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A multilevel analysis of drought risk in Indian agriculture: implications for managing risk at different geographical levels

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Abstract

Drought is an important downside risk in Indian agriculture; and the spatial differences in its intensity and probability of occurrence are considerable. To develop strategies to manage the risk of drought, and to coordinate and implement these strategies, it is essential to understand the variation in drought risk across geographical or administrative levels. This paper, using a multilevel modeling approach, decomposes the variation in drought risk across states, regions, districts, villages and households, and finds it disproportionately distributed. About half the variation is attributed to between-individual (i.e., household) differences and the rest to between-population differences, mainly to states and villages. These findings suggest the potential for a critical role of states (policies) and local institutions (communities) in enhancing resilience of agriculture to droughts through the correct targeting of policies and support for the most appropriate geographic level.

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Notes

  1. We calculate the Simpson index to know the extent of diversification. The index is bounded between 0 and 1. A value closer to 1 means a higher level of diversification.

  2. The value of assets does not include the value of land used for agricultural purposes.

  3. A simple random sample of individuals with no correlation of crop loss among individuals will result in 100% VPC at the individual (household) level.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. National Institute of Agricultural Economics and Policy Research, New Delhi, 110012, India

    Pratap S. Birthal & Jaweriah Hazrana

  2. Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, 400065, India

    Digvijay S. Negi

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  1. Pratap S. Birthal
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  2. Jaweriah Hazrana
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  3. Digvijay S. Negi
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Correspondence to Pratap S. Birthal.

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Appendix

Table 7 Means and standard deviations of the variables used in multilevel analysis
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Birthal, P.S., Hazrana, J. & Negi, D.S. A multilevel analysis of drought risk in Indian agriculture: implications for managing risk at different geographical levels. Climatic Change 157, 499–513 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02573-9

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