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Land cover change and socioecological influences on terrestrial carbon production in an agroecosystem

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Abstract

Context

This study evaluated the contributions of land cover and land use change (LCLUC) and land management to landscape carbon production through a complex cause-effect path analysis of socioecological latent variables. Socioecological contributions to landscape carbon production are essential in landscape analysis, as their processes are both independent and interactive.

Objectives

We quantify the coherencies of social, economic, and environmental variables and their impact on net primary production (NPP) in an agroecosystem landscape. We ask whether LCLUC contributed to increased NPP and if land management and LCLUC play a more significant role than abiotic stressors on NPP.

Methods

We applied a socio-environmental system framework to evaluate anthropogenic and environmental processes in the Kalamazoo River Watershed in southwest Michigan, USA from 1987 to 2017. Structural composition and functional contribution to NPP were evaluated by land cover type. We synthesized remote sensing, gridded climate, social and biophysical data in a principal component analysis (PCA) to inform a partial least squares structural equation model (PLS-SEM).

Results

Land cover type contributed to anthropogenic processes. Cropland contributed to Land Management, forest and water contributed to Land Cover Change, and urban to the Regional Development construct. Anthropogenic activities contributed more to NPP than abiotic processes. Attitudes of environmental stewardship strongly related to land use change likelihood.

Conclusions

We disentangled anthropogenic and climatic changes’ contributions to terrestrial carbon production and the societal ties to potential carbon sequestration. No single landscape metric is suitable for all study areas; however, this framework is useful for a landscape-scale analysis of socio-environmental processes.

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Data availability

The datasets generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author upon request.

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Acknowledgements

We thank William Baule for contributing growing season length data for our analysis; Kelsey Watson and Kaylee Peterson for transposing census and stakeholder survey data; and Cheyenne Lei and Pietro Sciusco for statistical consultation. This work was supported by the Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center, U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research under Award Number DE-FC02-07ER64494.

Funding

This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship under Grant No. DGE-1848739 and the NASA Carbon Cycle & Ecosystems program Grant No. NNX17AE16G.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, Environment & Spatial Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, 48823, USA

    Gabriela Shirkey, Jiquan Chen & Sandra T. Marquart-Pyatt

  2. Center for Global Change and Earth Observations, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, 48823, USA

    Gabriela Shirkey & Jiquan Chen

  3. Department of Biology, University of South Dakota, Vermillion, SD, 57069, USA

    Ranjeet John & Reza Goljani Amirkhiz

  4. Department of Sustainability and Environment, University of South Dakota, Vermillion, SD, 57069, USA

    Ranjeet John & Venkatesh Kolluru

  5. Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, 48824, USA

    Jiquan Chen

  6. Department of Political Science, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, 48823, USA

    Sandra T. Marquart-Pyatt

  7. Forest Carbon and Climate Program, Department of Forestry, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, 48824, USA

    Lauren T. Cooper

  8. Department of Environment and Sustainability, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, 48824, USA

    Michael Collins

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  1. Gabriela Shirkey
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  2. Ranjeet John
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  4. Venkatesh Kolluru
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  8. Michael Collins
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Contributions

All authors contributed to the study’s conception and design. GS, LTC and VK performed data collection; GS and MC performed analysis; and GS performed material preparation and the first draft of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Gabriela Shirkey.

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Shirkey, G., John, R., Chen, J. et al. Land cover change and socioecological influences on terrestrial carbon production in an agroecosystem. Landsc Ecol 38, 3845–3867 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-023-01647-5

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