Abstract
The impact of climate change on crop yield is compounded by cultivar shifts and agronomic management practices. To determine the relative contributions of climate change, cultivar shift, and management practice to changes in maize (Zea mays L.) yield in the past three decades, detailed field data for 1981–2009 from four representative experimental stations in North China Plain (NCP) were analyzed via model simulation. The four representative experimental stations are geographically and climatologically different, represent the typical cropping system in the study area, and have more complete weather/crop records for the period of 1981–2009. The results showed that while the shift from traditional to modern cultivar increased yield by 23.9–40.3 %, new fertilizer management increased yield by 3.3–8.6 %. However, the trends in climate variables for 1981–2009 reduced maize yield by 15–30 % in the study area. Among the main climate variables, solar radiation had the largest effect on maize yield, followed by temperature and then precipitation. While a significant decline in solar radiation in 1981–2009 (maybe due to air pollution) reduced yield by 12–24 %, a significant increase in temperature reduced yield by 3–9 %. In contrast, a non-significant increase in precipitation during the maize growth period increased yield by 0.9–3 % at three of the four investigated stations. However, a decline in precipitation reduced yield by 3 % in the remaining station. The study revealed that although the shift from traditional to modern cultivars and agronomic management practices contributed most to the increase in maize yield, the negative impact of climate change was large enough to offset 46–67 % of the trend in the observed yields in the past three decades in NCP. The reduction in solar radiation, especially in the most critical period of maize growth, limited the process of photosynthesis and thereby further reduced maize yield.
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Acknowledgments
This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 41571088 and 41401104), Science and Technology Strategic Pilot Projects of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. XDA05090308), Natural Science Foundation of Hebei Province (D2015302017), China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2015M570167), and Science and Technology Planning Project of Hebei Academy of Sciences (15101). Funding support by FACCE MACSUR project through the Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry is also gratefully acknowledged. We are thankful to the capable anonymous reviewers and editors who contributed invaluably by raising critical suggestions and remarks during the review phase of this publication.
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Xiao, D., Tao, F. Contributions of cultivar shift, management practice and climate change to maize yield in North China Plain in 1981–2009. Int J Biometeorol 60, 1111–1122 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-015-1104-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-015-1104-9