Valuation of CCS-ready coal-fired power plants: a multi-dimensional real options approach

Abstract

In this paper, we develop a multi-factor real options model for a two-stage investment problem, where a coal-fired power plant is later retrofitted with carbon capture and storage (CCS). A capture-ready power plant with lower retrofit costs is compared with a conventional one and higher CCS retrofit costs. The stochastic variables considered are the price of electricity, the price of CO₂ permits, the costs of CO₂ capture, transporting and storage (CTS), and CCS retrofit investment costs. Fuel costs are disregarded due to the constant boiler size in the case of a retrofit, resulting in constant fuel consumption but lower electricity output of the retrofitted plant. Two retrofit options that reduce the power plant’s net efficiency from 46% to 30% and 35%, respectively, and an integrated CCS power plant with an efficiency of 38.5% are investigated. In a numerical simulation with realistic parameterization, we find a low probability for a retrofit even after fifteen to twenty years, caused by the high uncertainty and the adverse impact of the electricity price and the CO₂ permit price. This renders the capture-ready option unattractive, and calls for investments in conventional coal-fired power plants with later CCS investments at higher costs than in the case of a capture-ready pre-installation.