Abstract
In this paper, we used the same four-parameter function as Hathaway, Wilson, and Reichmann (1994) proposed and studied the temporal behavior of sunspot cycles 12–22. We used the monthly averages of sunspot areas and their 13-point smoothed data. Our results show the following. (1) The four-parameter function may reduce to a function of only two parameters. (2) As a cycle progresses, the two-parameter function can be accurately determined after 4–4.5 years from the start of the cycle. A good prediction can be made for the timing and size of the sunspot maximum and for the behavior of the remaining 5–10 years of the cycle. (3) The solar activity in the remaining and forthcoming years of cycle 23 is predicted. (4) The smoothed monthly sunspot areas are more suitable to be employed for prediction at the maximum and the descending period of a cycle, whereas at the early period of a cycle the (un-smoothed) monthly data are more suitable.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Denkmayr, K. and Cugnon, P.: 1997, in R. Heckman et al. (eds.), Proceedings of the 5th Solar-Terrestrial Predictions Workshop, Communications Research Laboratory, Japan, p. 103.
Elling, W. and Schwentek, H.: 1992, Solar Phys. 137, 155.
Hanslmeier, A., Denkmayr, K., and Weiss, P.: 1999, Solar Phys. 184, 213.
Hathaway, D. H.: 1998, in K. S. Balasubramaniam, J. W. Harvey, and D. Rabin (eds.), Synoptic Solar Physics, ASP Conf. Series 140, 47.
Hathaway, D. H.: 2002, http://science.nasa.gov/ssl/PAD/solar/Sunspots.htm, 09/08/2002.
Hathaway, D. H. and Harvey, K. L.: 1990, Bull. Amer. Astron. Soc. 22, 873.
Hathaway, D. H., Wilson, R. M., and Reichmann, E. J.: 1993, Bull. Amer. Astron. Soc. 25, 1216.
Hathaway, D. H., Wilson, R. M., and Reichmann, E. J.: 1994, Solar Phys. 151, 177.
Hathaway, D. H., Wilson, R. M., and Reichmann, E. J.: 1999, J. Geophys. Res. 104, 22375.
Hong, Q. F.: 1990, Publ. Yunnan Obs. 36, 9.
Hong, Q. F.: 1991, Publ. Yunnan Obs. 41, 15.
Hong, Q. F.: 1994, Publ. Yunnan Obs. 55, 6.
Li, K. J.: 1999a, Astron. Astrophys. 345, 1006.
Li, K. J.: 1999b, in P. S. Chen (ed.), Observational Astrophysics in Asia and its Future, Proceedings of the 4th East Asian Meeting on Astronomy, Yunnan Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, p. 446.
Li, K. J.: 2001, Publ. Yunnan Obs. 85, 84.
Li, K. J. and Ding, Y. J.: 1992, Acta Astron. Sinica 33, 171.
Li, K. J. and Gu X. M.: 1999, Astron. Astrophys. 348, L59.
Li, K. J, Li, Q. S, Chen, X. K., and Gu, X. M.: 2000, Astrophysics Reports, Publications of the Beijing Astronomical Observatory, No. 35, p. 58.
Li, K. J., Wang, J. X., Liang, H. F., and Gu, X. M.: 2002c, Chinese J. Astron. Astrophys. 2, 66.
Li, K. J., Wang, J. X., Xiong, S. Y., Liang, H. F., Yun, H. S., and Gu, X. M.: 2002a, Astron. Astrophys. 383, 648L.
Li, K. J., Yun, H. S., and Gu, X. M.: 2001, Astron. Astrophys. 368, 285.
Li, K. J., Zhan, L. S., Wang, J. X., Liu, X. H., Yun, H. S., Xiong, S. Y., Liang, H. F., and Zhao, H. Z.: 2002b, Astron. Astrophys. 392, 301.
Nordemann, D. J. R.: 1992, Solar Phys. 141, 199.
Nordemann, D. J. R. and Trivedi, N. B.: 1992, Solar Phys. 142, 411.
The group of computational mathematics, Department of Mathematics, Nanjing University: 1984, Optimization Method, Science Press of China, p. 165.
Wang, J. L., Gong, J. C., Liu, S. Q., Le, G. M., Han, Y. B., and Sun, J. L.: 2002, Chinese J. Astron. Astrophys. 2, 396.
Wilson, R. M.: 1984, NASA TM 86458, Huntsville, Alabama, p. 43.
Wilson, R. M.: 1990, Solar Phys. 125, 133.
Wilson, R. M.: 1992, Solar Phys. 140, 181.
Wilson, R. M.: 1993, J. Geophys. Res. 98A, 1333.
Wilson, R. M., Hathaway, D. H., and Reichmann, E. J.: 1996, J. Geophys. Res. 101, 967.
Wilson, R. M., Hathaway, D. H., and Reichmann, E. J.: 1998, J. Geophys. Res. 103, 6595.
Xu, Z. T. and Qiang, Y. T. (eds.): 1990, in The Ancient Study of Sunspot in China and Its Modern Application, Editorial Department of Nanjing University, p. 122.
Zhan, L. S., Zhao, H. J., and Liang, H. F.: 2003, New Astronomy 8, 5449.
Zhou, S. R., Huang, G., Han, Z. Z., and Fang, C.: 2002, Astrophys. Space Sci. 280, 369.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Lasheng, Z., Li, G., Haijuan, Z. et al. The Shape of Sunspot Cycles Described by Monthly Sunspot Areas. Sol Phys 232, 143–158 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-005-2370-1
Received:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-005-2370-1