Abstract
Despite the development of a variety of decision-aid tools for assessing the value of a conceptual design, humans continue to play a dominant role in this process. Researchers have identified two major challenges to automation, namely the subjectivity of value and the existence of multiple and conflicting customer needs. A third challenge is however arising as the amount of data (e.g., expert judgment, requirements, and engineering models) required to assess value increases. This brings two challenges. First, it becomes harder to modify existing knowledge or add new knowledge into the knowledge base. Second, it becomes harder to trace the results provided by the tool back to the design variables and model parameters. Current tools lack the scalability and traceability required to tackle these knowledge-intensive design evaluation problems. This work proposes a traceable and scalable rule-based architecture evaluation tool called VASSAR that is especially tailored to tackle knowledge-intensive problems that can be formulated as configuration design problems, which is demonstrated using the conceptual design task for a laptop. The methodology has three main steps. First, facts containing the capabilities and performance of different architectures are computed using rules containing physical and logical models. Second, capabilities are compared with requirements to assess satisfaction of each requirement. Third, requirement satisfaction is aggregated to yield a manageable number of metrics. An explanation facility keeps track of the value chain all along this process. This paper describes the methodology in detail and discusses in particular different implementations of preference functions as logical rules. A full-scale example around the design of Earth observing satellites is presented.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
An earlier version of the VASSAR methodology was presented at the 2013 IEEE Aerospace Conference (Selva and Crawley, 2013), although that paper focused on the implications for space system architecting.
References
Antonsson EK, Cagan J (2001) Formal engineering design synthesis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. doi:10.1017/CBO9780511529627
Apgar H (2011) Cost estimating. In: Wertz JR, Everett DF, Puschell JJ (eds) Space mission engineering: the new SMAD. Microcosm, Hawthorne
Armacost RL, Componation PJ, Mullens MA, Swart WS (1994) An AHP framework for prioritizing customer requirements in QFD: an industrialized housing application. IIE Trans 26(4):72–79
Avigad G, Moshaiov A (2009) Interactive evolutionary multiobjective search and optimization of set-based concepts. IEEE Trans Syst Man Cybern Part B Cybern 39(4):1013–1027. doi:10.1109/TSMCB.2008.2011565
Bellman RE, Zadeh LA (1970) Decision-making in a fuzzy environment. Manag Sci 17(4):B-141
Bonczek RH, Holsapple CW, Whinston AB (1981) A generalized decision support system using predicate calculus and network data base management. Oper Res 29(2):263–281. doi:10.2307/170020
Buchanan BG, Shortliffe EH (1984) Rule-based expert systems: the MYCIN experiments of the Stanford Heuristic Programming Project. Language. Addison-Wesley, Reading
Cameron B (2008) Value flow mapping: using networks to inform stakeholder analysis. Acta Astronaut 62(4–5):324–333. doi:10.1016/j.actaastro.2007.10.001
Campbell M, Cagan J, Kotovsky K (1999) A-design: an agent-based approach to conceptual design in a dynamic environment. Res Eng Design 11:172–192
Carlson-Skalak S, White M, Teng Y (1998) Using an evolutionary algorithm for catalog design. Res Eng Design 10:63–83
Chalmers University of Technology (2004) Use of P-band SAR for forest biomass and soil moisture retrieval. Retrieved from http://esamultimedia.esa.int/docs/gsp/completed/C16115ExS.pdf
Chandrasekaran B (1989) A framework for design problem-solving. Res Eng Design 1:75–86
Charnes A, Cooper WW (1957) Management models and industrial applications of linear programming. Manage Sci 4(1):38–91
Clancey WJ (1987) Knowledge-based tutoring: the GUIDON program. In: MIT Press series in artificial intelligence. The MIT Press, Cambridge
Corkill DD (2003) Blackboard and multi-agent system & the future. In: Proceedings of the international lisp conference, New York, NY. Retrieved from http://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&btnG=Search&q=intitle:Blackboard+and+Multi-Agent+Systems+&+the+Future#5
Crawley E, De Weck O, Eppinger S, Magee C, Moses J, Seering W et al (2004) The influence of architecture in engineering systems. In: Engineering systems monograph. Architecture
Das I, Dennis JE (1998) Normal-boundary intersection: a new method for generating the pareto surface in nonlinear multicriteria optimization problems. SIAM J Optim 8(3). doi:10.1137/S1052623496307510
De Condorcet M (1785) Essai sur l’application de l’analyse à la probabilité des décisions rendues à la probabilité des voix. De l’Imprimerie Royale, Paris
De Weck OL, Kim IY (2004) Adaptive weighted sum method for bi-objective optimization. In: Proceedings of the 45th AIAA/ASME/ASCE/, pp 1–13
Deb K, Pratap A, Agarwal S, Meyarivan T (2002) A fast and elitist multiobjective genetic algorithm: NSGA-II. IEEE Trans Evol Comput 6(2):182–197. doi:10.1109/4235.996017
Dincbas M (1980) A knowledge-based expert system for automatic analysis and synthesis in CAD. In: IFIP congress (pp 705–710)
Dobias AP (1990) Designing a mouse trap using the analytic hierarchy process and expert choice. Eur J Oper Res 48(1):57–65
Donaldson KM, Ishii K, Sheppard SD (2006) Customer value chain analysis. Res Eng Design 16(4):174–183. doi:10.1007/s00163-006-0012-8
Dori D (2002) Object-process methodology: a holistic paradigm. Springer, Berlin, pp 1–453
Duda RO, Gaschnig JG, Hart PE (1979) Model design in the PROSPECTOR consultant system for mineral exploration. In: Michie D (ed) Expert systems in the microelectronic age. Edinburgh University Press, Edinburgh, pp 153–167
Durkin J (1990) Application of expert systems in the sciences. Ohio J Sci 90(5):171–179
Engelmore R, Morgan T (eds) (1988) Blackboard systems. Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, Reading, pp 1–620
Entekhabi D (2010) The soil moisture active passive (SMAP) mission. In: Proceedings of the IEEE, vol 98, pp 704–716. doi:10.1109/JPROC.2010.2043918
Erman L, Hayes-Roth F (1980) The Hearsay-II speech-understanding system: integrating knowledge to resolve uncertainty. ACM Comput Surv 12(2):213–253. http://dl.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=356816
Feigenbaum EA, Buchanan BG, Lederberg J (1971) On generality and problem solving: a case study using the DENDRAL program. In: Meltzer B, Michie D (eds) Machine Intelligence 6. Edinburgh, Scotland, pp 165–190
Fenves S, Garrett J (1986) Knowledge based standards processing. Artif Intell Eng 1(1):3–14. doi:10.1016/0954-1810(86)90029-4
Fishburn PC (1974) Lexicographic orders, utilities and decision rules: a survey. Manag Sci 20(11):1442–1471
Fortin J, Dubois D, Fargier H (2008) Gradual numbers and their application to fuzzy interval analysis. IEEE Trans Fuzzy Syst 16(2):388–402. doi:10.1109/TFUZZ.2006.890680
Gasster S, Flaming GGM (1998) Overview of the conical microwave imager/sounder development for the NPOESS program. In: Geoscience and remote sensing …, vol 1, pp 268–270. IEEE. doi:10.1109/IGARSS.1998.702874
Geoffrion AM, Dyer JS, Feinberg A (1972) An interactive approach for multi-criterion optimization, with an application to the operation of an academic department. Manag Sci 19(4):357–368
Giarratano JC, Riley GD (2004) Expert systems: principles and programming, 4th edn. Course Technology. Retrieved from http://www.amazon.com/Expert-Systems-Principles-Programming-Fourth/dp/0534384471
Gologlu C, Mizrak C (2011) An integrated fuzzy logic approach to customer-oriented product design. J Eng Des 22(2):113–127. doi:10.1080/09544820903032519
Gutknecht O, Ferber J (2001) The MadKit agent platform architecture. In: Wagner T, Rana O (eds) Infrastructure for agents, multi-agent systems, and scalable multi-agent systems SE—5, vol 1887, pp 48–55. Springer, Berlin. doi:10.1007/3-540-47772-1_5
Habib-Agahi H, Ball G, Fox G (2009) NICM schedule & cost rules of thumb. In: AIAA space 2009 Conference & Exposition. AIAA, Pasadena, pp 6512–6512
Hart P, Duda R, Einaudi M (1978) PROSPECTOR—a computer-based consultation system for mineral exploration. Math Geol (November 1977). Retrieved from http://www.springerlink.com/index/3520V0M3W1864773.pdf
Haskins C (2006) INCOSE systems engineering handbook—a guide for system life cycle processes and activities (No. INCOSE-TP-2003-002-03). International Council on Systems Engineering
Hauser J, Clausing D (1988) The house of quality. Harv Bus Rev (May–June 1998)
Heliere F, Lin CC, Fois F, Davidson M, Thompson A, Bensi P (2009) BIOMASS: a P-band SAR earth explorer core mission candidate. In: Proceedings of the 2009 IEEE radar conference. IEEE. doi:10.1109/RADAR.2009.4977088
Ignizio J (1983) Generalized goal programming—an overview. Comput Operat Res 10(4):277–289
Keeney RL, Raiffa H (1976) Decisions with multiple objectives: preferences and value trade-offs. Wiley, New York, p 592
Koo BHY, Simmons WL, Crawley EF (2009) Algebra of systems: a metalanguage for model synthesis and evaluation. IEEE Trans Syst Man Cybern Part A Syst Hum 39(3):501–513. doi:10.1109/TSMCA.2009.2014546
Kurtoglu T, Campbell MI (2009) An evaluation scheme for assessing the worth of automatically generated design alternatives. Res Eng Design 20(1):59–76. doi:10.1007/s00163-008-0062-1
Lai YJ, Liu TY, Hwang CL (1994) Topsis for MODM. Eur J Oper Res 76(3):486–500
Liao S (2005) Expert system methodologies and applications—a decade review from 1995 to 2004. Expert Syst Appl 28(1):93–103. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2004.08.003
Lighthill J (1973) Artificial Intelligence: a general survey. In: B. S. R. Council (ed) Artificial intelligence: a paper symposium
Lindsay R, Buchanan BG, Feigenbaum EA (1993) DENDRAL: a case study of the first expert system for scientific hypothesis formation. Artif Intell 61(2):209–261. doi:10.1016/0004-3702(93)90068-M
Malen DE, Hancock WM (1995) Engineering for the customer: combining preference and physical systems models: part I—theory. J Eng Des 6(4):315–328
Mattson CA, Messac A (2003) Concept selection using s-Pareto frontiers. AIAA J 41(6):1190–1198. doi:10.2514/2.2063
Mauchand M, Siadat A, Bernard A, Perry N (2008) Proposal for tool-based method of product cost estimation during conceptual design. J Eng Des 19(2):159–172. doi:10.1080/09544820701802857
McDermott J (1982) R1: a rule-based configurer of computer systems. Artif Intell 19(1):39–88. doi:10.1016/0004-3702(82)90021-2
Messac A, Ismail-Yahaya A (2002) Multiobjective robust design using physical programming. Struct Multidiscip Optim 23(5):357–371. doi:10.1007/s00158-002-0196-0
Messac A, Ismail-Yahaya A, Mattson CA (2003) The normalized normal constraint method for generating the Pareto frontier. Struct Multidiscip Optim 25(2):86–98. doi:10.1007/s00158-002-0276-1
Minsky M (1975) A framework for representing knowledge. In: Whinston PH (ed) The psychology of computer vision. McGraw-Hill Book, New York, pp 1–81
Mon DL, Cheng CH, Lin JC (1994) Evaluating weapon system using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process based on entropy weight. Fuzzy Sets Syst 62(2):127–134
Newell A, Simon HA (1972) Human problem solving. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs
Nii H (1986) The blackboard model of problem solving and the evolution of blackboard architectures. AI Magazine 7(2):38–53. Retrieved from http://www.aaai.org/ojs/index.php/aimagazine/article/viewArticle/537
Parasuraman R, Sheridan TB, Wickens CD (2000) A model for types and levels of human interaction with automation. IEEE Trans Syst Man Cybern Part A Syst Hum 30(3):286–297
Pareto V (1896) Cours d’economie politique. Librairie Droz, Geneva
Park J, Han SH (2004) A fuzzy rule-based approach to modeling affective user satisfaction towards office chair design. Int J Ind Ergon 34(1):31–47
Poundstone W (1984) The recursive universe: cosmic complexity and the limits of scientific knowledge. William Morrow, New York, pp 1–252
Pugh S (1991) Total design: integrated methods for successful product engineering. Addison Wesley Publishing Company, Workingham
Purves D (2010) Brains: how they seem to work. FT Press Science, Upper Saddle River, New Jersey, pp 1–320
Radovcic Y, Remouchamps A (2002) BOSS QUATTRO: an open system for parametric design. Struct Multidiscip Optim 23(2):140–152. doi:10.1007/s00158-002-0173-7
Reich Y (2010) My method is better! Res Eng Design 21(3):137–142. doi:10.1007/s00163-010-0092-3
Rohl PJ, Kolonay RM, Irani RK, Sobolewski M, Kao K, Bailey MW (2000) A federated intelligent product environment. In: 8th Symposium on multidisciplinary analysis and optimization
Ross AM, Hastings DE, Warmkessel JM, Diller NP (2004) Multi-attribute tradespace exploration as front end for effective space system design. J Spacecr Rocket 41(1):20–28
Saaty TL (1977) A scaling method for priorities in hierarchical structures. J Math Psychol 15(3):234–281. doi:10.1016/0022-2496(77)90033-5
Saaty TL (1990) How to make a decision: the analytic hierarchy process. Eur J Oper Res 48(1):9–26. doi:10.1016/0377-2217(90)90057-I
Salomon S, Dom C, Avigad G, Freitas A, Goldvard A, Sch O (2014) PSA based multi objective evolutionary algorithms. In: Schuetze O, Coello Coello CA, Tantar A–A, Tantar E, Bouvry P, Del Moral P, Legrand P (eds) EVOLVE—a bridge between probability, set oriented numerics, and evolutionary computation III. Springer, Heidelberg, pp 233–255. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-01460-9
Schreiber G, Akkermans H, Anjewierden A, de Hoog R, Shadbolt N, Van De Velde W, Wielinga B (2000) Knowledge engineering and management: the CommonKADS methodology. MIT Press, Cambridge
Seher T (2009) Campaign-level science traceability for earth observation system architecting (MS Thesis). Dept. of Aeronautics and Astronautics. Retrieved from http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/51639?show=full
Selva D (2012) Rule-based system architecting of Earth observation satellite systems (PhD dissertation, Massachusetts Institute of Technology). ProQuest/UMI, Ann Arbor
Selva D, Crawley E (2013) VASSAR: value assessment of system architectures using rules. In: Aerospace conference, 2013 IEEE. Big Sky: IEEE
Shah JJ, Rogers MT (1993) Assembly modeling as an extension of feature-based design. Res Eng Design 5(3):218–237
Smith P, Reinertsen D (1997) Developing products in half the time: new rules, new tools, 2nd edn. Wiley, London
Spanoudakis G, Zisman A, Pérez-Miñana E, Krause P (2004) Rule-based generation of requirements traceability relations. J Syst Softw 72(2):105–127. doi:10.1016/S0164-1212(03)00242-5
Stewart T (1992) A critical survey on the status of multiple criteria decision making theory and practice. Omega 20(5–6):569–586. doi:10.1016/0305-0483(92)90003-P
Stiny G (1980) Introduction to shape and shape grammars. Environ Plan 7(3):343–351. doi:10.1068/b070343
Suh N (1998) Axiomatic design theory for systems. Res Eng Design 10(4):189–209
Taguchi G, Elsayed E, Hsiang T (1989) Quality engineering in production systems. McGraw-Hill, New York
Thurston DL (1991) A formal method for subjective design evaluation with multiple attributes. Res Eng Design 3(2):105–122. doi:10.1007/BF01581343
Ulrich K (1995) The role of product architecture in the manufacturing firm. Res Policy 24(3):419–440. doi:10.1016/0048-7333(94)00775-3
Von Neumann J, Morgenstern O (1944) Theory of games and economic behavior. Princeton University Press, Princeton, p 625
Welsch C, Swenson H (2001) VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite): a next-generation operational environmental sensor for NPOESS. In: Proceedings of the 2001 international geoscience and remote sensing symposium, vol 3, pp 1020–1022
Wnuk K, Regnell B, Schrewelius C (2009) Architecting and coordinating thousands of requirements—an industrial case study. In: Glinz M, Heymans P (eds) Requirements engineering: foundation for software quality SE—10, vol 5512. Springer, Berlin, pp 118–123. doi:10.1007/978-3-642-02050-6_10
Wolfram S (2002) A new kind of science. Wolfram Media Inc, Champaign
Yager RR (1977) Multiple objective decision-making using fuzzy sets. Int J Man Mach Stud 9(4):375–382
Yager R (1988) On ordered weighted averaging aggregation operators in multicriteria decision making. Syst Man Cybern IEEE Trans 1:183–190
Zadeh L (1963) Optimality and non-scalar-valued performance criteria. IEEE Trans Autom Control 8(1):59–60
Zadeh LA (1965) Fuzzy Sets. Inf Control 8(3):338–353. doi:10.1016/0165-0114(78)90029-5
Zimmerman HJ (1983) Using fuzzy sets in operational research. Eur J Oper Res 13(3):201–216
Ziv-Av A, Reich Y (2005) SOS—subjective objective system for generating optimal product concepts. Des Stud 26(5):509–533. doi:10.1016/j.destud.2004.12.001
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Appendices
Appendix 1: Hierarchy of stakeholder needs for Earth observation example
The information used in the case study for the stakeholders and their hierarchy of requirements are shown below in Tables 6 and 7.
Appendix 2: Characteristics and capabilities of instruments for Earth observation example
The characteristics of the instruments are provided in the Tables 8 and 9.
Appendix 3: Cost model
The cost model used in the case study is a rule-based cost model largely based on Larson and Wertz’s Space Mission Analysis and Design. The first-level decomposition of lifecycle cost is given in Fig. 15.
Payload cost is based on the NASA Instrument Cost model (Habib-Agahi et al. 2009). Bus cost is based on the parametric provided in Apgar (2011). Since these parametrics are based on the spacecraft mass budget, a spacecraft design module that estimates the mass and power budgets of each spacecraft precedes the cost estimation module.
The spacecraft design module is iterative because of the couplings between different subsystems. For example, the mass of the spacecraft affects the design of the ADCS through the size of the reaction wheels and the amount of propellant among others, and these feed back into the computation of the spacecraft mass. In practice, three iterations are sufficient to make the design process converge to a precision of less than a kg. An overview of the spacecraft design module is provided in Fig. 16.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Selva, D., Cameron, B. & Crawley, E.F. A rule-based method for scalable and traceable evaluation of system architectures. Res Eng Design 25, 325–349 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00163-014-0180-x
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00163-014-0180-x