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Earthquake Forecasting Using Neural Networks: Results and Future Work

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Abstract

In 1994, a new earthquake forecasting method was developed, that integrated in a neural network several forecasting tools that had been originally developed for financial analysis. This method was tested with the seismicity of the Azores, predicting the July, 1998, and the January, 2004, earthquakes, albeit within very wide time and location windows. Work is beginning to integrate physical precursors in the neural network, in order to narrow the forecasting windows

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Abbreviations

ANN:

Artificial neural network

HL:

Hidden (middle) layer

IL:

Input layer

MA:

Moving average

MACD:

Moving Averages' Convergence-Divergence

MMI:

Modified Mercalli intensity

MOM:

Momentum

ODI:

Optimised decision index

OL:

Output layer

RM:

Real-modulated Index

RSI:

Relative strength index

SO:

Stochastic oscillator

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centro de Geofísica da Universidade de Coimbra, Av. Dias da Silva, 3000-134, Coimbra, Portugal

    E. Ivo Alves

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  1. E. Ivo Alves
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Correspondence to E. Ivo Alves.

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Alves, E.I. Earthquake Forecasting Using Neural Networks: Results and Future Work. Nonlinear Dyn 44, 341–349 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11071-006-2018-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11071-006-2018-1

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