Skip to main content
Log in

Cointegration, error correction representation and the import demand function with implications in International Finance and Accounting Research

  • Published:
Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This paper uses the relatively new procedures of cointegration and error-correction modeling to examine the import demand function of three developing economies. The empirical results suggest that the error-correction model performs well and that the poor results of previous studies are attributable to the inappropriate use of the Cochrane-Orcutt procedure and the complete absence of diagnostic testing, especially with respect to parameters stability, autocorrelation, and variable omission.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Arize, A., “An Econometric Investigation of Export Behavior in Seven Asian Developing Countries.”Applied Economics, 891–904, (July 1990).

  • Arize, A., “An Econometric Investigation of Money Demand Behavior in Four Asian Developing Economies.”International Economic Journal, 79–93, (Winter 1989).

  • Arize, A., “The Supply and Demand for Imports and Exports in a Simultaneous Model.”Applied Economics, 1233–1247, (September 1987a).

  • Arize, A., “Past Inflation Variability and the Stability of Demand for Money Function: The Nigerian Experience.”Atlantic Economic Journal, 31–41, (March 1987b).

  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., “On the Effect of Effective Exchange Rates on Trade Flows.”Indian Journal of Economics, 57–67, (July 1984).

  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., “Determinants of International Trade Flows: The Case of Developing Countries.”Journal of Development Economics, 107–123, (January-February 1986).

  • Barnhart, SW, and A.C. Szakmary, “Testing the Unbiased Forward Rate Hypothesis: Evidence on Unit Roots, Cointegration, and Stochastic Coefficients.”Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 245–267, (June 1991).

  • Briguglio, Lino, “The Impact of a Devaluation of the Maltese Trade Balance with Special Reference to the Price and Income Reversal Effects.”Applied Economics, 325–337, (March 1989).

  • Brown, R. L., J. Durbin, and J. M. Evans, “Techniques for Testing the Constancy of Regression Relationships over Time.”Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 27(2), 149–163 (1975).

    Google Scholar 

  • Brown, S., and J.B. Warner, “Measuring Security Price Performance.”Journal of Financial Economics, 205–258, (September 1980).

  • Brown, S., and J.B. Warner, “Using Daily Stock Returns: The Case of Event Studies.”Journal of Financial Economics, 3–31, (March 1985).

  • Crockett, A.D., “Determinants of Exchange Rate Movements: A Review.”Finance and Development 18, 33–37, (March 1981).

    Google Scholar 

  • Davidson, J.E.H., David Hendry, Frank Srba, and Stephen Yeo, “Economic Modeling of the Aggregate Time Series' Relationship between Consumer Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom.”The Economic Journal (London), 80, (1978).

  • Dickey, D.A., and W.A. Fuller, “Distribution of Estimator for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root.”Journal of American Statistical Association, 427–431, (June 1979).

  • Dickey, D.A., and W.A. Fuller, “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root.”Econometrica 49, 1057–1072, (July 1981).

    Google Scholar 

  • Dolado, J.J., T. Jenkins, and S. Sosvilla-Rivero, “Cointegration and Unit Roots.”Journal of Economic Surveys 4(3), 249–273 (1990).

    Google Scholar 

  • Dyckman, T., T. Philbrock, and J. Stephan, “A Comparison of Event Study Methodologies Using Daily Stock Returns: A Simulation Approach.”Journal of Accounting Research, 1–30, (Supplement 1984).

  • Easton, P., T.S. Harris, and J.A. Ohilson, “Accounting Earnings Can Explain Most of Security Returns: The Case of Long Event Windows.” Working paperColumbia University, New York, NY 10027 (October 1989).

    Google Scholar 

  • Engle, Robert F., “Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of the United Kingdom Inflation.”Econometrica, 982–1007, (June 1982).

  • Engle, Robert F., and C.W.J. Granger, “Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing.”Econometrica 55, 251–276, (1987).

    Google Scholar 

  • Engle, Robert F. , and Byung Sam Yoo, “Cointegrated Economic Time Series: A Survey with New Results.” University of California, Discussion paper (October 1989).

  • Farley, J.Y, M.J. Hinich, and T.W. McGuire, “Some Comparisons of Tests for a Shift in the Slope of a Multivariate Linear Time Series Model.”Journal of Econometrics, 297–318, (August 1975).

  • Fuller, W.A.,Introduction to Statistical Time Series. New York: John Wiley and Sons, (1976).

    Google Scholar 

  • Ghartey, Edward, “Devaluation as a Balance of Payments Corrective Measure in Developing Countries: A Study Relating to Ghana.”Applied Economics, 937–947, (July 1987).

  • Godfrey, L.G., “Testing Against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables.”Econometrica, 1293–1302, (November 1978).

  • Goldstein, M., and M.S. Khan, “Large Versus Small Price Changes and the Demand for Imports.”IMF Staff Papers 23, 200–225, (March 1976).

    Google Scholar 

  • Gordon, Robert J., “The Short-Run Demand for Money: A Reconsideration.”Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 16, 403–434, (November 1984, Part 1).

    Google Scholar 

  • Granger, C.W.J., and P. Newbold, “Spurious Regressions in Econometrics.”Journal of Econometrics, 111–120, (July 1974).

  • Hendry, D.F., “Econometric Modelling with Cointegrated Variables: An Overview.”Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 48, 201–212, (August 1986).

    Google Scholar 

  • Hendry, D.F., “Predictive Failure and Econometric Modelling in Macro-Economics: The Transactions Demand for Money.” In P. Ormerod (ed.),Modelling the Macro-Economy, London: Heinemann, 217–242, (1980).

    Google Scholar 

  • Hendry, D.F., A.R. Pagan, and J.D. Sargan, “Dynamic Specification.” In Z. Griliches and M. Intriligator (eds.),Handbook of Econometrics 2, North Holland Publishing Co., 1023–1100, (1984).

  • Hendry, David F., and Grayham F. Mizon, “Serial Correlation as a Convenient Simplification, Not a Nuisance: A Comment on a Study of the Demand for Money by the Bank of England.”The Economic Journal 88, 549–563, (September 1978).

    Google Scholar 

  • Jain, P., “Analyses of the Distribution of Security Market Model Prediction Errors for Daily Returns Data.”Journal of Accounting Research 24, 76–96, (Spring 1986).

    Google Scholar 

  • Jarque, Carlos M., and Anil K. Bera, “Efficient Tests for Normality, Homoscedasticity and Serial Independence of Regression Residuals.”Economics Letters 6, 255–259, 1980.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jenkinson, T.J., “Testing Neo-Classical Theories of Labor Demand: An Application of Cointegration Techniques.”Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 48, 241–251, (August 1986).

    Google Scholar 

  • Johnston, J.,Econometric Methods, Third Edition. New York: McGraw Hill, 1984.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kubursi, A.A., “The Import Structure of Lebanon: A Quantitative Analysis.”The Journal of Developing Areas, 87–98, (October 1974).

  • Lev, B., “On the Usefulness of Earnings: Lessons and Directions from Two Decades of Empirical Research.”Journal of Accounting Research (Supplement 1989).

  • Madalla, G.S.,Introduction to Econometrics. New York: MacMillan Publishing Company, (1988).

    Google Scholar 

  • Melo, Oscar, and M.G. Vogt, “Determinants of the Demand for Imports of Venezuela.”Journal of Development Economics, 351–358, (April 1984).

  • Nelson, C.R., and C.I. Plosser, “Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series: Some Evidence and Implications.”Journal of Monetary Economics, 139–162, (September 1982).

  • Newey, W.K., and K.D. West, “A Simple, Positive Definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelations Consistent Covariance Matrix.”Econometrica 55, 703–708, (1987).

    Google Scholar 

  • Perron, Pierre, “Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series: Further Evidence from a New Approach.”Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 12, 297–332, (1988).

    Google Scholar 

  • Phillips, P.C.B., “Understanding Spurious Regressions in Econometrics.”Journal of Econometrics, 311–340, (December 1986).

  • Phillips, P.C.B., “Time Series Regression with a Unit Root.”Econometrica 55, 277–301, (March 1987).

    Google Scholar 

  • Phillips, P.C.B., and P. Perron, “Testing for a Unit Root in Times Series Regression.”Biometrika 75, 335–346, (June 1988).

    Google Scholar 

  • Ramsey, J.B., “Tests for Specification Errors in Classical Linear Least Squares Regression Analysis.”Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 31, 351–371 (1969).

    Google Scholar 

  • Said, S.E., and D.A. Dickey, “Testing for Unit Roots in Autoregressive Moving Average Model of Unknown Order.”Biometrika, 599–607, (December 1984).

  • Sargan, J.D., and A. Bhargava, “Testing Residuals from Least Squares Regression for Being Generated by the Gaussian Random Walk.”Econometrica 51, 153–174, (1983).

    Google Scholar 

  • Sargan, J.D., “Wages and Prices in the United Kingdom: A Study in Econometric Methodology.” In P. Hart, G. Mills, and J. Whittaker (eds.)Economic Analysis for National Economic Planning. London: Butterworths, (1964).

    Google Scholar 

  • Sarmad, Khwaja, “The Determinants of Import Demand in Pakistan,”World Development 17, 1619–1625, (October 1989).

    Google Scholar 

  • Schwert, G.W., “Effects of Model Specification on Tests for Unit Roots in Macroeconomic Data.”Journal of Monetary Economics 20, 73–103, (July 1987).

    Google Scholar 

  • Stock, J.H., “Asymptotic Properties of a Least Squares Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors.”Econometrika 55, 1035–1056, (1987).

    Google Scholar 

  • Tegene, A., “On the Effects of Relative Prices and Effective Exchange Rates on Trade Flows of LDCs.”Applied Economics 21, 1447–1463, (November 1989).

    Google Scholar 

  • Thursby, Jerry, and Marie Thursby, “How Reliable Are Simple Single Equation Specifications of Import Demand.”Review of Economics and Statistics, 120–128, (February 1984).

  • Wallis, K.F.,Models of the UK Economy No. 3: A Third Review by the EXRC Macroeconomic Modelling Bureau (edited). New York: Oxford University Press, (1986).

    Google Scholar 

  • Warner, Dennis, and Mordechai Kreinin, “Determinants of International Trade Flows.”Review of Economics and Statistics 65, 96–104, (February 1983).

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Arize, A.C., Ndubizu, G. Cointegration, error correction representation and the import demand function with implications in International Finance and Accounting Research. Rev Quant Finan Acc 2, 359–376 (1992). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00939017

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00939017

Key words

Navigation