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Assessing and predicting the spread of non-native raccoons in Germany using hunting bag data and dispersal weighted models

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Abstract

As the second largest cause of biodiversity loss worldwide, there is an urgent need to study the dynamics of biological invasions and identify factors limiting the distribution of invasive alien species. In the present study we analyze national-scale hunting bag data from Germany to predict the dispersal of raccoons in the largest non-native population of the species. Our focus is (1) to document changes in the distribution and abundance of raccoons, (2) to identify the species–environment relationship and predict which areas will be suitable for future colonization and (3) to apply a dispersal model to predict how fast the raccoon will spread to these areas. The increase from about 9000 harvested raccoons in 2000/01 to about 71,000 in 2011/12 reflects the extensive amount of suitable habitat for this omnivorous species in Central Europe. The best model for explaining range expansion in Germany identified coverage of agriculture and fragmentation and coverage of forests as the most important explanatory variables. The range of raccoons (area with harvest index >0.1 per 100 ha) increased from 26,515 km2 in 2001 to 111,630 km2 in 2011, and is predicted to expand to 252,940 km2 by 2061, 71 % of the area of Germany. This vast area encompasses strategically important areas for conservation biology, such as wetlands with endangered native terrapins. The combination of merging of separated introduced populations and accelerating population growth highlights the potential for future impacts of raccoons on native communities, ecosystems and economic life in Germany and Central Europe.

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Acknowledgments

The work is funded by the German Science Foundation (DFG, GRK 1319) as part of the interdisciplinary graduate school ‘Cooperation of Science and Jurisprudence in Improving Development and Use of Standards for Environmental Protection–Strategies for Risk Assessment and Management’. We want further thank the German authorities for providing arranged data of their respective administrative district and their attendance for demands. We thank two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments on this manuscript.

Author contributions

Marietta L. Fischer designed the study. Marietta L. Fischer, Martin J. P. Sullivan and José Guerrero-Casado analysed the data. Marietta L. Fischer, Grit Greiser, Mike Heddergott, Ulf Hohmann, Oliver Keuling, Johannes Lang, Ina Martin, Frank-Uwe Michler, Armin Winter and Roland Klein collected the data. Marietta L. Fischer and Martin J. P. Sullivan wrote the paper, with contributions from the other authors. Roland Klein supervised Marietta L. Fischer.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Biogeography, Trier University, 54286, Trier, Germany

    Marietta L. Fischer & Roland Klein

  2. School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK

    Martin J. P. Sullivan

  3. School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK

    Martin J. P. Sullivan

  4. Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institute, Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries, Alfred-Möller-Straße 1, 16225, Eberswalde, Germany

    Grit Greiser & Ina Martin

  5. Department of Zoology, University of Córdoba, Campus de Rabanales, 14071, Córdoba, Spain

    José Guerrero-Casado

  6. Musée National d’Histoire Naturelle, 2160, Luxembourg, Luxembourg

    Mike Heddergott

  7. Department of Wildlife Ecology, Research Institute for Forest Ecology and Forestry Rhineland-Palatinate, Schloss, 67705, Trippstadt, Germany

    Ulf Hohmann

  8. Institute for Terrestrial and Aquatic Wildlife Research, University for Veterinary Medicine Foundation, Hannover Bischofsholer Damm 15, 30173, Hannover, Germany

    Oliver Keuling

  9. Institute of Animal Ecology and Nature Education, Altes Forsthaus, Hauptstr. 30, 35321, Gonterskirchen, Germany

    Johannes Lang

  10. Institute of Forest Botany and Forest Zoology, Dresden University of Technology, Pienner Str. 7, 01737, Tharandt, Germany

    Frank-Uwe Michler

  11. German Hunting Association (Deutscher Jagdverband e.V.), Friedrichstraße 185/186, 10117, Berlin, Germany

    Armin Winter

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  1. Marietta L. Fischer
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  8. Johannes Lang
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  9. Ina Martin
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  11. Armin Winter
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  12. Roland Klein
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Correspondence to Marietta L. Fischer.

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Fischer, M.L., Sullivan, M.J.P., Greiser, G. et al. Assessing and predicting the spread of non-native raccoons in Germany using hunting bag data and dispersal weighted models. Biol Invasions 18, 57–71 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-015-0989-x

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