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Regional landslide susceptibility: spatiotemporal variations under dynamic soil moisture conditions

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Abstract

Quantification of landslide susceptibility variability in space and time in response to static and dynamic conditions is a fundamental research challenge. Here, we identify and apply new modeling and remote sensing observation techniques to statistically characterize susceptibility distributions under dynamic moisture conditions. The methods are applied at two study regions: Cleveland Corral, California, US and Dhading, Nepal. The results show that the temporal variability of safety factors is lower during the wet season than the dry season, but this variability, when scaled by mean seasonal stability, is constant annually. Relative variability differs by region with lower variability in Nepal, the highly susceptible region. L-Moment evaluations indicate that Nepal has a consistent, regional probability distribution, but that California has two distinct distributions. The variability in time is not normally distributed for either region. For both regions, transitional characteristic of safety factors show a strong power law relationship between the average duration and number of periods during which sites are highly susceptible. Because the mapped landslide locations typically had frequent crossings with brief unstable conditions, a consistent physical mechanism is pointed to as a possible cause of slope failure.

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Acknowledgments

We acknowledge NASA’s research funding through Earth System Science Fellowship, Grant No: NNG05GP66H, for this research. We would also like to thank Dr. M. E. Reid for providing information about Cleveland Corral Landslide area and in situ groundwater measurements. We are also indebted to three reviewers whose extensive comments greatly improved the manuscript.

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  1. Department of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering, San Diego State University, 5500 Campanile Dr., San Diego, CA, 92182, USA

    Ram L. Ray

  2. Environmental Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of New Hampshire, 35 Colovos Rd., Durham, NH, 03824, USA

    Jennifer M. Jacobs & Thomas P. Ballestero

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  1. Ram L. Ray
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Correspondence to Ram L. Ray.

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Ray, R.L., Jacobs, J.M. & Ballestero, T.P. Regional landslide susceptibility: spatiotemporal variations under dynamic soil moisture conditions. Nat Hazards 59, 1317–1337 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9834-4

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