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The levels and trends of metabolic risk factors in the elderly population at the national and sub-national scale in Iran from 1990 to 2016

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Abstract

Purpose

Describing the trends of metabolic risk factors (MRFs) in the elderly population.

Methods

We used modeled data from previous comprehensive systematic reviews for MRFs among adults aged ≥ 60 years. Two stages of age-specific Spatio-temporal modeling and Gaussian process regression were used to estimate the mean of MRFs. We used crosswalk modeling to estimate the prevalence of elevated and raised Total cholesterol (TC), overweight/obesity and obesity, hypertension, and diabetes. Estimates were analyzed based on combinations of sex, age, year, and province from 1990 to 2016.

Results

Comparing prevalence estimates from 2016 with those of 1990, in the elderly population, the age-standardized prevalence of overweight/obesity, obesity, diabetes, and hypertension increased, conversely, the prevalence of hypercholesteremia decreased. The prevalence of hypertension increased about 141.5% and 129.9% in men and women respectively. The age-standardized prevalence of diabetes increased about 109.5% in females, and 116.0% in males. Prevalence of elevated TC at the national level decreased to 67.4% (64.1–70.4) in women and to 51.1% (47.5–54.8) in men. These findings were almost shown across provinces. In general, the northern and western provinces had the highest prevalence of overweight/obesity in women in 2016.

Conclusion

The rising prevalence of most MRFs, as well as the greater prevalence and mean of all MRFs in women, necessitate effective public health policies to reduce the burden of non-communicable diseases and run preventive programs.

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Data availability

The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

Abbreviations

GBD :

Global Burden of Disease

GLMM :

Generalized Linear Mixed Model

GPR :

Gaussian Process Regression

NCD :

Non-Communicable Disease

SDG :

Sustainable Development Goals

MRFs :

Metabolic Risk Factors

UI :

Uncertainty Intervals

WHO :

World Health Organization

FPG :

Fasting Plasma Glucose

BMI :

Body Mass Index

TC :

Total Cholesterol

DBP :

Diastolic Blood Pressure

SBP :

Systolic Blood Pressure

NASBOD :

National and Sub-national Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors

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Acknowledgements

The authors appreciate the partnership of Iran’s Ministry of Health and Medical Education’s Deputies of Public Health and Research and Technology.

Funding

This study was funded by the Iran Ministry of Health and Medical Education under number 981108956. We declare that the funding bodies had no role in the design of the study and collection, analysis, and interpretation of data and in writing the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

    Zahra Shokri Varniab, Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam, Ashkan Pourabhari Langroudi, Sogol Koolaji, Ali Ghanbari, Parinaz Mehdipour, Parnian Shobeiri, Zahra Esfahani, Yeganeh Sharifnejad Tehrani, Sarvenaz Salahi & Hanie Bagheri

  2. Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Clinical Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

    Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam

  3. Mental Health Research Center, Department of Epidemiology, Psychosocial Health Research Institute, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

    Mohsen Shati

  4. Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia

    Parinaz Mehdipour

  5. Family, Population and School Health Office, Health Deputy, M, Tehran, Iran

    Seyed Hamed Barakati

  6. Department of Older Adult Health, Health Deputy, Ministry of Health and Medical Education of Iran, Tehran, Iran

    Manije Moghadam

  7. Geriatric Mental Health Research Center, School of Behavioral Sciences and Mental Health (Tehran Institute of Psychiatry), Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

    Seyede Salehe Mortazavi

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  1. Zahra Shokri Varniab
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  2. Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Seyede Salehe Mortazavi.

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The ethics committee of Tehran University of Medical Sciences approved the study with the reference number of IR.TUMS.EMRI.REC.1398.045.

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The funder of the study had no role in the study design, data collection, analysis, interpretation, and drafting of the report. MS, as the corresponding author, had full access to the data in the study and had final responsibility for the decision to submit it for publication.

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Shokri Varniab, Z., Saeedi Moghaddam, S., Pourabhari Langroudi, A. et al. The levels and trends of metabolic risk factors in the elderly population at the national and sub-national scale in Iran from 1990 to 2016. J Diabetes Metab Disord 22, 1645–1655 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40200-023-01297-z

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