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Numerical modeling and hazard implications of landslides at the Ardillas Volcanic Dome (Tacaná Volcanic Complex, Mexico-Guatemala)

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Abstract

The upper flanks of stratovolcanoes usually exhibit steep slopes affected by fumarolic or hydrothermal activity. These conditions commonly promote rock instability, triggering rock avalanches and landslides. Quiescent and active stratovolcanoes transected by fractures and faults are further susceptible to these phenomenon, especially when they are located in tropical regions, where heavy rainfall regimes tend to saturate the volcanic material and promotes landslides. One example of such volcanoes is the Tacaná Volcanic Complex located at the Mexico-Guatemala border. It consists of three NE-SW aligned volcanoes (Chichuj, Tacaná, and San Antonio) and the Ardillas Dome. Just recently, the eastern portions of Ardillas Dome and San Antonio volcano have been affected by rockfalls and landslides toward the southern flank of the Complex, particularly to the Maxaum ravine. Field surveys showed tension fractures, landslide scars, fumaroles and volcanic vents along an important NE-SW fissure that has been growing between these two volcanic structures. To assess a future landslide within this zone, we delineate an area prone to collapse, according to the structural and morphometric analysis. We simulate a set of five gravitational flows of different volumes (1 × 105 to 2.5 × 107 m3) with the numerical code Titan2D varying the source area of the landslides. The simulated landslides showed that independently of the volume involved or source point of the landslide, it will be channeled within the Maxaum ravine and travel a maximum distance of up to 7 km from the source. The simulated flows moved at maximum velocities of ~ 41 m/s and were dispersed over a surface area of ~ 17 km2 with variable thicknesses (0.5–7 m at the affected villages). The most voluminous landslides (2.5 × 107 m3) will impact at least eight villages inhabited by ~ 2000 people on the southern flanks of the Complex. By analyzing the potential building damage caused by the largest simulated landslide (intensity index, IDF), two localities would have major structural damages in their dwellings and two would be completely destroyed; meanwhile, another three villages would suffer minor structural damages and one would experience minor sedimentation. Although the outcomes described here represent the first evaluation of small-volume landslide hazards at the Complex, specifically at the Ardillas Dome, our maps are useful tools for the preparedness for the Civil Protection authorities and the population at risk. Thus, a detailed landslide hazard assessment is needed, taking into account the present state of the Tacaná Volcanic Complex as well as the geologic and climatologic setting of the volcano, and a full stability analysis.

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Availability of data and materials

The data obtained from field campaigns, as well as the complete datasets used for simulations, can be shared if requested. Within the manuscript, the relevant values used for numerical modelling are described in the tables, and the data referenced in some of the sections could be consulted in the original papers referenced.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología (CONACyT) project PN522 and Dirección General de Asuntos del Personal Académico (DGAPA) project IN112720 to J.L. Macías. The authors thank the head of the Laboratorio Interinstitucional de Análisis de Riesgos, Guillermo Cisneros for his technical support on the cartographic material. We thank Néstor Fitz, for the numerical simulations performed to calibrate the model. We also thank students and colleagues whom shared fieldwork with us during this project and through the years. The English language was revised by Grant George Buffett (http://www.terranova.barcelona). Finally, we are very thankful to the anonymous reviewers who revised this paper with their objective suggestions because their observations enhanced the quality of this work.

Funding

This work was supported by the Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología (CONACyT) project PN522 and Dirección General de Asuntos del Personal Académico (DGAPA) project IN112720 to J.L. Macías.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Escuela Nacional de Estudios Superiores UNAM-Unidad Juriquilla, Campus UNAM Blvd., 3001, Juriquilla, Querétaro, Mexico

    R. Vázquez

  2. Instituto de Geofísica UNAM-Unidad Morelia, Antigua Carretera a Pátzcuaro, Ex – Hacienda San José de la Huerta No. 8701, 58190, Morelia, Michoacán, Mexico

    J. L. Macías

  3. Facultad de Filosofía y Letras, UNAM-Ciudad Universitaria, 04510, Ciudad de Mexico, Mexico

    J. Alcalá-Reygosa

  4. Instituto de Geología UNAM- Ciudad Universitaria, Circuito de la Investigación Científica, 04510, Ciudad de Mexico, Mexico

    J. L. Arce

  5. Instituto de Investigaciones en Ciencias de la Tierra, Universidad Michoacana San Nicolás de Hidalgo- ENES Unidad Morelia, Ciudad Universitaria, 58030, Morelia, Michoacán, Mexico

    A. Jiménez-Haro

  6. Escuela Nacional de Estudios Superiores-UNAM-Unidad Morelia, Antigua Carretera a Pátzcuaro, Ex – Hacienda San José de la Huerta No. 8701, 58190, Morelia, Michoacán, Mexico

    S. Fernández

  7. CONACYT-Instituto de Geofísica-UNAM, Unidad Morelia, Antigua Carretera a Pátzcuaro, No. 8701, Ex-Hacienda de San José de La Huerta, 58190, Morelia, Michoacán, Mexico

    T. Carlón

  8. Instituto de Geología, Universidad Autónoma de San Luis Potosí, Dr. M. Nava, Zona Universitaria, 78240, San Luis Potosí, Mexico

    R. Saucedo

  9. Instituto Politécnico Nacional-CIIEMAD, Miguel Othón de Mendizabal, 07320, Ciudad de Mexico, Mexico

    J. M. Sánchez-Núñez

Authors
  1. R. Vázquez
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  2. J. L. Macías
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  3. J. Alcalá-Reygosa
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  4. J. L. Arce
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  5. A. Jiménez-Haro
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  6. S. Fernández
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  7. T. Carlón
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  8. R. Saucedo
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  9. J. M. Sánchez-Núñez
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Contributions

All authors contributed to the study conception and design of this manuscript. Field work and data collection were performed by all authors. The sampling and 36Cl cosmic-ray exposure analysis was performed by Jesús Alcalá-Reygosa and José Luis Arce. The geological information was described by Ricardo Saucedo. The design of thematic maps was performed by Salvador Fernández. The landslide modeling was performed by Rosario Vázquez. Structural analysis was managed by Adrián Jiménez-Haro. Bioclimatic and morphometric analysis were performed by Teodoro Carlón, Salvador Fernández, Jesús Manuel Sánchez-Núñez and Rosario Vázquez. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Rosario Vázquez and all authors commented on posterior versions of the manuscript, after the first draft. The second draft of the manuscript was corrected and supervised by José Luis Macías, José Luis Arce and Jesús Alcalá-Reygosa. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to R. Vázquez.

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Vázquez, R., Macías, J.L., Alcalá-Reygosa, J. et al. Numerical modeling and hazard implications of landslides at the Ardillas Volcanic Dome (Tacaná Volcanic Complex, Mexico-Guatemala). Nat Hazards 113, 1305–1333 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05348-1

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