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Predictability of global monsoon rainfall in NCEP CFSv2

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Abstract

This study evaluates the actual and potential prediction skill of the global monsoon rainfall using hindcast simulations by NCEP CFSv2 at zero to three lead forecast months (L0–L3). It is shown that the model has moderate skill in global monsoon rainfall (GMR) prediction, where the boreal summer monsoon rainfall forecast is more skillful than that of the austral summer. In general, the prediction skill of the GMR (actual and potential) increases with the decrease in lead forecast time, which is true for the all major regional monsoons, except the Australian monsoon. Over the Australian monsoon region, both actual and potential prediction skills in rainfall increase with increase in lead forecast. The forecast skill of tropical SST during austral summer is a maximum at 3 months lead forecast (i.e. July initial conditions) and that is associated with spring predictability barrier. Using partial least square (PLS) regression method, it is shown that the major predictor (first latent vector) of the boreal and austral summer monsoon rainfall variability is ENSO, and the influence of ENSO on rainfall variability is much stronger in the model as compared to the observation. The second PLS regression mode is associated with the non-ENSO variability like tropical Atlantic, Indian, subtropical northwest Pacific Ocean variability, midlatitude interactions etc. However, the model has very poor skill in reproducing the second mode, particularly during the boreal summer monsoon season. It is also shown that a significant part of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability is controlled by other than ENSO variability and the model has limited success in capturing that.

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Acknowledgments

We thank the Director, IITM for the all support to carry out this work. We thank NCEP for providing CFS hindcast data and H. Abdi for providing code of PLS regression. We also thank John M. Wallace, Brian V. Smoliak for scientific discussion and providing snowpack data for code verification. We also thank two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments and suggestions, which has improved the manuscript. Freeware GrADS is used extensively in this study.

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  1. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, 411008, India

    Subodh Kumar Saha, K. Sujith, Samir Pokhrel, Hemantkumar S. Chaudhari & Anupam Hazra

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  1. Subodh Kumar Saha
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  2. K. Sujith
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  3. Samir Pokhrel
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Saha, S.K., Sujith, K., Pokhrel, S. et al. Predictability of global monsoon rainfall in NCEP CFSv2. Clim Dyn 47, 1693–1715 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2928-z

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