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Probabilistic seasonal streamflow forecasts of the Citarum River, Indonesia, based on general circulation models

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Abstract

In this study we discuss probabilistic forecasts of Citarum River streamflow, which supplies 80 % of the water demands in Jakarta, Indonesia, based on general circulation model (GCM) output, for the September–November (SON) season. Retrospective forecasts of precipitation made over the period 1982–2010 with two coupled-ocean atmosphere GCMs, initialized in August, are used in conjunction historical streamflow records, with a cross-validated regression model. Pearson’s product moment correlation skill values of 0.58–0.67 are obtained, with relative operating characteristic scores of 0.67–0.84 and 0.74–0.92 for the lower and upper tercile categories of flows respectively. Both GCMs thus demonstrate promising ability to forecast below/above normal streamflow for the Citarum River flow during the SON season.

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Acknowledgments

We are grateful for the comments of two anonymous reviewers that substantially improved the manuscript. We thank the GCOE-ARS Program of Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI), Kyoto University. We wish to thank the two GCM modeling centers whose models formed the basis for our study. The computing for the ECHAM4–MOM3 runs made at IRI was partially provided by a grant from the NCAR CSL program to the IRI, and the IRI Data Library was used to obtain all of the climate data used (http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/). The regression models were constructed using the climate predictability tool (CPT) software developed at the IRI (http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/tools/cpt).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi, Delhi, 110007, India

    Netrananda Sahu & R. B. Singh

  2. International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), The Earth Institute at Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA

    Andrew W. Robertson & David G. DeWitt

  3. Bogor Agricultural University, Bogor, Java, Indonesia

    Rizaldi Boer

  4. Research Institute for Global Change, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan

    Swadhin Behera

  5. Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI), Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto, 611-0011, Japan

    Netrananda Sahu & Kaoru Takara

  6. Department of Geography, Kalindi College, University of Delhi, Delhi, 110008, India

    Manish Kumar

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  1. Netrananda Sahu
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Correspondence to Netrananda Sahu.

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Sahu, N., Robertson, A.W., Boer, R. et al. Probabilistic seasonal streamflow forecasts of the Citarum River, Indonesia, based on general circulation models. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 31, 1747–1758 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-016-1297-4

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