Mathematical analysis of the asymptotic behavior of the Leslie population matrix model

Abstract

LetL be a Leslie population matrix. Leslie (1945) and others have shown that the matrixL has a leading positive eigenvalueλ ₀ and that in general:

$$\mathop {\lim }\limits_{t \to \infty } \frac{{L^t X}}{{\lambda _0^t }} = \gamma X_{\lambda _0 } $$

((1))

whereX _{λ 0} is an eigenvector corresponding toλ ₀,X is any initial population vector, and γ is a scalar quantity detormined byX.

In this article we generalize (1) exhaustively by removing the mild restrictions on the fertility rates which most writers impose. The result is an oscillatory limit of a kind first noted by Bernardelli (1941) and Lewis (1942) and described by Bernardelli as “population waves”. We calculate in terms ofλ ₀ and the entries of the matrixL the values of this oscillatory limit as well as its time-independent average over one period. This calculation includes as its leading special case the result of (1), confirming incidentally that γ is nonzero.

To stabilize a population, the matrixL must be adjusted so thatλ ₀=1. The limits calculated for the oscillatory and non-oscillatory cases then have maximum significance since they represent the limiting population vectors. We discuss a simple scheme for accomplishing stanbilization which yields as a byproduct an easily accessible scalar measure ofL's tendency to promote population growth. The reciprocal of this measure is the familiar net reproduction rate.