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Comparison and evaluation of uncertainties in extreme flood estimations of the upper Yangtze River by the Delta and profile likelihood function methods

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Abstract

Frequency calculation for extreme flood and methods used for its uncertainty estimation are popular subjects in hydrology research. In this study, uncertainties in extreme flood estimations of the upper Yangtze River were investigated using the Delta and profile likelihood function (PLF) methods, which were used to calculate confidence intervals of key parameters of the generalized extreme value distribution and quantiles of extreme floods. Datasets of annual maximum daily flood discharge (AMDFD) from six hydrological stations located in the main stream and tributaries of the upper Yangtze River were selected in this study. The results showed that AMDFD data from the six stations followed the Weibull distribution, which has a short tail and is bounded above with an upper bound. Of the six stations, the narrowest confidence interval can be detected in the Yichang station, and the widest interval was found in the Cuntan station. Results also show that the record length and the return period are two key factors affecting the confidence interval. The width of confidence intervals decreased with the increase of record length because more information was available, while the width increased with the increase of return period. In addition, the confidence intervals of design floods were similar for both methods in a short return period. However, there was a comparatively large difference between the two methods in a long return period, because the asymmetry of the PLF curve increases with an increase in the return period. This asymmetry of the PLF method is more proficient in reflecting the uncertainty of design flood, suggesting that PLF method is more suitable for uncertainty analysis in extreme flood estimations of the upper Yangtze River Basin.

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Acknowledgements

The research is financially supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (“973” Program) (Grant Nos.: 2013CB036406 and 2015CB452701) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.: 51679252 and 51379223).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, 100038, China

    Jianhua Wang, Fan Lu, Weihua Xiao & Xinyi Song

  2. Department of Water Resources and Environment, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, China

    Kairong Lin & Yanhu He

  3. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong High Education Institute, Guangzhou, 510275, China

    Kairong Lin & Yanhu He

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  1. Jianhua Wang
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  2. Fan Lu
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  4. Weihua Xiao
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Correspondence to Kairong Lin.

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Wang, J., Lu, F., Lin, K. et al. Comparison and evaluation of uncertainties in extreme flood estimations of the upper Yangtze River by the Delta and profile likelihood function methods. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 31, 2281–2296 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-016-1370-z

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