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Evaluating Linearly Interpolated Intercensal Estimates of Demographic and Socioeconomic Characteristics of U.S. Counties and Census Tracts 2001–2009

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Abstract

The American Community Survey (ACS) multiyear estimation program has greatly advanced opportunities for studying change in the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of U.S. communities. Challenges remain, however, for researchers studying years prior to the full implementation of the ACS or areas smaller than the thresholds for ACS annual estimates (i.e., small counties and census tracts). We evaluate intercensal estimates of the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of U.S. counties and census tracts produced via linear interpolation between the 2000 census and both the 2010 census and 2005–2009 ACS. Discrepancies between interpolated estimates and reference estimates from the Population Estimates Program, the Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates, and ACS are calculated using several measures of error. Findings are discussed in relation to the potential for measurement error to bias longitudinal estimates of linearly interpolated neighborhood change, and alternative intercensal estimation models are discussed, including those that may better capture non-linear trends in economic conditions over the 21st century.

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Notes

  1. The ACS also releases 3-year estimates annually, but these estimates are restricted to areas with a population of 20,000 persons or more and are thus unavailable for all census tracts, most school districts and about two-fifths of the U.S. counties (U.S. Census Bureau 2014b).

  2. The LTDB provides a tract correspondence matrix for the 2000 to 2010 tract boundary changes identifying whether 2000 census tracts remained unchanged, split, consolidated, or had complex changes involving both splits and consolidations. They also provide a matrix of weights constructed from population counts at the sub-tract level (e.g., block groups) that allows users to produce estimates for 2000 tract boundaries using data provided in 2010 tract boundaries. We calculated a set of ‘reverse’ weights from these weights to estimate 2010 data using 2000 boundaries that are equivalent to the ‘backwards’ LTDB weights that the LTDB has now made available since the initiation of this study.

  3. Percent female differs little across counties and over time (i.e., a standard deviation of about 2 % points), so the absolute value of the interpolated error and the distribution of algebraic error is more sizeable in comparison.

  4. Estimates for one county (Kalawao County, Hawaii) were unavailable in the SAIPE.

  5. Due to the 65,000 person lower threshold for ACS data, we observe only 409 counties with a size of 60,000–149,999 persons in 2000; however, we observe all 355 counties with at least 150,000 persons.

  6. In 2005, the SAIPE switched the data source for its model-based estimates from the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS ASEC) to the data source used as the reference data in this study, i.e., the ACS (U.S. Census Bureau 2014e).

  7. The smallest two groups of counties had on average about 1.5 tracts and 2.5 tracts in 2007.

  8. Error tended to be larger compared to the ACS than compared to the 2000–2010 vintage of PEP data used in this study. We ascribe this finding to a number of methodological differences in the estimation methodologies (U.S. Census Bureau 2009b, 2014c). The 2000–2010 vintage of PEP data incorporates the 2010 Census into the estimation methodology. By contrast, while the ACS estimates come from continuous sampling of the U.S. population, ACS population counts are controlled to the vintage of PEP for the estimated year. Thus, the ACS estimation methodology employs older vintages of the PEP (that are estimated without alignment to the 2010 Census) than the 2000–2010 vintage of the PEP employed as the best available demographic reference data source in this study.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, USA

    Margaret M. Weden, Christine E. Peterson & Jeremy N. Miles

  2. RAND Corporation, Washington, DC, USA

    Regina A. Shih

Authors
  1. Margaret M. Weden
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  2. Christine E. Peterson
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  3. Jeremy N. Miles
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  4. Regina A. Shih
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Correspondence to Margaret M. Weden.

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Weden, M.M., Peterson, C.E., Miles, J.N. et al. Evaluating Linearly Interpolated Intercensal Estimates of Demographic and Socioeconomic Characteristics of U.S. Counties and Census Tracts 2001–2009. Popul Res Policy Rev 34, 541–559 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-015-9359-8

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