Abstract
Climate change is one of the challenges that humanity is facing and can have different effects on agricultural production. The effect of climate change is mainly related to the three factors namely increasing carbon dioxide concentration, rising temperature, and changing rainfall patterns. The present study investigated the relationship between grain yield of rainfed and irrigated wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) with climatic variables including minimum and maximum temperature and rainfall in different counties of Tehran, Alborz, Golestan, Kermanshah, and Fars provinces. The drought index (AI) was also calculated to quantify the drought phenomenon. Also, the relationship between drought index and grain yield of rainfed and irrigated wheat was calculated in annual and seasonal dimensions. The results showed that Gorgan (2306.8 kg ha−1) and Larestan (559.3 kg ha−1) have a higher and lower potential for rainfed wheat production compared with other studied areas, respectively. Also, based on the results of the drought index, the climate of Lamerd, Larestan, and Ravansar counties has become drier in the period 1995–2015 and the climate of Karaj has become wetter. The results showed that winter compared with other seasons had the highest drought trend during the studied years. The relationship between rainfed wheat yield and climatic variables in seasonal scale showed that temperature and rainfall in winter and spring had a greater effect on rainfed wheat grain yield in the study areas than other seasons. The relationship between AI and rainfed wheat grain yield showed that areas such as Gorgan, Karaj, and Larestan with increasing drought index value, rainfed wheat grain yield increased. Unlike rainfed wheat, Marvdasht county had the highest potential for irrigated wheat production compared with other areas with the averages of 4481 kg ha−1, while Lamerd had yield of less than 2.7 tons ha−1. The correlation between grain yield and climate variables on seasonal scale showed that the role of temperature was greater than rainfall in irrigated wheat agro-ecosystems. Also, significant correlations between yield and temperature were more in winter and spring seasons than in summer and fall seasons.
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MK: wrote the main manuscript text. H-RL: corresponding author, data analyzer. MO: revised the manuscript. SS: read and edit the manuscript. M-RM: revised the manuscript.
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Kouchak, M., Larijani, HR., Oveysi, M. et al. Effects of climate variability and aridity index on wheat yield in contrasting environments of Iran. Rend. Fis. Acc. Lincei 34, 503–513 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12210-023-01141-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12210-023-01141-9