Abstract
A landslide susceptibility mapping study was performed using dynamic hillslope hydrology. The modified infinite slope stability model that directly includes vadose zone soil moisture (SM) was applied at Cleveland Corral, California, US and Krishnabhir, Dhading, Nepal. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC-3L) model simulated vadose zone soil moisture and the wetness index hydrologic model simulated groundwater (GW). The GW model predictions had a 75% NASH-Sutcliffe efficiency when compared to California’s in-situ GW measurements. The model performed best during the wet season. Using predicted GW and VIC-3L vadose zone SM, the developed landslide susceptibility maps showed very good agreement with mapped landslides at each study region. Previous quasi-dynamic model predictions of Nepal’s hazardous areas during extreme rainfall events were enhanced to improve the spatial characterization and provide the timing of hazardous conditions.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Acharya G, Smedt F De, Long NT (2006) Assessing landslide hazard in GIS: a case study from Rasuwa, Nepal. Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment 65 (1): 99–107. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-005-0025-y
Anderson MG (1982) Predicting pore-water pressures in road cut slopes in the West Indies. Applied Geography 2: 55–68. https://doi.org/10.1016/0143-6228(82)90017-0
Andricevic R (1990) Cost-effective network design for groundwater flow monitoring. Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics 4 (1):27–41. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01547730
Barling DB, Moore ID, Grayson RB (1994) A quasi-dynamic wetness index for characterizing the spatial distribution of zones of surface saturation and soil water content. Water Resources Research 30: 1029–1044. https://doi.org/10.1029/93WR03346
Beven KJ (1981) Kinematic subsurface stormflow. Water Resources Research 33: 419–1424. https://doi.org/10.1029/WR017i005p01419
Beven KJ (1982) On subsurface stormflow: predictions with a simple kinematic theory for saturated and unsaturated flows. Water Resources Research 18: 1627–1633. https://doi.org/10.1029/WR018i006p01627
Borga M, Fontana GD, Cazorzi F (2002) Analysis of topographic and climatic control on rainfall-triggered shallow landsliding using a quasi-dynamic wetness index. Journal of Hydrology 268:56–71. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(02)00118-X
Brooks RH, Corey AT (1988) Hydraulic properties of porous media. Hydrol. Pap. Colorado State University, 3.
Chen W, Pourghasemi HR, Naghibi SA (2018a) Prioritization of landslide conditioning factors and its spatial modeling in Shangnan County, China using GIS-based data mining algorithms. Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment 77: 611–629. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-017-1004-9
Chen W, Peng J, Hong H, et al. (2018b) Landslide susceptibility modelling using GIS-based machine learning techniques for Chongren County, Jiangxi Province, China. Science of the Total Environment 626:1121–1135. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.01.124
Chen W, Xie X, Peng J, et al. (2018c) GIS-based landslide susceptibility evaluation using a novel hybrid integration approach of bivariate statistical based random forest method. Catena 164: 135–149. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2018.01.012
Chen W, Shahabi H, Shirzadi A, et al. (2018d) A novel ensemble approach of bivariate statistical-based logistic model tree classifier for landslide susceptibility assessment. Geocarto International. pp 1–32. https://doi.org/10.1080/10106049.2018.1425738
Cherkauer KA, Lettenmaier DP (1999) Hydrologic effect of frozen soils in the upper Mississippi river basin. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 104 (D16): 19599–19610. https://doi.org/10.1029/1999JD900337
Chiang SH, Chang KT (2009) Application of radar data to modeling rainfall-induced landslides. Geomorphology 103: 299–309. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2008.06.012
Clapp RB, Hornberger GM (1978) Empirical equations for some soil hydrologic properties. Water resources Research 14 (4): 601–604. https://doi.org/10.1029/WR014i004p00601
Colombo A, Lanteri L, Ramasco M, Troisi C (2005) Systematic GIS-based landslide inventory as the first step for effective landslide-hazard management. Landslides 2 (4): 291–301. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-005-0025-9
Dai YJ, Zeng XB, Dickinson RE, et al. (2003) The Common Land Model. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 84 (8): 1013–1023. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-84-8-1013
Deoja BB, Dhital M, Thapa B, et al. (1991) Mountain risk engineering handbook. International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), Kathmandu, Nepal, p 875.
De Vleeschauwer C, De Smedt F (2002) Modeling slope stability using GIS on a regional scale. Proceedings of the first Geological Belgica International Meeting, Leuven, 11–15 September 2002. Aardkundige Mededelingen 12: 253–256.
Dietrich WE, Wilson CJ, Montgomery DR, et al. (1993) Analysis of erosion thresholds, channel networks, and landscape morphology using a digital terrain model. The Journal of Geology 101: 259–278. https://doi.org/10.1086/648220
Dickinson RE, Henderson-Sellers A, Kennedy PJ,et al. (1986) Biosphere-atmosphere transfer scheme (BATS) for the NCAR community climate model. NCAR tech note, Natl. Cent. For Atmos. Res. Boulder, Colo. https://doi.org/10.5065/D67W6959
D’Odorico P, Fagherazzi S, Rigon R (2005) Potential for landsliding: Dependance on hyetograph characteristics. Journal of Geophysical Research 110 F01007. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JF000127
Francini M, Pacciani M (1991) Comparative analysis of several conceptual rainfall-runoff models. Journal of Hydrology 122: 161–219. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(91)90178-K
Francipane A, Arnone E, Conti FL, et al. (2014) A comparison between heuristic, statistical and data-driven methods in landslide susceptibility assessement: An application to the Briga and Giampilieri catchments. CUNY Academic Works. http://academicworks.cuny.edu/cc_conf_hic/150
Galli M, Ardizzone F, Cardinali M (2008). Comparing landslide inventory maps. Geomorhology 94: 268–289. https//doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2006.09.023
Hansen MC, DeFries RS, Townshend JRG, et al. (2000) Global land cover classification at 1 km spatial resolution using classification tree approach. International Journal of Remote Sensing 21 (6 & 7):1331–1364. https://doi.org/10.1080/014311600210209
Huang M, Liang X (2006) On the assessment of the impact of reducing parameters and identification of parameter uncertainties for a hydrologic model with applications to ungauged basins. Journal of Hydrology 320: 37–61. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.07.010
Iverson RM (2000) Landslide triggering by rain infiltration, Water Resources research 36 (7): 1897–1910. https://doi.org/10.1029/2000WR900090
Liang X, Lettenmaier DP, Wood EF, et al. (1994) A simple hydrologically based model of land surface water and energy fluxes for GSMs. Journal of Geophysical Research 99 (D7): 14415–14428. https://doi.org/10.1029/94JD00483
Liang X, Wood EF, Lettenmaier DP (1996) Surface soil moisture parameterization of the VIC-2L model: Evaluation and modifications. Global Planet. Change 13: 195–206. https://doi.org/10.1016/0921-8181(95)00046-1
Liang X, Wood EF, Lettenmaier DP (1999) Modeling ground heat flux in land surface parameterization schemes. Journal of Geophysical Research 104 (D8): 9581–9600. https://doi.org/10.1029/98JD02307
Liang X, Xie Z (2003) Important factors in land-atmosphere interactions: surface runoff generations and interactions between surface and groundwater. Global and Planetary Change 38: 101–114. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8181(03)00012-2
Liou YA, Galantowicz JF, England AW (1999) A land surface process radiobrightness model with coupled heat and moisture transport for prairie grassland. IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing 37: 1848–1859. https://doi.org/10.1109/36.774698
Lohmann D, Raschike E, Nijssen P, et al. (1998) Regional scale hydrology: I. Formulation of the VIC-2L model coupled to a routing model. Hydrological Sciences Journal 43 (1): 131–141. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626669809492107
Maurer EP, Wood AW, Adam JC, et al. (2002) A long-term hydrologically based dataset of land surface fluxes and states for the conterminous United States. Journal of Climate 15: 3237–3251. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626669809492107
Miller DA, White RA (1998) A Conterminous United States Multi-Layer Soil Characteristics Data Set for Regional Climate and Hydrology Modeling. Earth Interactions 2: 1–26. https://doi.org/10.1175/1087-3562(1998)002<0001:ACUSMS>2.3.CO;2
Mitchell KE, Lohman D, Houser PR, et al. (2004) The multiinstitution North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS): Utilizing multiple GCIP products and parameters in a continental distributed hydrological modeling system. J. Geophysics. Res. 109: Do7S90. https://doi.org/1029/2003JD003823
Mukhlison M, Baidillah MR, Taha MR, et al. (2011) Effect of soil water retention model on slope stability analysis. Int. J. of the Physical Sciences, 6 (19): 4629–4635. https://doi.org/10.5897/IJPS11.817
Montgomery DR., Dietrich WE (1994) A physically based model for the topographic control on shallow landsliding. Water Resources Research 30 (4):1153–1171. https://doi.org/10.1029/93WR02979
Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), USDA. Web soil survey. http://websoilsurvey.nrcs.usda.gov, accessed on September 28 2017
Nijssen B, Lettenmaier DP, Liang X, et al. (1997). Streamflow simulation for continental-scale river basins. Water resources Research 33 (4):711–724. https://doi.org/10.1029/96WR03517
Nijssen B, Schnur R, Lettenmaier DP (2001) Global retrospective estimation of soil moisture using the variable infiltration capacity land surface model 1980–93. Journal of Climate 14:1790–1808. https://doi.org/10.1175/15200442(2001)014%3C1790:GREO SM%3E2.0.CO;2
Ojha TP (2009) Magnetostratigraphy, topographyand geology of the Nepal Himalaya: A GIS and Paleomagnetic approach. Ph.D. dissertation. Department of Geosciences, The University of Arizona, 221. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10596-013-9347-1
O’Loughlin EM (1986) Prediction of surface saturation zones in natural catchments by topographic analysis. Water Resources Research 22: 794–804. https://doi.org/10.1029/WR022i005p00794
Pack RT, Tarboton DG, Goodwin CN (1998) The SINMAP approach to terrain stability mapping. Moore D.P., and Hungr, O. Eds. Proceedings International Congress of the International Association for Engineering Geology and the Environment 8, v. 2, Balkema, Rotterdam, Netherlands, 1157–1165. https://doi.org/10.1.1.41.5799
Parada LM, Liang X (2004) Optimal multiscale Kalman filter for assimilation for near-surface soil moisture into land surface models. Journal of Geophysical Research 109:D24109. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD004745
Pardeshi SD, Autade SE, Pardeshi SS (2013) landslide hazard assessment: recent trends and techniques. SpringerPlus 2: 523. https://doi.org/10.1186/2193-1801-2-523
Ray RL (2004) Slope Stability Analysis using GIS on a Regional Scale: a case study from Dhading, Nepal. MSc. thesis in Physical Land Resources. Vrije Universiteit Brussel, pp98. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00254-008-1435-5
Ray RL, Jacobs JM (2007) Relationships among remotely sensed soil moisture, precipitation and landslide events. Natural Hazards 43: 211–222. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-006-9095-9
Ray RL, De Smedt F (2009) Slope Stability Analysis using GIS on a Regional Scale: A case study from Dhading, Nepal. Environmental Geology 57 (7): 1603–1611. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00254-008-1435-5
Ray RL, Jacobs de Alba P (2010a) Impact of vadose zone soil moisture and groundwater in slope instability. Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering 136 (10): 1448–1458. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)GT.1943-5606.0000357
Ray RL, Jacobs JM, Cosh MH (2010b) Landslide suceptibility mapping using downscaled AMSR-E soil moisture: a case study from Clevland Corral, California, US. Remote Sensing of Environment 114: 2. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2010.05.033
Ray RL, Jacobs JM, Ballestero TP (2011) Regional landslide susceptibility: spatiotemporal variations under dynamic soil moisture conditions. Natural Hazards 59: 1317–1337. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9834-4
Rosso R, Rulli MC, Vannucchi G (2006) A physically based model for the hydrologic control on shallow landsliding. Water Resources Research 42: W06410. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004369
Reid ME, Brien DL, LaHusen RG, et al. (2003) Debris-flow initiation from large, slow-moving landslides. Debris-Flow Hazards Mitigation: Mechanics, Prediction, and Assessement, Rickenmann and Chen (eds). Millpress, Rotterdam ISBN 90 77017 78X. http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70025354
Reid, M. (USGS). Personal communication, April 23, 2007.
Safaei M, Omar H, Huat BK, et al. (2011) deterministic rainfall induced landslide approaches, advantages and limitation. Electronic Journal of Geotechnical Engineering 16: 1619–1650.
Sellers PJ, Mintz Y, Sud YC, et al. (1986) A simple biosphere model (SiB) for use within general circulation models. J. Atmos. Sci. 43 (6): 505–531. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1986)043<0505:ASBMFU>2.0.CO;2
Sidle RC, Ochiai H (2006) Landslides: Processes, Prediction, and Land Use. American Geophysical Union, Water Resources Monograph 18, pp 312. https://doi.org/10.1029/WM018
Skempton AW, DeLory FA (1957) Stability of natural slopes in London clay. In: Proceedings 4th international conference on Soil Mechanics and Foundation Engineering London 2:378–381. https://doi.org/10.1680/sposm.02050.0011
Spittler TE, Wagner DL (1998) Geology and slope stability along highway 50. California Geology 51 (3): 3–14. https://landslides.usgs.gov/monitoring/hwy50/report.php
Sydnor RH (1997) Reconnaissance engineering geology of the Mill Creek landslide of January 24, 1997. U.S. highway 50, El Dorado County, California. http://www.conservation.ca.gov/cgs/rghm/landslides/cal_geology/Documents/1997%20hwy%2050%20cal%20geology.pdf
Tarolli P, Borga M, Fontana GD (2008) Analysing the influence of upslope bedrock outcrops on shallow landsliding. Geomorphology 93: 186–200. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2007.02.017
Tseng CM, Lin CW, Hsieh WD (2015) Landslide susceptibility analysis by means of event-based multi-temporal landslide inventories. Natural hazards Earth System Science Discussion 3: 1137–1173. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-1137-2015
Van Westen CJ, Trelirn TJ (1996) An approach towards deterministic landslide hazard analysis in GIS: A case study from Manizales (Colombia). Earth Surf. Process. Landforms 21:853–868. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1096-9837(199609)21:9<853::AID-ESP676>3.0.CO;2-C
Welikhe P, Essamuah-Quansah J, et al. (2017) Estimation of soil moisture percentage using Landsat-based moisture stress index. Journal of Remote Sensing & GIS. https://doi.org/10.4172/2469-4134.1000200
Whitfield B, Jacobs JM, Judge J (2006) Intercomparison study of the land surface process model and the common model for a Prairie wetland, Florida. Journal of Hydrometeorology 7:1247–1258. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM547.1
Wood EF, Lettenmaier DP, Zartarain VG (1992) A land-surface hydrology parameterization with subgrid variability for general circulation models. Journal of Geophysical Research 97 (D3):2717–2728. https://doi.org/10.1029/91JD01786
Yuan F, Xie Z, Liu Q, et al. (2004) An application of the VIC-3L land surface model and remote sensing data simulating streamflow for theHanjiang River basin. Canadian Journal of Remote Sensing 30 (5): 680–690. https://doi.org/10.5589/m04-032
Yulin, C, Zhifeng G, Li Y (2008) A macro hydrologic model simulation based on remote sensing data. 2008 International Workshop on Earth Observation and Remote Sensing Applications. IEEE 1-4244-2394-1/08. pp 4. https://doi.org/10.1109/EORSA.2008.4620290
Zhang S, Zhao L, Delgado-Tellez R, et al. (2016) A physics-based probabilistic forecasting model for rainfall-induced shallow landslides at regional scale. Natural hazards Earth System Science Discussion. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-348
Zhao DZ, Zhang WC (2005) Rainfall-runoff simulation using the VIC-3L model over the Heihe River mountainous basin, China. IEEE 0-7803-9050-4/05, 4391–4394. https://doi.org/10.1109/IGARSS.2005.1525892
Zhou, SQ, Liang X, Chen J, et al. (2004) An assessment of the VIC-3L hydrological model for the Yangtze River basin based on remote sensing: A case study of the Baohe River basin. Canadian Journal of Remote Sensing 30 (5): 840–853. https://doi.org/10.5589/m04-031
Acknowledgements
We acknowledge NASA’s research funding through Earth System Science Fellowship, Grant No: NNG05GP66H, for this research. We would also like to thank Dr. M.E. Reid for providing information about Cleveland Corral Landslide area and in situ GW measurements. Geological map of Nepal was obtained from the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), Nepal. We are also indebted to reviewers whose extensive comments greatly improved the quality of this paper.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Ray, R.L., Jacobs, J.M. & Douglas, E.M. Modeling regional landslide susceptibility using dynamic soil moisture profiles. J. Mt. Sci. 15, 1807–1824 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-018-4896-3
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-018-4896-3