to 1997–1998 J Geophys Res 105 3295–3306 Occurrence Handle10.1029/1999JC900294
CC Mutai MN Ward AW Colman (1998) ArticleTitleTowards the prediction to the East Africa Short rains based on sea surface temperature-atmosphere coupling Int J Climatol 18 975–997 Occurrence Handle10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199807)18:9<975::AID-JOC259>3.0.CO;2-U
SE Nicholson L Leposo J Grist (2000) ArticleTitleThe relationship between El Niño and drought over Botswana J Climate 14 323–335 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<0323:TRBENO>2.0.CO;2
L Ogallo E Janowiak MS Halpert (1988) ArticleTitleTeleconnections between seasonal rainfall over east Africa and global seas surface temperature anomalies J Meteor Soc Japan 66 807–821
Paulo AA, Ferreira E, Pereira LS (2005) Stochastic prediction of SPI drought class transitions ICID 21st European Regional Conference – May 2005 – Germany and Poland
J Phillips MA Cane C Rosenzweig (1998) ArticleTitleENSO, seasonal rainfall patterns and maize yield variability in Zimbabwe Agric Forest Meteor 90 39–50 Occurrence Handle10.1016/S0168-1923(97)00095-6
Rasmusson M, Eugene EM (1987) Global climate change and variability: effects on drought and desertification in Africa, WMO, Papers presented at the regional Seminar Addis Ababa November 1985, pp 1–32
CJC Reason (1999) ArticleTitleInterannual warm and cool events in the subtropical: mid-latitude South Indian Ocean region Geophys Res Lett 26 215–218 Occurrence Handle10.1029/1998GL900285
CJC Reason H Mulenga (1999) ArticleTitleRelationships between South African rainfall and SST anomalies in the south West Indian Ocean Int J Climatol 19 1651–1673 Occurrence Handle10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199912)19:15<1651::AID-JOC439>3.0.CO;2-U
CJC Reason RJ Allan JA Lindesay TJ Ansell (2000) ArticleTitleENSO and climatic signals in the Indian Ocean basin in the global contex. Part 1: Inter-annual composite patterns Int J Climatol 20 1285–1327 Occurrence Handle10.1002/1097-0088(200009)20:11<1285::AID-JOC536>3.0.CO;2-R
Y Richard N Fauchereau I Poccard M Rouault S Trzaska (2001) ArticleTitle20th century droughts in southern Africa: spatial and temporal variability, teleconnections with oceanic and atmospheric conditions Int J Climatol 21 873–885 Occurrence Handle10.1002/joc.656
A Rocha I Simmonds (1996) ArticleTitleInterannual variability of South-eastern African summer rainfall. Part I: Relationships with air-sea interaction processes Int J Climatol 17 IssueID3 235–265 Occurrence Handle10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(19970315)17:3<235::AID-JOC123>3.0.CO;2-N
CF Ropelewski MS Halpert (1987) ArticleTitleGlobal and regional-scale precipitation patterns associated with the El-Niño/Southern Oscillation Mon Wea Rev 115 1606–1626 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1606:GARSPP>2.0.CO;2
M Rouault Y Richard (2005) ArticleTitleIntensity and spatial extent of droughts in southern Africa Geophys Res Lett 32 L15702 Occurrence Handle10.1029/2005GL022436
NH Saji BN Goswami PN Vinayachandran T Yamagata (1999) ArticleTitleA dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean Nature 401 360–363
M Shinoda R Kawamura (1996) ArticleTitleRelationships between rainfall over semi-arid southern Africa and geopotential heights, and sea surface temperatures J Meteor Soc Japan 74 21–36
P Terray (1994) ArticleTitleAn evaluation of climatological data in the Indian Ocean area J Met Soc Japan 72 359–386
Todd PM, Wallace JM (2003) Recent trends in the Southern Oscillation Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO). jisao.washington.edu/wallace/sotrends121803.pdf
KE Trenberth (1990) ArticleTitleRecent observed interdecadal climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere Bull Amer Meteor Soc 71 988–993 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0477(1990)071<0988:ROICCI>2.0.CO;2
KE Trenberth TJ Hoar (1996) ArticleTitleThe 1990–1995 El Niño Southern Oscillation event: longest on record Geophys Res Lett 23 57–60 Occurrence Handle10.1029/95GL03602
SM Vicente-Serrano (2005) ArticleTitleDifferences in spatial patterns of drought on different time scales: an analysis of the Iberian Peninsula Water Resour Manag 20 1
ND Walker (1990) ArticleTitleLinks between South African summer rainfall and temperature variability of the Agulhas and Benguela Currents systems J Geophys Res 95 3297–3319 Occurrence Handle10.1029/JC095iC03p03297
B Wang (1995) ArticleTitleInterdecadal changes in El Niño onset in the last four decades J Climate 8 267–285 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008<0267:ICIENO>2.0.CO;2
R Washington M Swann M New (2003) ArticleTitleTropical oceans and the predictability of southern African rainfall in the HadCM3 coupled climate model Cliva Exchanges 27 2003
P Waylen S Henworth (1996) ArticleTitleA note on the timing of precipitation variability in Zimbabwe, as related to the Southern Oscillation Int J Climatol 16 1137–1148 Occurrence Handle10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199610)16:10<1137::AID-JOC69>3.0.CO;2-A
P Webster JA Moore NH Saji BN Goswami PN Vinayachandran T Yamagata (1999) ArticleTitleA dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean Nature 401 360–363 Occurrence Handle10.1038/43848
World Bank (2006) Agriculture and rural development, regions, Sub Sahara Africa 2006
Yamagata T, Behera SK, Rao SA, Guan Z, Ashok K (2002) The Indian Ocean dipole: a physical entity – CLIVAR Exchanges, 2002
T Yamagata SK Behera J Luo S Masson P Delecluse P Gualdi A Navarra (2003) ArticleTitleImpact of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the East African Short Rains: a CGCM study CLIVAR Exchanges 27 43–45
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Additional information
Authors’ addresses: D. Manatsa, W. Chingombe, H. Matsikwa, Faculty of Science, Bindura University of Science Education, P. Bag 1020, Bindura, Zimbabwe; C. H. Matarira, Department of Geography and Environmental Science, National University of Lesotho, Roma 180, Lesotho.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Manatsa, D., Chingombe, W., Matsikwa, H. et al. The superior influence of Darwin Sea level pressure anomalies over ENSO as a simple drought predictor for Southern Africa. Theor Appl Climatol 92, 1–14 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-007-0315-3
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-007-0315-3