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Uncertainty in CMIP5 model-projected changes in the onset/retreat of the Australian summer monsoon

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Abstract

This study addresses several significant drawbacks in our previous analyses of how Australian summer monsoon onset/retreat may respond to global warming in CMIP3 model simulations. We have analysed daily 850 hPa wind, volumetric precipitable water, precipitation and temperature data from 26 CMIP5 models over a pair of 55-year simulations. Firstly, the CMIP5 models do not show significant improvement in capturing observed features of the monsoon onset/retreat in the region, despite of a slightly reduced bias in multi-model ensemble results. We show that wind–rainfall relationship varies with models and rainfall-based wet season onsets may not adequately represent the monsoon development. Under global warming, although 26-model averages show delayed onset and shortened duration, significant uncertainty exists: 10 models simulated delayed onset but it became earlier in another group of 7 models. Similar model discrepancies are seen in the modelled changes in retreat dates. The range of uncertainty in the projected changes is similar in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models and further analysis re-affirms previously proposed reasons: one is the different influence of a number of drivers in these models and the other is the different changes in these drivers themselves in future climate. Overall, most of the models showed impacts of ENSO and the Indian Ocean on the Australian summer monsoon onset/retreat, but the models differed quite significantly in the magnitude of such impacts. Another factor is different warming patterns and magnitudes in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. When combined, the two provide a better explanation of the scatter among the 26 CMIP5 model results.

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Acknowledgments

The project is partially supported by the Australian Climate Change Science Programme. Mr. GuangTao Dong’s visit to CAWCR in 2013 was through the bilateral collaborations between Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the China Meteorological Administration. The authors acknowledge useful discussions with Dr. I. Smith and appreciate the thoughtful comments from Drs. S. Grainger and G. Roff on an earlier draft and very thoughtful comments from two anonymous reviewers. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we the climate modelling groups (see Table 1) for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP the US Department of Energy’s PCMDI provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Bureau of Meteorology, GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne, VIC, 3001, Australia

    Huqiang Zhang, A. Moise, R. Colman, L. Hanson & H. Ye

  2. College of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

    Guangtao Dong

  3. Shanghai Regional Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai, China

    Guangtao Dong

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  1. Huqiang Zhang
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Correspondence to Huqiang Zhang.

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Zhang, H., Dong, G., Moise, A. et al. Uncertainty in CMIP5 model-projected changes in the onset/retreat of the Australian summer monsoon. Clim Dyn 46, 2371–2389 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2707-x

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