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Tephra fallout hazard assessment at the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy)

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Abstract

Tephra fallout associated with renewal of volcanism at the Campi Flegrei caldera is a serious threat to the Neapolitan area. In order to assess the hazards related with tephra loading, we have considered three different eruption scenarios representative of past activity: a high-magnitude event similar to the 4.1 ka Agnano-Monte Spina eruption, a medium-magnitude event, similar to the ∼3.8 ka Astroni 6 eruption, and a low-magnitude event similar to the Averno 2 eruption. The fallout deposits were reconstructed using the HAZMAP computational model, which is based on a semi-analytical solution of the two-dimensional advection–diffusion–sedimentation equation for volcanic tephra. The input parameters into the model, such as total erupted mass, eruption column height, and bulk grain-size and components distribution, were obtained by best-fitting field data. We carried out tens of thousands simulations using a statistical set of wind profiles, obtained from NOAA re-analysis. Probability maps, relative to the considered scenarios, were constructed for several tephra loads, such as 200, 300 and 400 kg/m2. These provide a hazard assessment for roof collapses due to tephra loading that can be used for risk mitigation plans in the area.

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Acknowledgements

P. Belviso, A. Carandente and M. Tesauro are warmly thanked for the help given in the laboratory work. The research was supported by the Italian Department for Civil Protection within the 2000–2003 and 2004–2006 INGV-DPC Projects. We are also grateful to R. Cioni, C. Hickson and an anonymous referee for their constructive reviews.

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  1. Osservatorio Vesuviano, Napoli, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via Diocleziano 328, 80124, Naples, Italy

    A. Costa, F. Dell’Erba, M. A. Di Vito, R. Isaia, G. Macedonio, G. Orsi & T. Pfeiffer

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  1. A. Costa
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  2. F. Dell’Erba
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  3. M. A. Di Vito
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  4. R. Isaia
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  5. G. Macedonio
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  6. G. Orsi
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  7. T. Pfeiffer
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Correspondence to A. Costa.

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Costa, A., Dell’Erba, F., Di Vito, M.A. et al. Tephra fallout hazard assessment at the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy). Bull Volcanol 71, 259–273 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-008-0220-3

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