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Fire modulates climate change response of simulated aspen distribution across topoclimatic gradients in a semi-arid montane landscape

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Abstract

Content

Changing aspen distribution in response to climate change and fire is a major focus of biodiversity conservation, yet little is known about the potential response of aspen to these two driving forces along topoclimatic gradients.

Objective

This study is set to evaluate how aspen distribution might shift in response to different climate-fire scenarios in a semi-arid montane landscape, and quantify the influence of fire regime along topoclimatic gradients.

Methods

We used a novel integration of a forest landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS-II) with a fine-scale climatic water deficit approach to simulate dynamics of aspen and associated conifer and shrub species over the next 150 years under various climate-fire scenarios.

Results

Simulations suggest that many aspen stands could persist without fire for centuries under current climate conditions. However, a simulated 2–5 °C increase in temperature caused a substantial reduction of aspen coverage at lower elevations and a modest increase at upper elevations, leading to an overall reduction of aspen range at the landscape level. Increasing fire activity may favor aspen increase at its upper elevation limits adjacent to coniferous forest, but may also favor reduction of aspen at lower elevation limits adjacent to xeric shrubland.

Conclusions

Our study highlights the importance of incorporating fine-scale terrain effects on climatic water deficit and ecohydrology when modeling species distribution response to climate change. This modeling study suggests that climate mitigation and adaptation strategies that use fire would benefit from consideration of spatial context at landscape scales.

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Acknowledgments

Funding was provided by the U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC). Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S.G.S. We thank Steve Garman and two anonymous reviewers for helpful reviews that helped us improve the manuscript.

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  1. Jian Yang

    Present address: Department of Forestry, TP Cooper Building, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY, 40546, USA

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Science, University of Nevada-Reno, 1664 N. Virginia Street, M.S. 186, Reno, NV, 89557, USA

    Jian Yang, Peter J. Weisberg & Thomas E. Dilts

  2. U.S. Geological Survey, Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Boise, ID, 83706, USA

    Douglas J. Shinneman & Susan L. Earnst

  3. Environmental Science and Management Department, Portland State University, PO Box 751, Portland, OR, 97207, USA

    Robert M. Scheller

  4. State Key Laboratory of Forest and Soil Ecology, Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang, 110016, China

    Jian Yang

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Yang, J., Weisberg, P.J., Shinneman, D.J. et al. Fire modulates climate change response of simulated aspen distribution across topoclimatic gradients in a semi-arid montane landscape. Landscape Ecol 30, 1055–1073 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-015-0160-1

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