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Current status and predicted impact of climate change on forest production and biogeochemistry in the temperate oceanic European zone: review and prospects for Belgium as a case study

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Journal of Forest Research

Abstract

Reviews of the current statuses of forests and the impacts of climate change on forests exist at the (sub)continental scale, but rarely at country and regional levels, meaning that information on causal factors, their impacts, and specific regional properties is often inconsistent and lacking in depth. Here, we present the current status of forest production and biogeochemistry and the expected impacts of climate change on them for Belgium. This work represents a case study for the temperate oceanic zone, the most important bioclimatic zone in northwestern Europe. Results show that Belgian forests are mainly young, very productive, and have a high C-sequestration capacity. Major negative anomalies in tree vitality were observed in the 1990s and—as result of disturbances—in the last decade for sensitive species as poplars and European beech. The most severe disturbances were caused by extreme climatic events, directly (e.g. storms) or indirectly (e.g. insect outbreaks after a mild autumn with an early/severe frost). Because of atmospheric deposition and soil fertilization (due to the previous use of the land), nutrient stocks of Belgian forests are likely to sustain the future enhancement in productivity which is expected to follow the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration that will occur in years to come. However, in the long term, such (enhanced) forest production is likely to be limited by nutrient deficiencies at poor sites and by drought for sensitive species such as beech and (particularly) Norway spruce. Drought conditions will likely increase in the future, but adverse effects are expected on a relatively limited number of tree species. The potential impacts of windstorms, insects and fungi should be carefully investigated, whereas fires are less of a concern.

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Notes

  1. The relative extractable water (REW) is calculated as: (θ − θ m)/(θ F − θ m), where θ is the volumetric water content, θ m is the volumetric minimum water content, and θ F is the water content at field capacity. A REW of <0.4 indicates drought stress; a REW of <0.2 indicates severe drought stress (Bréda et al. 2006).

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Acknowledgments

This work was funded by the agency for Innovation by Science and Technology (IWT) of the Flemish Government through the SimForTree project (contract number 060032) and supported by the COST Action ECHOES FP0703. We thank the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium (RMI) for providing meteorological and phenological data, the Research Institute for Nature and Forest (INBO) of the Flemish Government and Geert Sioen (INBO) for providing published datasets on tree vitality (ICP plot level I monitoring), Dries Vansteenkiste (Ghent University) for providing unpublished dendrochronological datasets, and Louis Gilbert for the important long-term phenological observations at Blanmont.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Research Group of Plant and Vegetation Ecology, Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Universiteitsplein 1, 2610, Wilrijk, Belgium

    Matteo Campioli

  2. Earth and Life Institute, Université catholique de Louvain, Croix du Sud 2/9, 1348, Louvain, Belgium

    Caroline Vincke, Mathieu Jonard & Quentin Ponette

  3. Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200E, Box 2411, 3001, Louvain, Belgium

    Vincent Kint

  4. Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Avenue Circulaire 3, 1780, Brussels, Belgium

    Gaston Demarée

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  1. Matteo Campioli
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  2. Caroline Vincke
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  3. Mathieu Jonard
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  4. Vincent Kint
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  6. Quentin Ponette
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Correspondence to Matteo Campioli.

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Campioli, M., Vincke, C., Jonard, M. et al. Current status and predicted impact of climate change on forest production and biogeochemistry in the temperate oceanic European zone: review and prospects for Belgium as a case study. J For Res 17, 1–18 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10310-011-0255-8

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