Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Weights of evidence method for landslide susceptibility mapping. Prahova Subcarpathians, Romania

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Natural Hazards Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The goal of this paper is to assess the landslide susceptibility of a hilly area in the Subcarpathian sector of the Prahova Valley, using the weight of evidence statistical method. This method aims to reduce the multitude of landslide-related conditions to a pattern of a few discrete predictive variables. The method is based on the decision of which state is more likely to occur grounded on the presence or absence of a predictive variable and the occurrence of an event (e.g., landslide) within a pixel. Based on the chi-square test and the Pearson correlation applied on the data, the selected conditionally independent variables in this study were as follows: slope gradient, slope aspect, and land use. Weights calculated individually for the three themes were added to produce a probability estimate of the area. The predictive power of the map was tested on the basis of a split sample of landslides that were not used in the modeling process. The fact that a great percent of the declivitous surfaces are susceptible to landslides shows the dominant manner of the evolution of the Subcarpathian slopes, the acceleration or deceleration of the process being influenced by the land use.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Agterberg FP, Cheng Q (2002) Conditional independence test for weights of evidence modeling. Nat Resour Res 11(4):249–255

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Agterberg FP, Bonham-Carter GF, Wright DF (1990) Statistical pattern integration for mineral exploration. In: Gaal G, Merriam DF (eds) Computer applications in resource estimation prediction and assessment for metals and petroleum. Pergamon Press, Oxford

    Google Scholar 

  • Aitken CGG, Taroni F (2004) Statistics and the evaluation of evidence for forensic scientists, 2nd Edn. Wiley, Chichester

  • Armaş I, Damian R (2006) Evolutive interpretation of the landslides from the Miron Căproiu Street Scarp (Eternităţii Street–V. Alecsandri Street)—Breaza Town, Revista de Geomorfologie 8:65–72

    Google Scholar 

  • Armaş I, Manea G (2002) Artificializarea peisajului in sectorul subcarpatic al vaii Prahova. Com de Geografie 6:31–38

    Google Scholar 

  • Armaş I, Damian R, Şandric I, Osaci-Costache G (ed) (2003) Vulnerabilitatea versanţilor subcarpatici la alunecări de teren (Valea Prahovei). Fundaţiei România de Mâine, Bucureşti

  • Ayalew L, Yamagishi H, Ugawa N (2004) Landslide susceptibility mapping using GIS-based weighted linear combination, the case in Tsugawa area of Agano River, Niigata Prefecture, Japan. Landslides 1:73–81

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barbieri G, Cambuli P (2009) The weight of evidence statistical method in landslide susceptibility mapping of the Rio Pardu Valley (Sardinia, Italy) 18th world IMACS/MODSIM congress, Cairns, Australia. http://www.mssanz.org.au/modsim09, 13–17 July 2009

  • Barredo JI, Benavides A, Hervas J, van Westen CJ (2000) Comparing heuristic landslide hazard assessment techniques using GIS in the Tirajana basin, Gran Canaria Island, Spain. Int J Appl Earth Obs Geoinf 2:9–23

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bonham-Carter GF (1994) Geographic information systems for geoscientists: Modelling with GIS. Pergamon Press, Ontario, Canada

  • Bonham-Carter GF, Agterberg FP, Wright DF (1989) Weights of evidence modelling: a new approach to mapping mineral potential. In: Agterberg FP, Bonham-Carter GF (eds) Statistical application in the earth sciences. Geological Survey of Canada 89(9):171–183

  • Carrara A, Cardinali M, Detti R, Guzzetti F, Pasqui V, Reichenbach P (1991) GIS techniques and statistical models in evaluating landslide hazard. Earth Surf Proc Land 16(4):427–445

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chung C-JF, Fabbri A (2003) Validation of spatial prediction models for landslide hazard mapping. Nat Hazards 30:451–472

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dai FC, Lee CF, Ngai YY (2002) Landslide risk assessment and management: an overview. Eng Geol 64(1):65–87

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Emmanuel J, Carranza M, Hale M (2000) Geologically constrained probabilistic mapping of gold potential, Baguio district, Philippines. Nat Resour Res 9:237–253

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gee MD (1992) Classification of landslide hazard zonation methods and a test of predictive capability. In: Proceedings of the 6th international symposium on landslides, vol 2. Christchurch, New Zealand, 1992, pp 947–952

  • Glade T, Anderson MG, Crozier MJ (eds) (2005) Landslide hazard and risk. Wiley, Chichester

    Google Scholar 

  • Good IJ (1988) Statistical evidence. In: Kotz S, Johnson NL (eds) Encyclopedia of statistics, vol 8. Wiley, New York, pp 651–655

    Google Scholar 

  • Guzzetti F (2006) Landslide hazard and risk assessment. Ph.D. Thesis, Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelm-Universitaet Bonn, http://hss.ulb.uni-bonn.de/dissonline/mathnatfak/2006/guzzettifausto/index.htm. Last access 15 June 2009

  • Guzzetti F, Carrara A, Cardinali M, Reichenbach P (1999) Landslide hazard evaluation: a review of current techniques and their application in a multi-scale study, Central Italy. Geomorphology 31(1–4):181–216

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hansen DT (1998) Visualizing uncertainty captured from source documents with GRID. In: Proceedings of the eighteenth annual Esri international user conference, San Diego, CA

  • Hedges LV, Olkin I (1985) Statistical methods for meta-analysis. Academic Press, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Highland LM, Bobrowsky P (2008) The landslide handbook—a guide to understanding landslides. US Geological Survey, Reston

    Google Scholar 

  • Komac M (2006) A landslide susceptibility model using the analytical hierarchy process method and multivariate statistics in perialpine Slovenia. Geomorphology 74(1–4):17–28

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kouli M, Loupasakis C, Soupios P, Vallianatos F (2010) Landslide hazard zonation in high risk areas of Rethymno Prefecture, Crete Island, Greece. Nat Hazards 52:599–621

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lee S, Choi J, Min K (2002) Landslide susceptibility analysis and verification using the Bayesian probability model. Env Geol 43:120–131

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lee S, Choi J, Min K (2004) Probabilistic landslide hazard mapping using GIS and remote sensing data at Boun, Korea. Int J Remote Sens 25(11):2037–2052

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Neuhäuser B, Terhorst B (2007) Landslide susceptibility assessment using “weights-of-evidence” applied to a study area at the Jurassic escarpment (SW-Germany). Geomorphology 86:12–24

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nguyen QP, Bui HB (2004) Landslide hazard mapping using Bayesian approach in GIS: case study in YangSan area, Korea. GIS-IDEAS Symposium 2004. Hanoi, Vietnam, pp 125–130

  • Parichi M, Armaş I, Stanila L, Popa R (2006–2007) Studiul pedogeografic al teritoriului Cornu, TERRA XXXVI-XXXVII:59–73

  • Parichi M, Armaş I, Vartolomei FL (2008) Informaţia pedologică în evaluarea susceptibilităţii versanţilor la alunecări de teren. Studiu de caz: oraşul Breaza, Lucrări şi rapoarte de cercetare, D.T.D.G., 2:15–27

  • Parise M (2001) Landslide mapping techniques and their use in the assessment of the landslide hazard. Phys Chem Earth (C) 26:697–703

    Google Scholar 

  • Ranjan KD, Shuichi H, Atsuko N, Minoru Y, Takuro M, Katsuhiro N (2008) GIS-based weights-of-evidence modeling of rainfall-induced landslides in small catchments for landslide susceptibility mapping. Env Geol 54:311–324

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rezaei Moghaddam MH, Khayyam M, Ahmadi M, Farajzadeh M (2007) Mapping susceptibility landslide by using the weight-of-evidence model: a case study in Merek Valley, Iran. J Appl Sci 7(22):3342–3355

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rupke J, Cammeraat E, Seijmonsbergen AC, van Westen CJ (1988) Engineering geomorphology of the Widentobel catchment, Apenzell and Sankt Gallen, Switzerland: a geomorphological inventory system applied to geotechnical appraisal of slope stability. Eng Geol 26:33–68

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • TC I (2001) ILWIS 3.0 academic—user’s guide. ITC, Enschede

    Google Scholar 

  • Van Westen CJ (1993) Application of geographic information systems to landslide hazard zonation. Ph.D. Dissertation, Technical University Delft: ITC-publication number 15, ITC, Enschede, The Netherlands

  • Van Westen CJ (1997) Statistical landslide hazard analysis, ILWIS 2.1 for Windows application guide. ITC Publication, Enschede, pp 73–84

    Google Scholar 

  • Van Westen C, Rengers N, Soeters R (2003) Use of geomorphological information in indirect landslide susceptibility assessment. Nat Hazards 30:399–419

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Van Westen CJ, Van Asch TWJ, Soeters R (2006) Landslide hazard and risk zonation: why is it still so difficult. Bull Eng Geol Environ 65:167–184

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Varnes DJ (1984) Landslide hazard zonation: a review of principles and practice of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization. Natural Hazards, vol 3. UNESCO Press, Paris

    Google Scholar 

  • Vartolomei FL, Armaş I (2010) The intensification of the anthropic pressure through the expansion of the constructed area in the subcarpathian sector of the Prahova Valley/Romania (1800–2008). Forum Geografic IX 9:125–132

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

This research was financed by the Romanian National University Research Council, through the grant 2916/31GR/2007. The author would like to express her thanks to the two anonymous reviewers for all the careful review of the paper and the valuable suggestions made, aiming a better structure of the ideas and analytical steps.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geomorphology, Faculty of Geography, University of Bucharest, Bucharest, Romania

    Iuliana Armaş

Authors
  1. Iuliana Armaş
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Iuliana Armaş.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Armaş, I. Weights of evidence method for landslide susceptibility mapping. Prahova Subcarpathians, Romania. Nat Hazards 60, 937–950 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9879-4

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9879-4

Keywords

Search

Navigation