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European larch phenology in the Alps: can we grasp the role of ecological factors by combining field observations and inverse modelling?

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Abstract

Vegetation phenology is strongly influenced by climatic factors. Climate changes may cause phenological variations, especially in the Alps which are considered to be extremely vulnerable to global warming. The main goal of our study is to analyze European larch (Larix decidua Mill.) phenology in alpine environments and the role of the ecological factors involved, using an integrated approach based on accurate field observations and modelling techniques. We present 2 years of field-collected larch phenological data, obtained following a specifically designed observation protocol. We observed that both spring and autumn larch phenology is strongly influenced by altitude. We propose an approach for the optimization of a spring warming model (SW) and the growing season index model (GSI) consisting of a model inversion technique, based on simulated look-up tables (LUTs), that provides robust parameter estimates. The optimized models showed excellent agreement between modelled and observed data: the SW model predicts the beginning of the growing season (BGS) with a mean RMSE of 4 days, while GSI gives a prediction of the growing season length (LGS) with a RMSE of 5 days. Moreover, we showed that the original GSI parameters led to consistent errors, while the optimized ones significantly increased model accuracy. Finally, we used GSI to investigate interactions of ecological factors during springtime development and autumn senescence. We found that temperature is the most effective factor during spring recovery while photoperiod plays an important role during autumn senescence: photoperiod shows a contrasting effect with altitude decreasing its influence with increasing altitude.

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Notes

  1. http://www.dow.wau.nl/msa/epn/;

  2. http://www.dow.wau.nl/msa/gpm/;

  3. http://www.crea.hautesavoie.net/phenoclim/index.php

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Acknowledgements

This research was supported by the ARPA Valle d'Aosta REPHLEX (Remote Sensing of Phenology Larix Experiment) project. We thank L. Mercalli (SMI) for his suggestions and for providing meteorological data. We further thank A. Mammoliti Mochet and L. Cerise (ARPA VdA) M. Tardivo, E. Matta (UNIMIB) M. Brunod (UNITO) R. Accorsini and SSK group for their support in field surveys. Finally, we thank G. Agnesod (ARPA VdA) and M. Reichstein for fruitful discussions. We are also grateful to anonymous reviewers for their helpful and constructive comments.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Remote Sensing of Environmental Dynamics Laboratory, Dip. Scienze dell’Ambiente e del Territorio, Università Milano-Bicocca, Piazza della Scienza 1, 20126, Milano, Italy

    M. Migliavacca, R. Colombo, L. Busetto, M. Galvagno, M. Meroni & M. Rossini

  2. Agenzia Regionale per la Protezione dell’Ambiente della Valle d’Aosta, Sez. Agenti Fisici, Aosta, Italy

    E. Cremonese, M. Galvagno, L. Ganis & U. Morra di Cella

  3. Dep. Biologia Vegetale, Università degli Studi di Torino, Torino, Italy

    E. Pari & C. Siniscalco

  4. CNR-IIA Institute on Atmospheric Pollution, Roma, Italy

    L. Busetto

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  1. M. Migliavacca
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Correspondence to M. Migliavacca.

Appendix

Appendix

Symbols and abbreviations

AP:

Autumn phase

AWS:

Automatic weather station

BGS :

Beginning of growing season (day)

CRM:

Coefficient of residual mass

DD:

Degree days (°C-day)

DOY:

Day of the year

DOY0 :

Starting date for counting, set to 1 January

DOYbb :

Day of year of budburst

EF:

Modelling efficiency

EGS :

End of growing season (day)

F*:

Critical forcing units (°C-day)

GSI:

Growing season index

iGSI:

Daily indicator of the relative constraint of foliar development

iPhoto:

Daily indicator of photoperiod

iTMin :

Daily indicator of minimum temperature

iVPD:

Daily indicator of vapour pressure deficit

LGS :

Length of growing season (day)

LUT:

Look-up table

MAE:

Mean absolute error

mod:

Modelled data

obs:

Observed data

Photoi :

Daily photoperiod (h)

PhotoMax :

Upper minimum photoperiod threshold (h)

PhotoMin :

Lower minimum photoperiod threshold (h)

q :

Number of extraction from LUT

θ:

Vector of parameters

θ opt :

Optimized parameters vector

θ opt,q :

Optimized parameters vector from the q LUT extractions

RMSE:

Root mean square error

SP:

Springtime phase

SW:

Spring warming

Tair :

Daily mean air temperature (°C)

Tb :

Base air temperature (°C)

thresh :

Threshold for the definition of BGS and EGS in the GSI model

TMin :

Daily minimum air temperature (°C)

TMMax :

Upper minimum temperature threshold (°C)

TMMin :

Lower minimum temperature threshold (°C)

VPD:

Vapour pressure deficit (Pa)

VPDi :

Daily vapour pressure deficit [Pa]

VPDMax :

Upper VPD threshold (Pa)

VPDMin :

Lower VPD threshold (Pa)

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Migliavacca, M., Cremonese, E., Colombo, R. et al. European larch phenology in the Alps: can we grasp the role of ecological factors by combining field observations and inverse modelling?. Int J Biometeorol 52, 587–605 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-008-0152-9

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