Abstract
This study evaluates the performance of five Regional Climate Models (RCMs) (CCLM4-8-17, HIRHAM5, RACMO22T, RCA4 and REMO2009) driven by a Global Climate Model) (GCM) (ICHEC-EC-EARTH) for simulating rainfall and temperature in the Guder sub-basin of the Upper Blue Nile Basin in Ethiopia. The RCMs data were downloaded from the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) website and observational data were obtained from the National Meteorology Agency (NMA). The RCMs were evaluated against observed data on the basis of how they produce the monthly average, wet season (June-September), and annual average rainfall and temperature during the 1986–2005 periods. The result showed that in most stations RCA4, HIRHAM5, and CCLM4-8-17 models overestimate the rainfall with a minimum bias of 0.01 mm at Jeldu station and a maximum bias of 6.48 mm at Ambo station. On the other hand, all the models underestimate the maximum temperature between 0.46 and 10.04 °C and overestimate the minimum temperature in most climate stations within the ranges 0.14 °C–5.03 °C. In most of the statistical metrics, RACMO22T was superior while the RCA4 and HIRHAM5 RCMs models show the poorest performance in terms of capturing monthly and annual cycles of rainfall. But, for temperature simulation, HIRHAM5 simulation was relatively the best in simulating both the annual and wet season maximum and minimum temperature over the Guder sub-basin. This finding indicated that the best model for rainfall simulation had a poor performance for temperature. Therefore, this justifies the need for RCMs model evaluation in order to choose the most realistic model for a localized climate impact study.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Abbasian M, Moghim S, Abrishamchi A (2019) Performance of the general circulation models in simulating temperature and precipitation over Iran. Theoret Appl Climatol 135(3):1465–1483. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2456-y
Ahmadalipour A, Moradkhani H, Demirel MC (2017) A comparative assessment of projected meteorological and hydrological droughts: elucidating the role of temperature. J Hydrol 553:785–797. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.08.047
Akinsanola AA, Ogunjobi KO (2017) Evaluation of present-day rainfall simulations over West Africa in CORDEX regional climate models. Environ Earth Sci 76(10):1–20. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-017-6691-9
Akinsanola AA, Ogunjobi KO, Gbode IE, Ajayi VO (2015) Assessing the capabilities of three regional climate models over CORDEX Africa in simulating West African summer monsoon precipitation. Adv Meteorol. https://doi.org/10.1155/2015/935431
Alemseged TH, Tom R (2015) Evaluation of regional climate model simulations of rainfall over the Upper Blue Nile basin. Atmos Res 161:57–64. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.03.013
Almazroui M, Saeed F, Saeed S, Nazrul Islam M, Ismail M, Klutse NAB, Siddiqui MH (2020) Projected change in temperature and precipitation over Africa from CMIP6. Earth Syst Environ 4(3):455–475. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-020-00161-x
Bayissa Y, Melesse A, Bhat M, Tadesse T, Shiferaw A (2021) Evaluation of regional climate models (RCMs) using precipitation and temperature-based climatic indices: a case study of Florida. USA Water 13(17):2411. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13172411
Belay H (2011) Evaluation of Climate Change impacts on hydrology on selected catchments of Abbay Basin (Doctoral dissertation, MSc Thesis, Institute of Technology, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia)
Belda M, Holtanová E, Halenka T, Kalvová J, Hlávka Z (2015) Evaluation of CMIP5 present climate simulations using the Köppen-Trewartha climate classification. Climate Res 64(3):201–212. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01316
Bhattacharjee P, Zaitchi B (2015) Perspectives on CMIP5 model performance in the Nile River headwaters regions. Int J Climatol 35:4262–4275. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4284
Buuren S, Groothuis-Oudshoorn K, Robitzsch A, Vink G, Doove L, Jolani S (2015) Package ‘mice’ Version 2.25; Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equations
Dessai S, Lu X, Hulme M (2005) Limited sensitivity analysis of regional climate change probabilities for the 21st century. J Geophys Research: Atmos. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD005919
Dibaba WT, Miegel K, Demissie TA (2019) Evaluation of the CORDEX regional climate models performance in simulating climate conditions of two catchments in Upper Blue Nile Basin. Dyn Atmos Oceans 87:101104. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2019.101104
Diro GT, Grimes DIF, Black E (2011) Teleconnections between ethiopian summer rainfall and sea surface temperature: part I—observation and modelling. Clim Dyn 37(1):103–119. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0837-8
Dosio A, Panitz H, Schubert-Frisius M, Lüthi D (2015) Dynamical downscaling of CMIP5 global circulation models over CORDEX Africa with COSMO CLM: evaluation over the present climate and analysis of the added value. Clim Dyn 44(9):2637–2661. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2262-x
Edwards PN (2011) History of climate modeling. Wiley Interdiscip Rev 2(1):128–139. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.95
Endris HS, Omondi P, Jain S, Lennard C, Hewitson B, Chang’a L, Awange JL, Dosio A, Ketiem P, Nikulin G, Panitz HJ (2013) Assessment of the performance of CORDEX regional climate models in simulating east african rainfall. J Clim 26(21):8453–8475. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00708.1
Feser F, Rockel B, von Storch H, Winterfeldt J, Zahn M (2011) Regional climate models add value to global model data: a review and selected examples. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 92(9):1181–1192. https://doi.org/10.1175/2011BAMS3061.1
Flato G, Marotzke J, Abiodun B, Braconnot P, Chou SC, Collins W, Cox P, Driouech F, Emori S, Eyring V, Forest C, Gleckler P, Guilyardi E, Jakob C, Kattsov V, Reason C, Rummukainen M (2013) Evaluation of Climate Models. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Al SK (eds) Climate Change The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assess- ment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Tebaldi C (2007) Linking climate change modeling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modeling. Int J Climatol 27:1547–1578. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1556
Giorgi F, Gutowski WJ (2015) Regional dynamical downscaling and the CORDEX initiative. Annu Rev Environ Resour 40:467–490. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-102014-021217
Hartkamp AD, De Beurs K, Stein A, White JW (1999) Interpolation techniques for climate variables. Cimmyt
Hernández-Díaz L, Laprise R, Sushama L, Martynov A, Winger K, Dugas B (2013) Climate simulation over CORDEX Africa domain using the fifth-generation canadian Regional climate model (CRCM5). Clim Dyn 40(5):1415–1433. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1387-z
Ilori OW, Balogun IA (2022) Evaluating the performance of new CORDEX-Africa regional climate models in simulating west african rainfall. Model Earth Syst Environ 8:665–688. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-021-01084-w
IPCC (2013) Climate Change, The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change 1535
Jury MR (2015) Statistical evaluation of CMIP5 climate change model simulations for the ethiopian highlands. Int J Climatol 35(1):37–44. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3960
Kharin VV, Zwiers FW, Zhang X, Hegerl GC (2007) Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the IPCC ensemble of global coupled model simulations. J Clim 20:1419–1444. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4066.1
Kim J, Waliser DE, Mattmann CA, Goodale CE, Hart AF, Zimdars PA, Crichton DJ, Jones C, Nikulin G, Hewitson B, Jack C, Lennard C, Favre A (2014) Evaluation of the CORDEX Africa multi-RCM hindcast: systematic model errors. Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1751-7
Klutse NAB, Quagraine KA, Nkrumah F et al (2021) The climatic analysis of summer monsoon extreme precipitation events over west Africa in CMIP6 simulations. Earth Syst Environ 5, 25–41. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-021-00203-y
Landgren OA, Haugen JE, Førland EJ (2014) Evaluation of regional climate model temperature and precipitation outputs over Scandinavia. Climate Res 60(3):249–264. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01240
Laprise R, Hernández-Díaz L, Tete K, Sushama L, Šeparović L, Martynov A, Valin M (2013) Climate projections over CORDEX Africa domain using the fifth-generation canadian regional climate model (CRCM5). Clim Dyn 41(11):3219–3246. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1651-2
Libanda B (2022) Performance assessment of CORDEX regional climate models in wind speed simulations over Zambia. Model Earth Syst Environ. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-022-01504-5
Loukas A, Vasiliades L, Tzabiras J (2008) Climate change effects on drought severity. Adv Geosci 17:23–29. https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-17-23-2008
Luhunga P, Botai J, Kahimba F (2016) Evaluation of the performance of CORDEX regional climate models in simulating present climate conditions of Tanzania. J South Hemisphere Earth Syst Sci 66(1):32–54. https://doi.org/10.1071/ES16005
Ly S, Charles C, Degre A (2011) Geostatistical interpolation of daily rainfall at catchment scale: the use of several variogram models in the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments Belgium. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 15(7):2259–2274. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2259-2011
Mutayoba E, Kashaigili J (2017) Evaluation for the performance of the CORDEX regional climate models in simulating rainfall characteristics over Mbarali River catchment in the Rufiji Basin, Tanzania. J Geosci Environ Prot 5:139–151. https://doi.org/10.4236/gep.2017.54011
Nasrollahi N, AghaKouchak A, Cheng L, Damberg L, Phillips TJ, Miao C, Sorooshian S (2015) How well do CMIP5 climate simulations replicate historical trends and patterns of meteorological droughts? Water Resour Res 51(4):2847–2864. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR016318
Nikulin G et al (2012) Precipitation climatology in an ensemble of CORDEX-Africa regional climate simulations. J Clim 25:6057–6078. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00375.1
Olusegun CF, Awe O, Ijila I, Ajanaku O, Ogunjo S (2022) Evaluation of dry and wet spell events over West Africa using CORDEX-CORE regional climate models. Model Earth Syst Environ 8:4923–4937. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-022-01423-5
Perez J, Menendez M, Mendez FJ, Losada IJ (2014) Evaluating the performance of CMIP3 and CMIP5 global climate models over the north-east Atlantic region. Clim Dyn 43(9):2663–2680. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2078-8
R Development Core Team (2015) R A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna
Randall DA, Wood RA, Bony S, Colman R, Fichefet T, Fyfe J, Kattsov V, Pitman A, Shukla J, Srinivasan J, Stouffer RJ, Sumi A, Taylor KE, Manzini E, Matsuno T, McAvaney B, Wood R, Bony S, Colman R, Fichefet T, Fyfe J, Kattsov V, Pitman A, Shukla J, Srinivasan J, Stouffer R, Sumi A, and Taylor KE (2007) Cilmate Models and Their Evaluation. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marqui M (eds) Climate Change. The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, vol. 323, 589–662. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2007.06.045
Reda DT, Engida AN, Asfaw DH, Hamdi R (2015) Analysis of precipitation based on ensembles of regional climate model simulations and observational databases over Ethiopia for the period 1989–2008. Int J Climatol 35(6):948–971. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4029
Reifen C, Toumi R (2009) Climate projections: past performance no guarantee of future skill? Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL038082
Segele Z (2008) January Wavelet-Based Monthly-to-Seasonal Rainfall Predictions for Ethiopia. In the 20th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Segele ZT, Leslie LM, Lamb PJ (2009a) Evaluation and adaptation of a regional climate model for the Horn of Africa: rainfall climatology and interannual variability. Int J Climatol 29(1):47–65. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1681
Shiru MS, Chung ES (2021) Performance evaluation of CMIP6 global climate models for selecting models for climate projection over Nigeria. Theor Appl Climatol 146:599–615. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03746-2
Taylor KE (2001) Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram. J Geophys Res 106(D7):7183–7192. https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JD900719
Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93:485–498. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1
Teutschbein C, Seibert J (2012) Bias correction of regional climate model simulations for hydrological climate change impact studies: review and evaluation of different methods. J Hydrol 456457:12–29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.05.052
Turrado C, López M, Lasheras F, Gómez B, Rollé J, Juez F (2014) Missing data imputation of solar radiation data under different atmospheric conditions. Sensors 14:20382–20399. https://doi.org/10.3390/s141120382
Van Vooren S, Van Schaeybroeck B, Nyssen J, Van Ginderachter M, Termonia P (2019) Evaluation of CORDEX rainfall in northwest Ethiopia: sensitivity to the model representation of the orography. Int J Climatol 39(5):2569–2586. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5971
Varis O, Kajander T, Lemmelä R (2004) Climate and water: from climate models to water resources management and vice versa. Clim Change 66:321–344. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:CLIM.0000044622.42657.d4
WMO (World Meteorological Organization) (2009) Guidelines on: analysis of extremes in a changing climate in support of informed decisions for adaptation. Climate Data and Monitoring WCDMP-No. 72
Worku G, Teferi E, Bantider A, Dile YT, Taye MT (2018) Evaluation of regional climate models performance in simulating rainfall climatology of Jemma sub-basin, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia. Dyn Atmos Oceans 83:53–63. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2018.06.002
Zaroug MA, Eltahir EA, Giorgi F (2014) Droughts and floods over the upper catchment of the Blue Nile and their connections to the timing of El Niño and La Niña events. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 18(3):1239–1249. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1239-2014
Zhang X, Yang F (2018) RClimDex (v1.9) User Guide. Climate Research Branch Environment Canada, Downsview (Ontario, Canada)
Zhang X, Feng Y, Chan R, (2004) RClimDex (1.0) User Guide. Climate Research Division Environment Canada, Downsview (Ontario, Canada)
Acknowledgements
This research has received financial support from Haramaya University, Africa Center of Excellence (ACE) for Climate-Smart Agriculture and Biodiversity Conservation in collaboration with the World Bank Group and the author is thankful for that. We thank the Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency and the world climate Research Program (WCRP) for providing the required data for this study. We also would like to thank Kotebe University of Education for their immense support throughout the research work and we thank the anonymous reviewers for their constructive and useful comments.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
On behalf of all authors, the corresponding author states that there is no conflict of interest.
Additional information
Publisher’s Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Demessie, S.F., Dile, Y.T., Bedadi, B. et al. “Evaluations of regional climate models for simulating precipitation and temperature over the Guder sub-basin of Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia”. Model. Earth Syst. Environ. 9, 4455–4476 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-023-01751-0
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-023-01751-0